Kris Bryant 3B Cubs- 36% chance to win
Okay, so Bryant is the leader by a nose despite his recent struggles. The wunderkind is still batting .246/.355/.434, and leads all rookies with 61 rbis. However, KB is whiffing worse than an out of shape Stan Ross, and has been punched out 128 times already. There is some good news for Bryant though, the ball flies out of Wrigley in August, which means with a few thunderous homers he can get himself straightened out. Also, Bryant is still walking a ton, which means opportunities for counting stats such as runs will be there. Lastly the Cubies are in a playoff race, which means the chance for "clutch" hits will be there, which is a thing some voters love. So, despite the slump, Bryant is still the best bet to take home the ROY award.
Noah Syndergaard SP Mets- 28% chance to win
The one they call Thor has made a huge impact in the Mets recent surge. The future ruler of Asgaard has blown hitters away in his 15 starts, with a 100 strikeouts and only 20 walks in his 94 innings. So far he has dominated with a fastball that sits 97-99, and hits 100 from time to time, and a devastating Thor's Hammer curve. His change-up is still a work in progress, but at this point he has only needed his top two pitches. The 22-year-old has a 2.66 era, to go along with a tidy 1.06 whip. By the way, remember last year's ROY winner? It was Mets teammate Jacob deGrom, who Noah has almost identical numbers to through 15 starts. If Noah can keep this production up, and the Mets can hold off the Nats, you could be looking at back to back Mets ROY pitchers.
Joc Pederson CF Dodgers- 25% chance to win
Joc has struggled big time since his torrid early season start. His batting line has dropped to .222/.349/.452, which is not bad for a rookie, but a far cry from where he was at the end of May. Joc is the prototype for a 3 true outcomes hitter, (that's walks, strikeouts, and homers folks), but lately his at bats have yielded one outcome: strikeouts. Joc still has over 60 walks, but only a hand full since June. The good news is JP still leads rookies with 21 home runs, and if he can heat up down the stretch, many voters will have a hard time ignoring a rookie with 30+ homers on a division winning team.
Matt Duffy 3B Giants- 8% chance to win
You might be asking yourself, "Who the hell is Matt Duffy?", and you wouldn't be the only one. However, Duffy has put together a nice little season in the Bay Area. Duffy was called in to fill in for Casey McGehee, after the Giants wisely dumped that loser early in the season. All he's done since is hit .309/.346/.465, and lead all rooks with 3.5 war. He's also chipped in 9 bombs and 49 rbi, so all the right numbers are there. He basically is the opposite of Joc and Bryant, as he is a contact hitter who doesn't strike out often. His glove has been solid at third, and he has quietly been a key cog for the Giants. If the GMen make another big playoff push, Duffy will finally start getting some well deserved press.
The Field- 3% chance to win
I'm not going to dive deep into the list of guys here, but some of these players have had nice seasons, and would have a better shot if it wasn't for the top 4 guys. Addison Russell, Michael Taylor, Maikel Franco, Randall Grichuk, Charlie Heston and Anthony DeSclafani have all contributed to their squad, but would need a miracle to pull off a ROY award.
