NFL : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks : Week 12 Edition
posted Nov 20 2014, 06:28AM
story by David Loret
posted in Gambling, Betting

NFL Picks, Week 12 Edition : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks - Picks / Analysis

NFL Week 12 - Thursday's Edition

*2014 NFL Season Record: 63-48-0 +$1,438

*2013 NFL Season + Playoffs Record: 91-65 +$25,184

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob

Co Write-Up via David Loret (@doc_Spoon on Twitter)


Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders

Vegas Line: Chiefs -7 (-115)

Vegas Total : Chief/Raiders O/U 42.5 (-105/-105)

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The Raiders look to earn their first victory of the season when they host the red-hot Chiefs on Thursday night.

Kansas City outlasted the Seahawks 24-20 last week as a 1-point home favorite, giving the club five straight victories (SU and ATS) and seven wins in the past eight contests (SU and ATS). Meanwhile Oakland failed to score more than 17 points for the fourth time in five games in a 13-6 loss at San Diego, but did cover the spread as a 10-point underdog. The last time the Chiefs visited Oakland, Jamaal Charles racked up 215 yards from scrimmage and five total touchdowns in a 56-31 victory. Kansas City is 9-2 SU and ATS in its past 11 meetings in Oakland. In fact, the road team is 18-4 ATS in this head-to-head series dating back to the start of the 2003 season. While the Chiefs are one of only two NFL teams allowing an average of 17.5 or fewer points per game, the Raiders are one of only three offenses in the league scoring an average of 17 or fewer points per contest. The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS off a non-conference game over the last two years and 11-3 ATS in road games during that span. They are, however, just 8-26 ATS in road games after gaining 175+ rushing yards in their previous game since 1992. Both teams have several players on the injury list, with the most notables being WR Donnie Avery (groin), WR A.J. Jenkins (shoulder), TE Anthony Fasano (knee), CB Chris Owens (knee) and CB Jamell Fleming (hamstring), who are is questionable for Kansas City. For Oakland, four questionable players that stand out are CB Carlos Rogers (knee), S Jonathan Dowling (back), TE David Ausberry (foot) and G Gabe Jackson (knee).

The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams and football and it’s largely due to the play of their defense. They are the best team in the league at defending air attacks, allowing just 201.6 passing yards per game. They should have no trouble making things extremely difficult on Derek Carr. Offensively, QB Alex Smith (1,977 pass yards, 11 TD, 4 INT) continues to win games despite not having the arm that many other quarterbacks in this league have. Smith is a game manager and does an excellent job of doing just that. It’ll take an extremely poor performance for him to allow his team to lose this game to a winless Raiders team. RB Jamaal Charles (692 rush yards, 8 TD) has been in a groove recently, rushing for seven touchdowns in the past five games. He rushed 20 times for 159 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Seattle last week and should be able to do something similar against an Oakland defense that is allowing 129.8 rushing yards per game (27th in NFL) this year.

The Raiders went into San Diego last game and kept it close, but they were unable to move the ball against a Chargers defense that is far from being anything special. QB Derek Carr (2,075 pass yards, 13 TD, 9 INT) threw for 172 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in the game, but he did lose a fumble. He’ll need to take care of the ball against a Chiefs defense that will be constantly trying to force turnovers. The Raiders are really lacking in talent on the offensive side of the ball. TE Mychal Rivera (37 rec, 326 yards, 3 TD) has been their best weapon in the passing game in recent weeks, catching 24 passes for 225 yards and three touchdowns over the past four games. He had three catches for 40 yards on five targets in the loss to San Diego. Somebody will need to step their game up if this team is going to beat anybody this season, and that somebody will likely be RB Darren McFadden (393 rush yards, 2 TD). McFadden has rushed for just 35 yards on 15 carries over the past two weeks and just doesn’t seem to have any explosiveness this season. Still, the Raiders will need to get their ground game going and he is the only one with a chance of producing there. This defense will need to be ready to stop the run against Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs.


Key Trends

  • Chiefs are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC West.
  • Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Over is 6-1-1 in Raiders last 8 games in November.
  • Over is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Oakland.
  • Underdog is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
  • Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Oakland.


Extra Points

1. Kansas City WR Dwayne Bowe needs 90 receiving yards to become just the third player in franchise history to reach 7,000 for his career.

2. This game has "trap" potential for the Chiefs, who have two huge games coming up - versus Denver and at Arizona.

3. With another loss, the Raiders would match the 2008-09 St. Louis Rams with 17 straight defeats. Those Rams teams posted the second-longest losing streak of the last 30 years - a mark only behind the Detroit Lions, who dropped 19 in a row from 2007-09.

Dave's Pick : KC -7 (-115)

Incarcerated Bob's *CFB/NFL TEASER* UNC/DUKE UNDER 73.5 :: CHIEFS -PK (-130)





1. Incarcerated Bob's -  Coby Fleener (TE), Colts : Both Fleener and Dwayne Allen have become top-10 tight ends in fantasy football. Allen is currently ranked seventh and Fleener is 10th in ESPN standard scoring leagues. Last week, Allen left the game in the second quarter with  ankle injury. As a result, Fleener took on a much larger role for the rest of the game. He caught all seven of his targets for 144 yards, a career high. While he didn’t score a touchdown, Andrew Luck can make anyone into a fantasy-relevant player. While Allen’s ankle injury seems to be minor, no official statement has been made on his status for Week 12. If he should miss this game, Fleener becomes a top-five tight end option this week. ---> START EM!

2. Incarcerated Bob's - Dan Herron (RB), Colts : Ahmad Bradshaw‘s broken leg opens up Herron to challenge Trent Richardson for reps. Herron (5-10, 212 pounds) has some bulk and has flashed more elusiveness than T-Rich. Jacksonville has allowed a back to total at least 99 offensive yards in each of the last three weeks. This tilt could make Herron one of the biggest surprises of the fantasy year. .---> START EM!

3. Incarcerated Bob's - James Jones (WR), Raiders : Once again, Derek Carr isn't Aaron Rodgers. Granted, he plays for the dreadful Raiders and doesn't have the supporting cast that the good ol' A-Rod enjoys in Green Bay, but he isn't your must start fantasy QB. But against a red-hot Chiefs team that might very well be ahead quickly, Carr will have to throw the ball. And while James Jones isn't your typical franchise WR either, he is a productive WR when targeted. He could surprise many as a WR4 tonight and might give you the edge you need to win your weekly game ! ---> START EM!

4. David's Sleeper - Andrew Hawkins (WR), Browns : Hawkins stands to profit from Gordon’s presence even if he’s rusty, given his league-leading 117.6 yards per game average in 2013. Plus, Atlanta ranks 27th in wide receiver points allowed, giving up 24.2 PPG. Hawkins already matched up nicely against this defense without Gordon drawing attention on the other side. The uncertainty Gordon creates should be enough to make Hawkins a fine call-up for Antonio Brown and Kelvin Benjamin owners on a bye, Emmanuel Sanders owners who are unclear about his concussion status or Brandin Cooks owners who are in need of a replacement.

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David Loret
From Paris. Editor-in-Chief. IBN Senior MMA and WWE Writer....

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