NFL : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks : Week 7 Edition
posted Oct 16 2014, 05:10AM
story by David Loret
posted in Gambling, Betting

NFL Picks, Week 7 Edition : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks - Picks / Analysis

NFL Week 7 - Thursday's Edition

*2014 NFL Season Record: 39-24-0 +$3,063

*2013 NFL Season + Playoffs Record: 91-65 +$25,184

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob

Co Write-Up via David Loret (@doc_Spoon on Twitter)


New York Jets @ New England Patriots

Vegas Line: Pats -9.5 (-103)

Vegas Total : Jets/Pats O/U 44 (-109/-101)

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The Jets look to avoid losing their sixth straight game when they head to Foxboro on Thursday night to face the Patriots.

New York is coming off of a 31-17 home loss against the Broncos, but New England has won two in a row, including a 37-22 road defeat of the Bills last week. The last time these two teams played was October 20, 2013, when the Jets won 30-27 as three-point home underdogs. Patriots QB Tom Brady did not throw for a touchdown in that game, but did throw an interception that was returned for a touchdown by Antonio Allen. Prior to that game, New England had won five straight games SU versus New York. Brady is 7-4 SU and 5-6 ATS in his career when facing the Jets under Rex Ryan. In the previous two seasons, New England is 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS, when hosting New York. Bill Belichick is 13-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog as the coach of the Patriots, but the Jets are 16-6 ATS since 1992 after playing three straight games with a turnover margin of minus-1 or worse. CB Dee Milliner (Achilles) suffered a season-ending injury last week season for New York, while New England saw two starters leave with season-ending knee injuries, RB Stevan Ridley and LB Jerod Mayo.

The Jets (0-5-1 ATS) have now lost five straight games after their opening week victory over the Raiders. QB Geno Smith (1,139 pass yards, 6 TD, 7 INT) was solid in a lost to Denver last week, throwing for 190 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He’ll now face the Patriots in New England, where he threw for 214 yards with no touchdowns and a miserable three interceptions a season ago. The Jets would be wise to feed RB Chris Ivory (325 rush yards, 2 TD) in this game. The last time these teams met, Ivory rushed for 104 yards. He rushed 12 times for 52 yards in the game at New England last year as well. Ivory’s powerful style of running has been an issue for the Pats, and it’s also helped severely wear down the defensive line by the end of the game. TE Jace Amaro (24 rec, 212 yards, 1 TD) figures to be a much bigger part of the passing game after a breakout performance against the Broncos. He caught 10 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown, and this should be more of a sign of things to come rather than a fluke, with Amaro being one of the only legitimate weapons in this offense. New York’s defense has now allowed 24+ points in five consecutive games. They’re allowing only 92.2 rushing yards per game (8th in NFL), but can’t stop teams when it matters most.

Everybody was ready to write off the Patriots just two weeks ago after they were crushed in Kansas City, but now they’ve won back-to-back games in impressive fashion. New England’s defense is allowing just 111.0 rushing yards per game (14th in NFL) and 208.5 passing yards per game (4th in NFL). They’ve allowed just 19.5 PPG over the past two weeks and could really cause problems for the erratic Geno Smith. Offensively, this team has scored 40.0 PPG over the past two weeks. QB Tom Brady (1,444 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT) has been on fire, throwing for six touchdowns and zero interceptions in that time. Brady is also facing a Jets team that he has dominated in the past. Including playoffs, Brady is 19-6 SU in his career versus New York with 36 touchdown passes and just 11 interceptions. He could be even more dominant against this horrible Jets secondary. With Brady turning his season around, TE Rob Gronkowski (26 rec, 341 yards, 4 TD) has also come to life. The tight end caught seven passes for 94 yards in the win over Buffalo. He’s a monster working the middle of the field and could pose some real serious problems for the Jets. RB Shane Vereen (216 rush yards, 1 TD) will likely assume the bulk of the responsibilities in this running game with RB Stevan Ridley (340 rush yards, 2 TD) out for the season.

Key Trends

  • Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 7.
  • Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
  • Jets are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
  • Patriots are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 Thursday games.
  • Over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings.
  • Over is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in New England.
  • Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.


Extra Points

1. Brady is 6-0 all-time on Thursday and has thrown at least two touchdowns passes in four of his six Thursday starts.

2. The Jets have allowed points on all 18 opponent drives into the red zone, giving up 13 TDs and five field goals.

3. Brady has 11 career games with at least 350 passing yards and four TD passes, third-most in history behind Drew Brees (15) and Peyton Manning (13).


Dave's Pick : Over 44 (-109)

Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: *7PT MIX TEASER* $500 PATS/JETS OVER 37 :: VA-TECH/PITT UNDER 52 (-120)

Incarcerated Bob's *Members Only Pick*: $1,000 NY JETS @ NE PATRIOTS *READY NOW*




1. Incarcerated Bob's - Brandon LaFell (WR), Patriots : New England Patriots wide receiver Brandon LaFell came through on our sleeper and breakout predictions by hauling in four passes for 97 yards and two touchdowns in the Pats’ 37-22 win over the Buffalo Bills. He took over the majority action on the outside wideout spot across from Julian Edelman, and he has proved that he can be a playmaker in this offense that has craved it. Tom Brady has been a beast in the last two weeks, which makes LaFell being a part of this offense more exciting. LaFell is going to be a popular waiver wire add this week with his WR3 potential as a bye fill-in. ---> START EM!

2. Incarcerated Bob's - Tre Mason (RB) Rams : The rookie led the Rams in rushing against the 49ers on Monday Night Football, and he has already shown more flash than the veteran backs in St. Louis. While the Rams face Seattle in Week 7, he’s still a rookie to consider adding for the future. ---> START EM!

3. David's Sleeper - Andre Holmes (WR), Raiders : Andre Holmes is the primary beneficiary of this shift, leading the team with seven targets per game. James Jones is a close second with 6.7. Holmes stepped into the WR2 role thanks to ineffective play by Denarius Moore and injuries to Rod Streater and Vincent Brown. Jones is the more popular of the two receivers—owned in 46.2 percent of ESPN leagues—based largely on his Packers pedigree. But Holmes—just 0.5 percent owned—deserves the nod this week based on availability and results. Holmes averaged 11.2 fantasy points per game in his four starts to Jones’ 9.8 PPG in five. Oakland faces a Cardinals defense ravaged by injuries and suspensions, yielding the league’s second-worst PA to WRs: 27.8 PPG.

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David Loret
From Paris. Editor-in-Chief. IBN Senior MMA and WWE Writer....

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