Fantasy Sleepers and Busts
posted Aug 24 2015, 03:28PM
story by Chris Kapel
posted in NFL, Fantasy

Sometimes you eat the bear, sometimes the bear eats you

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Late round gems and early round mistakes are a huge part of fantasy football. Last season, Odell Beckham Jr. probably was a late round pick or undrafted in your league. He was also probably on the Super Bowl winning team. CJ Anderson was a late season addition that carried his owners into the playoffs. Who will those guys be this year? I’ve got a few names for you…

 

Sleepers

Ty Montgomery WR Green Bay- A WR on an Aaron Rodgers led offense? Yes please. Montgomery and Davante Adams will have to play big parts in this Packers offense with Jordy Nelson out for the year. The name everyone is now after is Davante Adams, but Ty Montgomery is worth a look.

Owen Daniels TE Denver Broncos- I debated between Daniels and Cody Latimer. Who will be Denver’s 3rd main target? Manning loves to spread the ball around. Gone are both Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. Latimer and Owens will see plenty of targets.

Markus Wheaton WR Pittsburgh Steelers- The Steelers may have the best offense in the NFL. Wheaton is their sure fire 3rd WR behind Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. Top targets on high scoring teams are always a good idea to have on your team.

Stevie Johnson WR San Diego Chargers- Johnson has a QB who can get him the ball. Whether you want to believe it or not, Philip Rivers is good. Johnson will shine in the Chargers offense.

Breshad Perriman WR Baltimore Ravens- Steve Smith and Perriman are the only targets Flacco has to throw to. Perriman has the speed and Flacco has the arm for big plays this year. Look for 7+ TD’s.

Nelson Agholor WR Philadelphia Eagles- Chip Kelly’s fast paced offense will spread the ball around. Rookie Agholor looks solid in the preseason and has the skills to shine in this special, fast paced offense. He is great in the screen game.

Ameer Abdullah RB Detroit Lions- Abdullah has been the star in Detroit this offseason. With Joique Bell still fighting a nagging injury and Theo Riddick lacking starter skills, Abdullah has the prime chance to take over. This is a very pass friendly offense and they like the spread the ball around. Abdullah’s value is even higher in PPR leagues.

Derek Carr QB Oakland Raiders- Oakland has finally surrounded their QB with skilled position players. Carr is a great talent on a bad team. This is the year he shines and shows Raiders fans signs of hope for the future.

Sam Bradford QB Philadelphia Eagles- Any QB in Chip Kelly’s offense has fantasy value. Foles was great last year until he got hurt and Sanchez wasn’t terrible. Bradford is in a new city with a new chance. It is his time to shine. I worry the Eagles may have goal line packages that are “Tebow specific.” Obviously, this hurts Bradford's value. Great backup pick with starter potential for injuries or Bye weeks.

Amari Cooper WR Oakland Raiders- This guy is a special talent and could put up ODB type numbers. He has a talented QB to get him the ball and has looked very good so far this preseason.

 

Incarcerated Bob's TOP 10 Sleepers

1. Brandin Cooks (WR) - Saints

2. Chris Ivory (RB) - Jets 

3. Matt Jones (RB) - Redskins

4. Tyler Eifert (TE) - Bengals

5. Nelson Agholor (WR) - Eagles 

6. Derek Carr (QB) - Raiders

7. Duke Johnson (RB) - Browns

8. Melvin Gordon (RB) - Chargers

9. Jameis Winston (QB) - Bucs

10. Larry Donnell (TE) - Giants

 

Others to consider:

Donte Moncrief

Marvin Jones

Dorial Green-Beckham

Joseph Randle

Teddy Bridgewater

 

Busts

CJ Anderson RB Denver Broncos- It’s hard for me to say this as a Broncos fan. CJ had a few good games at the end of last season and now all of a sudden he’s a first round fantasy pick? What happens if he sputters in the first two games and Kubiak decides to go to Hillman or Ball?  CJ is very risky first round pick.

Demarco Murray RB Philadelphia Eagles- Murray led the NFL in rushing yards last year in Dallas. He also was the only back in Dallas. He also ran behind the best offensive line in football. Chip Kelly likes to spread the ball around and Ryan Matthews is talented as well. Murray will be productive, but not first round ADP productive.

Marshawn Lynch RB Seattle Seahawks- The addition of Jimmy Graham will take away red zone chances for Lynch. Pair Graham's goal line abilities with Russell WIlsons feet and Lynch's TD production takes a hit. He can pound it from 2 yards out, but Seattle has more red zone options this year than last.

Justin Forsett RB Baltimore Ravens- Forsett was unknown in the NFL for 5 years before last season. Now all of a sudden he is a beast? He shined in Gary Kubiak’s offense last year, no question about it. Kubiak is in Denver now and everyone raves about a Marc Trestman offense. Chicago’s offense sucked under Trestman and they had better weapons than Baltimore does.

Seahawks Defense- First off, defenses shouldn’t be picked before the 14th round. Seattle D is currently 61st. Seattle D finished 3rd last year. Seattle D is currently being drafted before Brandon Marshall, Ameer Abdullah and Jeremy Maclin.

Golden Tate WR Detroit Lions - Tate had his shining moments last year, no doubt about it. His most productive games came with Calvin Johnson out with injuries. Johnson hasn’t played a full season in a few years. Tate just isn’t going to put up the numbers he did last year. You can’t draft a guy based on what he did last year. 2014 Peyton Manning owners know that.

Mark Ingram RB New Orleans Saints- Ingram now has to share the workload with CJ Spiller. A duel threat running game hasn’t been effective in New Orleans in almost 10 years. This is the year it happens. CJ will be the guy catching passes out of the backfield and Ingram pounding out the first downs. I see CJ vulturing TD’s and hurting Ingrams value.

Alfred Morris RB Washington Redskins- NOT EVEN EMMITT SMITH COULD RUN BEHIND THIS OFFENSIVE LINE

Joique Bell RB Detroit Lions- He is still injured and has Abdullah and Theo Riddick yipping at his heels. Bell may start the season as the starter, but he won’t finish it that way.

Lamar Miller RB Miami Dolphins- Miami has surrounded Ryan Tannehill with some skill, finally. Rookie Jay Ajayi is very talented and could take carries away from Miller. Miller averaged less than 14 carries a game last year. He has the home run speed, just needs some holes to run through. Being the 13th ranked RB is too high. I’d rather have Frank Gore or Jonathan Stewart

 

Others to look out for:

Martellus Bennett

Melvin Gordon

Andre Ellington

Keenan Allen

DeSean Jackson

 

Overvalued Players

Guys getting drafted higher than their production will be this year:

LeSean McCoy- Awful OL and QB situation hurt McCoy. Fred Jackson is also the fantasy killer in Buffalo.

Peyton Manning- 26 is too high for a guy who can’t feel his fingertips

Aaron Rodgers- No one will like that he is on this list. But is a QB really worth your first round pick in standard or PPR leagues? Maybe in custom scoring or where a QB is more valuable….

Carlos Hyde- Does anyone like any SF offensive player this year? Especially while playing on turf the Cowboys wouldn’t even let their starters play on more than 3 downs in preseason??

Latavius Murray- He showed some flashes of brilliance last year and had a few huge games. He has such a small sample size that there are safer picks to make. Murray could be a home run, or a strike out. Remember, he is a Raider.

 

Undervalued Players

Guys who will produce better than their draft position would suggest.

Frank Gore- Gore has always faced 8 man fronts. He now plays on an Andrew Luck led offense that can spread the ball around, not allowing opposing defenses to stack the box. I Truly believe this will be the best year of Gore’s career. I’m all in on Frank Gore

Jordan Cameron- Cameron played well in Cleveland when he wasn’t concussed. Now he has a better QB, better chance for targets and better overall outlook. This guy, if healthy, will be a stud this year.

Brandin Cooks- When Bill Belichick says he is glad he doesn’t have to face a guy twice in a year, you know he’s good. Cooks is Brees’ new main man. Thats always a plus for a WR.

Ben Roethlisberger- The QB on the most skilled offense in the NFL is being drafted way too low. He plays in the AFC North and they run blah blah blah. Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Markus Wheaton and even Le’veon Bell will be catching passes from this man. He’s on my team!

DeAndre Hopkins- With Andre Johnson gone, Hopkins is now the #1 guy in Houston. He had four different starting QB’s throwing to him last year and was still productive, That being said, Hoyer is actually an upgrade. Hoyer may not be the most accurate QB, but he averaged 13+ yards per completion in Cleveland. This is the year that Hopkins shines.

 

Chris Kapel
I have a Bachelors Degree from the University of Toledo in Communications emphasis Journalism. I also have a finance degree and working on my MBA. You...





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