Super Bowl 52 Report
posted Feb 04 2018, 09:45AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

Super Bowl 52

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

 

 


 

 

Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots

6:30

Vegas Lines:

Line: NE -4.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 48.5 (-110/-110)

 

 

After 266 games, we are finally set for Super Bowl 52 with the New England Patriots ready to square off with the Philadelphia Eagles. The game will feature a familiar storyline as the Patriots continue on their path of unprecedented greatness, while the Eagles are attempting to once again prove the doubters wrong and win their third straight game as an underdog. Playoffs included, the Patriots and Eagles are both 12-6 ATS, which ties them for first as the best bets this season.

The Eagles can be found as a 4.5-point underdog at most sportsbooks and bettors will be interested to know that they’re 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games as a dog. The Patriots are 10-2 ATS over their last 12 games and they’ve been especially good when favored by 7 points or less, as they’ve covered 13 straight spreads in that spot. A larger sample size has seen them go 20-7-3 ATS in their last 30 games in that range.

With the Eagles coming through as an underdog twice in the playoffs, their backers will be happy to know that underdogs have been a big-money bet in the Super Bowl, going 13-4 ATS in the last 17 games. Prior to the Patriots’ Super Bowl victory last season, the underdog had won outright in five consecutive Super Bowls.

The Eagles defense will get a lot of love in the buildup to this game, and rightfully so. They’ve allowed an average of just 8.25 points over their last four games. All of those games took place at home, however, where they were a much different team defensively. On the road, they allowed 23.5 points per game. This is 11.1 more points than they allowed at home, which is the biggest disparity in the NFL in two seasons.

The Patriots defense is often overlooked, but they’re undoubtedly one of the league’s best, specifically when they’re on the road. New England has allowed the second-fewest points per game on the road at 16.1.

Taking a look at the OVER/UNDER total which is hovering in the 48-point range, the UNDER has been the way to go in Patriots games, as it’s hit in 10 of their last 14, including six of eight outside of New England. Given how stingy the Philadelphia defense has been lately, it shouldn’t come as a shock to hear that the Eagles have gone UNDER in three of their last four games. Of course, recent Super Bowl history inconveniently works against all these UNDER trends, as the total has gone OVER in four of the last five games.

Historically, the Eagles have had the edge in this matchup, as they’re 8-2 ATS vs New England going all the way back to 1980. This includes their matchup in Super Bowl 39, which the Patriots won 24-21, failing to cover the 7-point spread.

 

Key Trends

 

Tom Brady in seven Super Bowls: 15 TDs, 5 INTs, 95.3 QB rating.

The Eagles are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 5 points or more.

The Patriots are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss.

Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road

The total has gone OVER in 15 of Philadelphia's last 20 games on the road

Philadelphia is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games 

Philadelphia is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games 

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games 

Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England

Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing New England

New England is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 12 games at home

New England is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games 

New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games 

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games 

New England is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia

New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

 

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Risky Picks
Heavy interest on daring parlay bets with (straight up, spread and o/u) my beer money. Follow My picks daily to see if I achieve gambling alcoholism....





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