NFL: IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks : Week 15 Sunday Edition
posted Dec 14 2014, 05:45AM
story by David Loret
posted in Gambling, Betting

NFL Picks, Week 15 Sunday Edition : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks - Picks / Analysis

NFL Week 15 - Sunday's Edition

*2014 NFL Season Record: 82-69-0 +$1,923

*2013 NFL Season + Playoffs Record: 91-65 +$25,184

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob

Co Write-Up via David Loret (@doc_Spoon on Twitter)


Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

Vegas Line: KC -11 (-105)

Vegas Total : Oakland/KC O/U 41.5 (-101/-109)

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

NFL football betting action sees the Oakland Raiders taking on the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday December 14th at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.  On the season the Raiders are 7-6 ATS and they have an O/U record of 7-6 and the Chiefs are 8-5 ATS and they have an O/U record of 4-9. This season the Chiefs are 4-2 at home and the Raiders are 0-6 on the road. In their last games the Raiders beat the San Francisco 49ers 24-13 and the Chiefs lost to the Arizona Cardinals 17-14. The Chiefs have lost 3 straight and the first loss of the streak was the first win for the Raiders this season. Oakland has won 2 of their last 3 games, the other a 52-0 loss to the Rams, and they are winless on the road, which is why it is no surprise that they are double-digit underdogs facing Kansas City. Things are not looking good for the Chiefs and their playoff chances, but they are not out if it yet. After the Raiders’ game they finish the season facing the Chargers and the Steelers, who KC trails by 1 game for one of the 2 AFC Wild Card spots. Both of the Raiders wins this season have come against teams with winning records. They played great defense in the win over the 49ers and Derek Carr had a solid game and looks like he may have a bright future in the Bay Area. Carr passed for 254 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT in the win over San Francisco and while the Raiders do not have a great WR corps Mychal Rivera had 109 receiving yards in the 49ers game. Carr was decent in the win over the Chiefs earlier this season, but will be facing a KC pass defense that ranks 2nd in the league. One of the main reasons Oakland got their first win facing KC was that RB Latavius Murray rushed for 112 yards with 2 TD. He had over 70 rushing yards in the San Francisco game, but only averaged 3.3 yards per carry. He may be the key goy on offense yet again in this game, as the Chiefs only rank 31st in the league in run defense and they allowed a guy that just called up from the practice squad for the Cardinals to rush for 100 yards. Alex Smith had a big game in the loss to the Cardinals passing for 293 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. He has a decent WR corps, but the team needs to lean on RB Jamaal Charles, who is their big gun on offense. He was nicked up in the Arizona game, but should go in this one. He only had 180 rushing yards against Oakland a few weeks back and needs to play well in this game, which is almost a much win for KC. The Raiders rank a legit 7th in the league in pass defense and while they only rank 24th in run D they played Charles well in the first match up and also held the 49ers to under 100 rushing yards.


Key Trends

  • Over is 6-1 in Raiders last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Raiders are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
  • Over is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 games following a ATS win.
  • Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Under is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 vs. AFC.
  • Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Kansas City.
  • Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Kansas City.
  • Underdog is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 meetings.


Extra Points

1. Oakland has won four of the last six meetings.

2. Raiders K Sebastian Janikowski kicked a 57-yard field goal last week, marking the 47th time he has kicked a field goal of 50 yards or longer, trailing only former Detroit K Jason Hanson (52).

3. Kansas City WR Dwayne Bowe is one yard shy of joining Tony Gonzalez (10,940) and Otis Taylor (7,306) as the only players in franchise history to reach 7,000 career receiving yards.

Dave's Pick : Raiders +11 (-105)

Incarcerated Bob’s Pick: $400 KC CHIEFS -7 (1ST HALF) (-120)




Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons

Vegas Line: Steelers -3 (+105)

Vegas Total : Steelers/Falcons O/U 55.5 (-104/-106)

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

Julio Jones and the NFC South-leading Atlanta Falcons gave the Green Bay Packers more than they bargained for, especially in the second half of their very high-scoring Monday night matchup, but came up just short in the end. The Falcons will hope to bounce back at home as they host the dangerous Pittsburgh Steelers, who are coming off a big blowout win over their division rivals the Cincinnati Bengals and are eager to cement their position in the AFC playoffs. The Falcons still lead their atrocious division, so there is a great deal on the line in this one.

Don’t look now but the Pittsburgh Steelers are back to reprising their role as one of the most erratic and unpredictable teams in the league. They alternated between wins and losses in their first seven weeks of the year before going on a three-game run in Weeks 7-9, thanks in large part to Ben Roethlisberger throwing touchdowns for fun. Over the last month, the Steelers’ record again reads loss-win-loss-win. They didn’t look at all impressive in their last three games, with losses to the struggling Jets and Saints, and a thoroughly unconvincing three-point win over the Titans sandwiched in between. But Big Ben and co. were back to their best with an impressive 42-21 win against the Bengals on Sunday, with 25 points coming a big fourth quarter. Roethlisberger tore the Bengals’ pass defense apart with 350 passing yards and three touchdowns, while Le’Veon Bell had 185 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to go along with another 50 yards through the air and a receiving score. Bell is finishing the year incredibly strong. He’s averaging an absurd 237 yards from scrimmage in his last three games with five total touchdowns. That doesn’t bode well for the Falcons’ awful defense, which, apart from being 31st against the run per DVOA through Week 13, is also 28th against defending running backs in the passing game. And don’t forget about the Steelers’ explosive passing offense (ranked fifth in passing DVOA), which has Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown (who was supplanted as the NFL’s leader in receiving yards by the Falcons’ Julio Jones) and rookie Martavis Bryant (seven touchdowns in seven career games). Bryant, who’s had three of the Steelers’ 12 pass plays of 40-plus yards, will be a particular big-play threat against a flimsy Falcons defense which has given up 12 40-plus-yard pass plays.

Give the Atlanta Falcons, 5-8 leaders of the worst division in the league, a lot of credit. Most teams would’ve just packed it in after getting plastered 31-7 in the first half at Lambeau against the Packers, as Atlanta did on Monday night. Instead, the Falcons fought until the end, outscoring Green Bay 30-12 in the second half to come away with a more respectable 43-37 loss. Good things often happen when the Falcons score points. They’re 4-1 against the spread this season when they score at least 27 points in a game. They’ve done so in their last two games against the Cardinals and Packers (covering both times), and they’re more than capable of putting a few more points on the board with the way their quarterback-receiver combo of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones has been lighting teams up. Ryan has thrown for over 700 total yards with six total touchdowns, while Jones has 448 total receiving yards in the past two games, including a career-high 259 yards against the Packers. They will now face off against a sieve-like Steeler pass defense (29th in pass defense DVOA through Week 13) fresh off handing Bengals receiver AJ Green his new career-high of 224 receiving yards. However, the biggest problem for the Falcons could be the lack of a fallback option on offense if Julio Jones can’t come close to 200 yards receiving. Jones is already banged up with a hip injury, but head coach Mike Smith is optimistic he’ll play. Secondary receiver Roddy White has also been hobbled by an ankle injury and caught just three passes for 42 yards against the Packers, while the running game has been inconsistent all season. The Falcons will need all the points they can get, especially if their faulty defense fails to handle the Steelers’ many offensive weapons.

Key Trends

  • Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
  • Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 8-1 in Steelers last 9 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
  • Under is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 games following a S.U. loss.


Extra Points

1. Steelers WR Antonio Brown leads the NFL with 105 catches and needs five more to become the fourth player in league history to have 110 in back-to-back seasons.

2. Ryan is 39-12 all-time at home.

3. Roethlisberger needs two TD passes to become the 17th QB with 250.

Dave's Pick : Falcons +3 (-110)

Incarcerated Bob’s Picks: $500 PITTSBURGH STEELERS -ML (-148)





Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

Vegas Line: Eagles -3.5 (-105)

Vegas Total : Cowboys/Eagles O/U 54.5 (-102/-108)

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

Division rivals battle for first place in the NFC East when the Cowboys visit the Eagles on Sunday night.

Dallas dominated the Bears 41-28 in Chicago last Thursday behind DeMarco Murray’s 179 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Philadelphia, meanwhile, lost 24-14 as 1-point home underdog against the Seahawks. These division foes are meeting for the second time in three weeks after the Eagles embarrassed the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, winning 33-10 as three-point road underdogs. However, Dallas has been extremely successful on the road in this head-to-head series, winning four of the past five meetings in Philly SU and both winning and covering in its past two trips to Lincoln Financial Field. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in road games after gaining 6+ yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons. However, the Eagles are 34-19 ATS after being outgained by opponents by 100 or more total yards in their last game since 1992. QB Mark Sanchez will need to rebound in this one after throwing for just 96 yards last week. The injury lists aren't too bad for this game, but Dallas has DE Demarcus Lawrence (chest), LB Dekoda Watson (hamstring) and S Jeff Heath (thumb) all questionable for Sunday night, while Philly's only new injury is TE Trey Burton, who is questionable with an injured hamstring.

The Cowboys are coming off of a solid victory in Chicago, winning the game behind the excellent running of RB DeMarco Murray (1,606 rush yards, 9 TD). In the loss to the Eagles in Dallas two weeks ago, Murray rushed for 73 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. The Cowboys will look to ride Murray more in this game, and he should be able to find some bigger holes against the league’s 18th-ranked rushing defense. QB Tony Romo (2,923 pass yards, 25 TD, 8 INT) threw for 205 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in the win over the Bears last week. He will need to remain cautious with the ball and make high percentage throws in this game, as the Eagles picked him off twice in their last meeting. Looking WR Dez Bryant’s (73 rec, 1,034 yards, 10 TD) way more often could be a good start for Romo, as he targeted his top receiver just seven times in the Week 13 meeting. Bryant is as tough of a cover as any receiver in the league and Romo will need to utilize him if Dallas is going to win this game. Defensively, the Cowboys are allowing 30.5 PPG over their past two weeks. They will need to clean things up against this potent Philadelphia offense.

The Eagles hosted the Seahawks last week and just couldn’t get anything going offensively against Seattle’s elite defense. QB Mark Sanchez (1,500 pass yards, 10 TD, 7 INT) struggled in the game, but he did throw for 217 yards with a touchdown and no picks against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. He also rushed for a touchdown. Sanchez and the Eagles had plenty of success getting the ball out quickly, and they’ll need to continue to do so against a Dallas defense that is really struggling. RB LeSean McCoy (1,068 yards, 4 TD) had a huge game when these teams met on Thanksgiving, taking 25 handoffs and rushing for 159 yards with a touchdown. The Eagles are going to feed McCoy often in this game, and he should be able to really put up some huge numbers against this Dallas defense that is seemingly getting worse each week. WRs Jeremy Maclin (74 rec, 1,109 yards, 10 TD) and Jordan Matthews (56 rec, 709 yards, 7 TD) should be able to find plenty of space to operate with against a Dallas defense that is allowing 251.9 passing yards per game (25th in NFL). The Eagles defense is a nightmare to play against this season, picking off opposing quarterbacks 10 times while also forcing a league-high 21 fumbles. They’ve recovered an NFL-best 14 of them, and will certainly be looking to put pressure on Tony Romo in this game.

Key Trends

  • Over is 5-0 in Cowboys last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-0 in Cowboys last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Over is 5-0 in Cowboys last 5 road games.
  • Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Over is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games in Week 15.
  • Over is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
  • Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
  • Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.


Extra Points

1. Murray has failed to rush for 100 yards in all four career starts versus Philadelphia.

2. The Eagles rank second in the league with 44 sacks.

3. Cowboys TE Jason Witten needs four catches to reach 50 for the 11th straight season.


Dave's Pick : Philly -3.5 (-105)







1. Incarcerated Bob's -  Zack Ertz (TE), Eagles : Ertz was horrible against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, posting a goose egg on one target. Things can only get better. Aside from that Week 13 game, Ertz had been seeing consistent targets. Dallas is horrific against tight ends, as it has allowed the most catches (85), third-most yards (820), and fifth-most touchdowns (10) to the position. Ertz is the TE2 I’d take the stab at this week. ---> START EM!

2. Incarcerated Bob's - Chris Johnson (RB), Jets : Johnson is an appealing option in a venue with a certain sense of familiarity to the RB. Not long ago, CJ2K was the most feared running back in the league. His superhuman speed and well-rounded game were virtually unmatched. During his six-year stint in Nashville, he amassed nearly 10,000 yards from scrimmage and splashed scored 58 times. Unfortunately, the organization's downward spiral coupled with a deteriorating skill set made Johnson expendable. As a Jet, he's only shown glimpses of his former brilliance, but in a game with considerable personal meaning, CJ could exhibit Pro Bowl form. The Titans defensive line is a wall of pillows. On the year, only Atlanta and Cincinnati have surrendered more fantasy points to RBs. When you give up 131 yards to Andre Williams, you know you have a bad defense. Including Williams, Tennessee has allowed 100-plus total yards to a RB in five straight games. Johnson, who's carried the ball 35 times the past two games, is sure to add to that total. Remember the ex-Titan in 12-team and deeper leagues. ---> START EM!

3. David's Sleeper - Johnny Football Manziel (QB), Browns : Manziel is available in over 70 percent of leagues and in 68 percent of Yahoo fantasy leagues. If you find yourself still breathing and in the playoffs, Johnny Football could be a viable option to replace Cam Newton for the upcoming week. If you’re thinking long term, players like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers could start getting rest in Week 16 or 17 as their teams have secured themselves a real world playoff seed. Manziel and the Browns are fighting hard for a playoff spot, so he will still be very relevant in the latter weeks of the NFL regular season. There’s a lot of hype surrounding his first career start. Analysts don’t have much to work with for professional game tape, but Manziel did look good in a Week 13 relief appearance for Brian Hoyer. The rookie completed 5-of-8 passes for 63 yards, scoring the Browns’ only touchdown of the game on a 10-yard scamper versus a stout Buffalo Bills defense. Manziel’s dual-threat ability obviously gives him a more favorable projection as a fantasy quarterback. He faces the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 15, who allowed 50 rushing yards to Jake Locker in Week 3 and 107 rushing yards to Newton in Week 6. In that regard, the Bengals’ D has not done a good job at containing running quarterbacks in 2014. Someone like Ryan Tannehill, who has a tough road matchup against the New England Patriots in Week 15, may be a less appealing play than Manziel is. Even if you have a sound QB for the remainder of this year, Manziel could be a prime sleeper candidate for your keeper league next season. Now would be the time to scoop him up.



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David Loret
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