NFL : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks : Week 5 Edition
posted Oct 02 2014, 06:45AM
story by David Loret
posted in Gambling, Betting

NFL Picks, Week 5 Edition : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks - Picks / Analysis

NFL Week 5 - Thursday's Edition

*2014 NFL Season Record: 30-19-0 +$1,868

*2013 NFL Season + Playoffs Record: 91-65 +$25,184

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob

Co Write-Up via David Loret (@doc_Spoon on Twitter)


Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

Vegas Line: Packers -8 (-107)

Vegas Total : Vikings/Packers O/U 48 (-103/-107)

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

Division rivals clash on Thursday night when the Vikings visit the Packers.

Minnesota comes into this one having beaten Green Bay just once in the nine meetings between these teams since the start of the 2010 season. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS at Lambeau Field during that span, the lone ATS win coming in a 26-26 tie last November while Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was out with an injury. While Green Bay has averaged 32 points in its past nine meetings in this series, Minnesota has averaged fewer than 20. Rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater is questionable after having thrown for 317 yards in his first NFL start Sunday, a 41-28 win over Atlanta. He was carted to the locker room with a sprained left ankle in the fourth quarter, and will likely be a game-time decision. If Bridgewater can't play, Christian Ponder will start under center. The Packers are one of only five NFL teams averaging fewer than 320 total yards per game in 2014, but they’ve faced top-6 defenses in three of their first four games. Mike McCarthy is 35-17 ATS versus division opponents as the coach of the Packers. He is, however, just 13-23 ATS versus defenses that allow at least seven passing yards per attempt with the team. Two of the past three games played between these two teams in Green Bay have gone Under the total. In addition to Bridgewater, the Vikings could be without top LB Chad Greenway (ribs) for a second straight week. The most notable injuries for the Packers are LBs Clay Matthews (hamstring) and Brad Jones (thigh), who are both listed as questionable.

The Vikings have been very up-and-down to start the year scoring 75 points in two wins, but only 16 points in two defeats. But their offense has not looked better than it did in Week 4 against the Falcons. Minnesota’s running back duo of Matt Asiata (159 rush yards, 3.4 YPC, 3 TD) and Jerick McKinnon (142 rush yards, 6.2 YPC, 0 TD) combined for 241 yards on the ground against Atlanta. They’ll lean on the running game again, as the Packers are allowing an NFL-worst 176.0 rushing yards per game. QB Teddy Bridgewater (467 pass yards, 9.3 YPA, 0 TD, 0 INT) was sharp in his first career start, going 19-of-30 for 317 yards with no turnovers. He added 27 yards and a touchdown on the ground for his team. Bridgewater makes high-percentage passes and is a quick decision maker. That should help him against a ball hawking Green Bay secondary that picked Jay Cutler off twice in Week 4. Minnesota ranks ninth in the NFL in scoring defense (21.0 PPG allowed), but ranks 17th in total defense (354 YPG) and is tied for 30th in third downs (50%). Despite what happened against Atlanta, this is not the type of team to win a shootout, so the Vikings will need to control the clock against a potent Green Bay offense.

Aaron Rodgers (999 pass yards, 7.7 YPA, 9 TD, 1 INT) told Packers fans to relax before their Week 4 meeting with the Bears, and that is exactly what they’ll do after Rodgers threw for 302 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions in a 38-17 road victory. WRs Jordy Nelson (33 rec, 459 yards, 3 TD) and Randall Cobb (21 rec, 239 yards, 5 TD) combined for 17 catches, 221 yards and four touchdowns in the game. This air attack should find success against a Minnesota defense that allows 7.6 yards per pass attempt (20th in NFL), and Rodgers has dominated this team since 2010, going 7-1 with 2,391 passing yards (299 YPG), 21 TD and 3 INT. RB Eddie Lacy (161 rush yards, 3.0 YPC, 1 TD) rushed 17 times for 48 yards and a touchdown in the victory over Chicago, but he needs to run much better for his team to be successful. That should happen against a Minnesota team Lacy piled up 270 total yards and 2 TD against over the two meetings last year. The Vikings’ rush defense is allowing 113.3 yards per game (T-15th in NFL). Green Bay’s defense, however, will likely be flying all over the field trying to confuse Teddy Bridgewater. They’ll apply pressure whenever they can in order to create turnover opportunities in their secondary. Both teams have protected the football well this season, as Minnesota has three turnover-free games, while Green Bay has not had more than one giveaway in a game this year.


Key Trends

  • Vikings are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
  • Vikings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 5.
  • Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
  • Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Packers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
  • Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
  • Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Green Bay.
  • Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
  • Over is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings.


Extra Points

1. Rodgers, who missed last November's meeting versus Minnesota, is 29-2 in his last 31 at home.

2. Vikings WR Cordarrelle Patterson averaged 39.3 yards per kickoff return, including a 109-yard TD, in two games versus Green Bay last season.

3. Lacy scored twice and averaged 102 yards rushing in the two matchups with Minnesota in 2013.


Dave's Pick : Over 48 (-103)

Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: *7PT MIX TEASER* $300 PACKERS -1 :: OREGON/ARIZONA UNDER 91 (-120)

Incarcerated Bob's *Members Only Pick*: $600 PACKERS VS VIKINGS *READY RIGHT NOW*




1. Incarcerated Bob's - Jace Amaro (TE), Jets: This guy is ready to breakout, now all he needs is for Geno to get his shit together (or maybe Vick) but that's another story... Chargers have had some trouble with bigger targets over the middle, Jace is the perfect guy for Geno to target in red zone for TD also could exploit the secondary if Jets establish running game early...He's available in most leagues so guess what ---> START EM!

2. Incarcerated Bob's - Updated Sunday Morning : ---> START EM!

3. David's Sleeper - Rashad Jennings (RB), Giants: Jennings should bounce back nicely against a 32nd-ranked Falcons D that just surrendered 213 rushing yards and three touchdowns to Minnesota’s RBs. Even if Atlanta loads the box, their 16th-ranked defense in QB points allowed is not formidable enough to snuff out a red-hot Eli Manning. Jennings should still rake in points during garbage time in that scenario. Jennings might not top his most successful outing of the year—23.6 points against Houston—the way Mark Ingram (18.1) and Giovani Bernard (22.9) did against Atlanta, but he has some advice for those who want to help him try.

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David Loret
From Paris. Editor-in-Chief. IBN Senior MMA and WWE Writer....

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