NFL : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks : Week 6 Edition
posted Oct 09 2014, 06:15AM
story by David Loret
posted in Gambling, Betting

NFL Picks, Week 6 Edition : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks - Picks / Analysis

NFL Week 6 - Thursday's Edition

*2014 NFL Season Record: 34-21-0 +$2,733

*2013 NFL Season + Playoffs Record: 91-65 +$25,184

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob

Co Write-Up via David Loret (@doc_Spoon on Twitter)


Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

Vegas Line: Colts -2.5 (-115)

Vegas Total : Colts/Texans O/U 47 (-103/-107)

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The Colts look to win their fourth straight game when they hit the road for a Thursday night matchup with the division foe Texans.

Indianapolis is coming off a 20-13 home victory over the Ravens, thanks to an outstanding defense that held its opponent to just 287 total yards of offense. The Colts will face a Houston team that is struggling offensively after having just lost 20-17 in overtime in Dallas. The Texans ran the ball effectively (176 yards) in that game, but QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for just 154 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. Indianapolis has won-and-covered in each of the past three meetings between these teams, as Houston's last victory in this series (both SU and ATS) came on Dec. 16, 2012, when it won 29-17. The Colts are 20-4 SU against the Texans, but 2-6 ATS in their past eight meetings on the road. Seven of the past nine games played between these teams in Houston have gone Over the total. Indianapolis has three major absences from this game to deal with in LB Robert Mathis (Achilles), who is out for the season, suspended DB LaRon Landry and DL Arthur Jones (ankle), who is questionable.

The Colts started the season 0-2, but are now back over .500 after winning three straight games. QB Andrew Luck (1,617 pass yards, 14 TD, 6 INT) wasn’t as sharp as he has been in last week’s 20-13 win over Baltimore, finishing with 312 passing yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. He’ll need to limit his mistakes against what’s been a solid defense in Houston. WR Reggie Wayne (30 rec, 384 yards, 1 TD) continues to be Luck’s favorite target, even after tearing his ACL last year. Wayne caught seven passes for 77 yards in the Week 5 win over the Ravens. His ability to create separation is truly special, and he should be a major X-factor against the Texans. The Colts rushed for 117 yards and a touchdown against a good Baltimore run defense last game. RB Ahmad Bradshaw (250 rush yards, 0 TD) continues to be productive for Indianapolis. He rushed 15 times for 68 yards and also caught four passes for 17 yards. Bradshaw, who has four receiving touchdowns this year, will need to find a way to continue running well, even against DE J.J. Watt (2.0 sacks, 1 INT, 1 TD) and this relentless Texans’ front seven. The Colts defense has been decent this year, allowing 240.4 passing yards per game (16th in NFL) and 101.8 rushing yards per game (13th in NFL). Their rush defense will need to keep up the good work, as they now have to face a red-hot Arian Foster.

The Texans were unable to pickup a victory against the Cowboy last week, but RB Arian Foster (404 yards, 3 TD) did everything he could to carry his team, rushing 23 times for 157 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught two passes for 15 yards. Foster has absolutely steamrolled the Colts in his career. Not counting the last meeting, where Foster left the game with an injury on the first possession, he has gained an eye-popping 867 total yards (173 YPG) and 6 TD in five career meetings with this division foe. He’ll need to find a way to produce, as he is the only player on this Texans team that can be relied upon to move the chains on a week-to-week basis. One player who must improve for this team to succeed is QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (1,056 pass yards, 5 TD, 6 INT), who has been miserable as of late. Over the past three weeks, he’s thrown just two touchdown passes and a horrendous six interceptions. If he doesn’t start taking better care of the football, the Texans could turn somewhere else at quarterback. WR Andre Johnson (27 rec, 320 yards, 0 TD) has looked great for Houston, including hauling in five passes for 58 yards in the loss to Dallas, but he will likely not find the end zone until the quarterback play significantly improves in Houston. The Texans defense is going to need to improve, as they have given up a lot of yards this season. They’re allowing 253.2 yards per game against the pass (22nd in NFL), which is not going to fly against Andrew Luck.


Key Trends

  • Colts are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 6.
  • Colts are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
  • Over is 7-1 in Colts last 8 road games.
  • Under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
  • Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
  • Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.


Extra Points

. Indianapolis WR Reggie Wayne (13,950) needs 55 receiving yards to pass James Lofton for eighth on the NFL's all-time list. 

2. Houston WR Andre Johnson needs 19 receiving yards to become the 15th player in NFL history to reach 13,000. 

3. The Colts are 11-1-1 all-time on Thursday, including a 7-0 mark since 2007. 


Dave's Pick : Texans +2.5 (+105)

Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: *7PT MIX TEASER* $400 TEXANS / COLTS UNDER 53.5 :: UCF +4 (-120)

Incarcerated Bob's *Members Only Pick*: $1,000 TEXANS VS COLTS (SIDE) *READY NOW*




1. Incarcerated Bob's - Hakeem Nicks (WR), Colts: ---> START EM!

2. Incarcerated Bob's - Updated Sunday Morning : ---> START EM!

3. David's Sleeper - Brendan Oliver (RB), Chargers: Even if Donald Brown plays this week, it's pretty obvious that Branden Oliver is the more explosive, dangerous player in this backfield. Replacing Brown on Sunday after the starter went down with a concussion, Oliver finished with 23 touches, 182 yards from scrimmage and two scores.  And even if Oliver loses touches to Brown, there should be plenty of fantasy value to go around against an Oakland Raiders defense allowing 21.3 points to opposing backs per week, 28th in the NFL.

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David Loret
From Paris. Editor-in-Chief. IBN Senior MMA and WWE Writer....

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