NFL : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks : Week 8 Edition
posted Oct 23 2014, 05:48AM
story by David Loret
posted in Gambling, Betting
 

NFL Picks, Week 8 Edition : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks - Picks / Analysis

NFL Week 8 - Thursday's Edition

*2014 NFL Season Record: 39-24-0 +$3,063

*2013 NFL Season + Playoffs Record: 91-65 +$25,184

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob

Co Write-Up via David Loret (@doc_Spoon on Twitter)

 

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos

Vegas Line: Broncos -8 (-105)

Vegas Total : Chargers/Broncos O/U 51.5 (-105/-105)

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The Chargers look to get back in the win column on Thursday night when they visit a red-hot Broncos team in search of a fourth straight victory.

San Diego hosted Kansas City in Week 7 and lost 23-20 on a game-winning field goal by Cairo Santos with just 21 seconds remaining. Meanwhile, Denver steamrolled San Francisco in a 42-17 home victory last week. Broncos QB Peyton Manning became the NFL’s all-time leader in touchdown passes during that game, but he is just 3-8 ATS versus the Chargers in his career, while San Diego QB Philip Rivers is 11-6 ATS versus Denver. Since 2012, the Broncos are 2-1 SU when hosting in this series, but the Chargers are 2-0-1 ATS in those games. Denver has won five of the past six games between these teams SU. Over the past two seasons, San Diego is 11-3 ATS as an underdog, and the club is also 14-5 ATS off one or more consecutive Unders over the past three seasons. The Broncos, however, are 19-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over this same timeframe. They’re also 21-8 ATS in games played on a grass field during that time. CBs Brandon Flowers (concussion) and Jason Verrett (shoulder) are both questionable to return for the Chargers in this game, while RBs Donald Brown (concussion) and Ryan Mathews (knee) remain out. RB Montee Ball (groin) will likely miss this game for the Broncos, but should be back in Week 9.

The Chargers had a golden opportunity to make a statement in their division, but they were unable to hold off the Chiefs last week. QB Philip Rivers (1,961 pass yards, 17 TD, 3 INT) had his worst game of the season, going 17-of-31 for 205 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. The quarterback wasn’t as accurate as he has been this season, but he should be able to bounce back against this extremely beatable Broncos’ secondary. After back-to-back games with over 100 rushing yards, RB Branden Oliver (316 rush yards, 2 TD) gained just 67 yards on 15 carries (4.5 YPC) last week. The Broncos’ defensive line has done a solid job of stopping the run this season, so this matchup is not favorable for the Chargers’ backup. TE Antonio Gates (27 rec, 363 yards, 7 TD) continues to fight off Father Time, catching three passes for 61 yards and a touchdown in the loss to the Chiefs. He’ll need to work the middle of the field successfully if the Chargers are going to win in Denver. San Diego is allowing just 209.6 passing yards per game (3rd in NFL) and 106.9 rushing yards per game (13th in NFL). They’ll likely allow the Broncos to run the ball in order to have extra pass coverage.

Denver put on a dominant display Sunday night against the 49ers. Defensively, the Broncos didn’t force any turnovers but they did allow just 310 total yards to an offense that is capable of exploding on occasion. They also held the 49ers to just 3-of-13 on third down conversions. Denver is allowing just 74.3 rushing yards per game (3rd in NFL), so they will make running the ball extremely tough on Branden Oliver. QB Peyton Manning (1,848 pass yards, 19 TD, 3 INT) lit up the 49ers with 318 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions in the game. It seems as though it doesn’t matter what defense he’s playing at this point, as Manning is capable of throwing on anybody, so the Chargers will have to drop their linebackers into coverage more than they’d like. That means RB Ronnie Hillman (240 rush yards, 2 TD) will have plenty of room to run. He had 74 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries against the 49ers. Hillman also caught four passes for 29 yards while proving not to be a liability in the pass-blocking department. WR Demaryius Thomas (39 rec, 662 yards, 6 TD) continues to be Peyton Manning’s go-to-guy this season. He caught eight passes for 171 yards and two touchdowns in the win over San Francisco. The Chargers will have a lot of trouble stopping somebody with his combination of size and speed.

Key Trends

  • Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Chargers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Under is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 vs. AFC West.
  • Denver Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their L8 home games against the San Diego Chargers
  • Over is 11-2 in Broncos last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Chargers are 7-0-4 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Denver.
  • Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
  • Road team is 12-4-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings.

 

Extra Points

1. Rivers' six consecutive multi-TD games are tied with Dan Fouts (1981) for the most in team history, while Manning has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 12 straight games. 

2. Broncos TE Julius Thomas needs one TD reception to become the first player in club history with 10 or more TD catches in consecutive seasons.

3. San Diego TE Antonio Gates needs 29 receiving yards to surpass Hall of Famer Lance Alworth (9,584) as the franchise's all-time leader.

Dave's Pick : Over 51.5 (-105)

Incarcerated Bob's *Members Only Pick*: $600 BRONCOS / CHARGERS OVER 51 (-110) *READY NOW*

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IBN FANTASY SLEEPERS

1. Incarcerated Bob's - Kenny Stills (WR), Saints : Stills is playing over 56 percent of the offensive snaps and is coming off a breakout 5-103-1 game against the Lions. His targets are inconsistent, meaning Stills carries plenty of risk. But this tilt with Green Bay has the looks of another potential boom for the second-year receiver out of Oklahoma. The Packers have defended the pass generally well in 2014, but I'm attacking this potential shootout with an astronomically-high over-under. Somebody has to score the touchdowns. Both CBs Sam Shields (knee) and Tramon Williams (ankle) are less than 100 percent. With Jimmy Graham (shoulder) also nowhere near 100 percent, Stills should see an uptick in targets for the second consecutive week. He's a high-upside WR4/5. ---> START EM!

2. David's Sleeper - Kyle Orton (QB), Jets : Orton is averaging 41 attempts and 296 yards passing across his three starts, while completing 68.3 percent of his throws with a 5:3 TD:INT ratio. There may not be a more underrated signal caller in fantasy at the moment, even if Orton doesn't look great in real life. Orton has made Sammy Watkins an every-week starter. And with the Bills losing Fred Jackson (groin) and C.J. Spiller (collarbone) and inserting Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown at running back, they may lean even more on Orton and the passing game against the Jets' stout run defense. Unfortunately for the Jets, their pass defense doesn't match their run defense. The Jets are allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and have coughed up a league-high 18 passing scores. Orton makes for a fine streaming option, as long as the winds aren't terrible at the Meadowlands.

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**All NFL Lines are from 5Dimes & Bookmaker (5Dimes.eu / Bookmaker.eu)**

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David Loret
From Paris. Editor-in-Chief. IBN Senior MMA and WWE Writer....





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