NFL Report Week 15
posted Dec 17 2017, 01:02PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Sunday Week 15

*2017 NFL Season Record: 8-5-0 +$2,650

*2016 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

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Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: BUF -3.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 39.5 (-110/-110)

 

The Buffalo Bills are just 1-6 SU and ATS over their last seven games against AFC East opponents. The Bills will be at home this Sunday looking to stay in the postseason conversation with a win over the Miami Dolphins. 

Buffalo fought and clawed its way to an ugly 13-7 victory over Indianapolis in the midst of a snowstorm last Sunday. With Tyrod Taylor nursing a knee injury and Nathan Peterman knocked out of Sunday’s game with a concussion, the Bills’ quarterback situation is a jumbled mess heading into this week’s game. If both Taylor and Peterman are unable to go, Joe Webb will get the start against Miami.

In one of the biggest upsets of the season, the Dolphins knocked off the New England Patriots 27-20 with a fantastic defensive effort as 10.5-point home underdogs. After allowing 35.4 points per game over an 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS slump through November, the Dolphins are suddenly 2-0 SU and ATS in December and have allowed only 14.5 points per game over that stretch. Overall, Miami is now 5-0 SU and ATS over its last five games played in December.

 

 

Key Trends

The Bills are 2-6 SU in their last eight games after a win.

The Dolphins are 2-7 SU in their last nine games against their division on the road.

The total has gone OVER in the Dolphins’ last four games against the Bills.  

Miami is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games

Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

The total has gone OVER in 12 of Buffalo's last 15 games at home

 

 

 

 

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Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

4:05

Vegas Lines:

Line : SEA -1 (-110)

Total : O/U 47.5 (-110)

 

 

Playing in Seattle has been kryptonite for the Rams for more than a decade, as the team has gone 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games in the Emerald City. That being said, the Rams are 5-1 on the road this season while the Seahawks are 4-2 at CenturyLink Field.

The Rams struggled mightily against the Seahawks when they first met this year, as LA scored just 10 points. Quarterback Jared Goff specifically had issues – it is the only game all season in which the sophomore signal-caller threw multiple interceptions. However, the Seahawks secondary has had a rash of injury issues since then and will field several new faces for Goff and head coach Sean McVay to attack.

It might not always be pretty but the Seahawks are still winning football games. And though the taped-together defense is doing the job admirably – the Seahawks are eighth in points allowed – Seattle is winning football games thanks to Russell Wilson. The quarterback and MVP contender has been a one-man show, accounting for 32 of the team’s 33 offensive touchdowns this season.

 

Key Trends

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of the past 11 games between the Rams and Seahawks.

The Seahawks are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games after a loss.

The Rams have not lost back-to-back games once this season.

Los Angeles is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games

Los Angeles is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

Los Angeles is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road

Seattle is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Seattle is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games

Seattle is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

 

 

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New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line : NE -2 (-110)

Total : O/U 52.5 (-110)

 

It’s a rare spot for the Steelers to be in as a home underdog. However, it should feel somewhat familiar, as the last time they were in this spot was last season as a 7-point home underdog vs, you guessed it, the Patriots. New England went on to win that game 27-16. The Patriots have dominated this matchup during the Brady/Belichick era, going 10-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS. This includes four straight wins, with three of those coming by double digits.

Prior to their setback in Miami, New England was clearly the best team in the NFL, but the loss put them a game behind the Steelers for first place in the AFC. The Dolphins exploited some holes, but the Patriots have been excellent at rebounding after losses. They’re a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games following a loss, winning those games by an average of 10.5 points.

As mentioned, the Steelers have been rolling, with eight consecutive wins, but they’ve been an awful bet, only covering the spread once in their last five games. Either way, their offense has been lighting the world on fire over the last month, as they’re averaging 33.25 points per game over their last four games. Antonio Brown could very well be on the best stretch of his career during those four games, as he’s totaled 627 receiving yards and six touchdowns.

While it’s been full steam ahead for the Steelers’ Killer B’s on offense, the defense has taken its foot off the gas, allowing 28.7 points per game over the last three games. The Patriots are averaging 404.6 yards per game on the road, good enough for second-best in the NFL, so the Steelers might be in for an extended cardio session on Sunday.

It would appear as if this will be a high-scoring affair, and oddsmakers agree as the game opened with the largest total of the week at 54 points. Bettors will be interested to know that the total has gone OVER in the Steelers’ last four games, with the games having an average combined score of 59. As always, keep your eyes on the weather at this time of year when betting totals.

 

 

Key Trends

In nine regular-season games vs the Steelers, Tom Brady has 24 TDs and three INTs.

The Patriots are 47-8 SU in their last 55 games in December.

The Steelers are 9-0 SU in their last nine games after an ATS loss.

New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 8 games

New England is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road

Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

Pittsburgh is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

 

 

 

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