NFL : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks : Week 9 Edition
posted Oct 30 2014, 05:51AM
story by David Loret
posted in Gambling, Betting

NFL Picks, Week 9 Edition : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks - Picks / Analysis

NFL Week 9 - Thursday's Edition

*2014 NFL Season Record: 52-31-0 +$5,833

*2013 NFL Season + Playoffs Record: 91-65 +$25,184

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob

Co Write-Up via David Loret (@doc_Spoon on Twitter)


New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

Vegas Line: NO -3 (+103)

Vegas Total : Carolina/NO O/U 49 (-105/-105)

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

Both the Saints and Panthers look to get back to the .500 mark when the two square off in Charlotte on Thursday night.

New Orleans hosted Green Bay Sunday night and came away with a huge 44-23 victory behind 311 yards and three touchdowns from QB Drew Brees. Carolina QB Cam Newton was wildly inefficient in Week 8, finishing with 171 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. He was unable to produce a touchdown scoring drive for his team, losing 13-9 at home against the Seahawks. The Panthers are 3-1 (SU and ATS) over the past two seasons in this series, including 2-0 (SU and ATS) when hosting the Saints during that time. Since 1992, New Orleans is 10-3 ATS when facing a defense that is allowing more than 375 yards per game during the second half of the season. The Panthers, however, are 8-2 ATS versus teams that allow 24 or more points per game on the year over the past three seasons. They are also 9-3 ATS when facing a team with a losing record in that span. RB Pierre Thomas (ribs) is out for New Orleans while teammate RB Khiry Robinson (arm) is questionable. Carolina's main injury concerns are on the defensive side of the ball with S Thomas DeCoud (hamstring), LB Chase Blackburn (knee) and CB Bene Benwikere (ankle) all questionable for Thursday night.

Can the Saints pick up a key road victory on Thursday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2014 regular season and playoffs. The experts have remained hot over the past six weeks, combining for a 57% ATS mark (54-40). StatFox Scott is 71% ATS (17-7) in Best Bets during this timeframe, and 63% ATS (20-12) on the season. StatFox Dave is 62% ATS (16-10) in Best Bets during these six weeks to improve to 56% ATS (20-16) on the season, while StatFox Brian has gone 59% ATS (13-9) in NFL Best Bets since Week 3, and continues to roll in NFL Totals with a stellar 71% record (17-7) for the season.

The Saints picked up a victory in a must-win home meeting with the Packers last week, and a lot of that had to do with the play of QB Drew Brees (2,227 pass yards, 14 TD, 7 INT). Brees was 27-of-32 in the game with a passer rating of 138.4. He was not going to let the Saints miss the playoffs that easily. Another player who really stepped up in that win was RB Mark Ingram (331 rush yards, 4 TD), who rushed 24 times for 172 yards and a touchdown versus Green Bay. He’ll now face a Carolina defense that is allowing 135.3 rushing yards per game (28th in NFL). He should be in for yet another big game as long as he continues put his head down and run with power. TE Jimmy Graham (39 rec, 435 yards, 4 TD) caught five passes for 59 yards and a touchdown in the win. He looked a lot better than he did in the loss to Detroit, where he was severely limited with a shoulder injury. WR Brandin Cooks (40 rec, 372 yards, 2 TD) caught six passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. The rookie is inconsistent, but really adds another element to this team’s offense when he is on his game. This defense has been good against the run this year, allowing just 101.1 YPG (10th in NFL). That could, however, just be because of their struggles against the pass. New Orleans is surrendering 289.3 yards per game through the air (31st in NFL) and will need to tighten up its coverage against Cam Newton and the Panthers.

Carolina looked horrible at home against the Seahawks last week and a lot of that blame will fall on the shoulders of QB Cam Newton (1,643 pass yards, 8 TD, 4 INT). The franchise quarterback was just 12-of-22 in that game with a passer rating of 61.0. He will have a golden opportunity to turn things around this week against a miserable New Orleans passing defense. The only players who showed up in the loss to Seattle were RB Jonathan Stewart (217 rush yards, 1 TD) and WR Kelvin Benjamin (38 rec, 571 yards, 5 TD). Stewart rushed 16 times for 79 yards, and also caught three passes for 15 yards, while Benjamin hauled in four of his seven targets for a total of 94 yards. They should both have a lot more room to run when facing the Saints compared to the Seahawks. The Panthers’ defense, however, showed up against Seattle in that game. They held the Seahawks to just 310 total yards and were able to cause two turnovers. This unit has allowed 243.3 passing yards per game (18th in NFL) and 135.3 rushing yards per game (28th in NFL). They’ll be hoping that their performance against Seattle was more of a sign of things to come.

Key Trends

  • Over is 6-0 in Saints last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
  • Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 road games.
  • Under is 6-0 in Panthers last 6 vs. NFC South.
  • Under is 5-0 in Panthers last 5 games in Week 9.
  • Panthers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Carolina.
  • Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
  • Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Carolina.


Extra Points

1. New Orleans has allowed 31.3 points on the road this season.

2. Carolina WR Kelvin Benjamin is second among rookies with 571 yards receiving

3. Panthers QB Cam Newton has six rushing touchdowns against the Saints in six career games.

Dave's Pick : Over 49 (-105)







1. Incarcerated Bob's - Martavis Bryant (WR), Steelers : The rookie outshined second-year wide receiver Markus Wheaton once again. Bryant caught five of seven targets for 83 yards and two touchdowns against the Colts in a record-breaking game for Ben Roethlisberger. Antonio Brown eats first in this offense, but the second receiver in Pittsburgh has often been relevant to fantasy owners, going back to when Brown and Mike Wallace played together and last season with Emmanuel Sanders. The Steelers face the Ravens and Jets in the next two weeks, both of which rank among the worst defenses against wide receivers, allowing more than 29 fantasy points to the position per week. The Steelers’ newest deep threat toy should be a popular waiver pick this week.---> START EM!

2. David's Sleeper - Tim Wright (TE), Patriots : One week after not getting thrown to at all against the Jets, Wright was targeted seven times for seven catches, 61 yards and a touchdown against the Bears. If you own Martellus Bennett or Delanie Walker, who are on byes this week, Wright is a solid option again versus Denver in Week 9. He has three touchdown catches in his past four games and Denver hasn't been good against TE's so far this year.

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David Loret
From Paris. Editor-in-Chief. IBN Senior MMA and WWE Writer....

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