NFL Week 2 Writeup
posted Sep 16 2018, 10:11AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 2

*2017 NFL Season Record:

*2017 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets


Vegas Lines:

Line: Jets -3 (-140)

Total : O/U 24.5 (-110/-110)


The New York Jets return to the Big Apple for their home opener vs the Miami Dolphins in a position they’re not used to being in – as a favorite. The Jets opened as 3-point favorites to knock off their AFC East rivals and it’s the first time they’re a home favorite since December 5, 2016, vs the Colts. The Jets are fresh off thrashing the Lions on Monday Night Football and when they hosted the Dolphins last season, they dominated Miami for a 20-6 victory.

After years of incompetence at the quarterback position, the Jets may have finally found their man. Rookie Sam Darnold had an interesting debut for the J-E-T-S when the first pass of his career went for a pick-six, but the 21-year-old settled down (16-21, 198 yards and two TDs) and made plays when it mattered. It also helped that New York’s defense came out like gangbusters and forced Matt Stafford into throwing four picks despite not managing a sack. Darnold essentially just had to sit back and watch the Lions implode on offense.

So, by returning to MetLife Stadium, the Jets should be a trendy pick to win and cover this game as they’re 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games and when they hosted the Dolphins last season, they wiped the floor with them by limiting them to six points and only 30 yards rushing. The Lions rushing attack could do nothing vs the Jets front line (15 carries for 39 yards) and if they can force Ryan Tannehill to have to beat them, it could be a long day for the Fins.


Key Trends

The Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games

The Dolphins were 2-6 SU in eight road games last season

The total has gone OVER in four of the last five games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 48.0)

Miami is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 games

Miami is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games

The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 12 games

Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

NY Jets is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

NY Jets is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home

NY Jets is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games at home



Kansas City Chief @ Pittsburgh Steelers


Vegas Lines:

Line: PIT -4 (-190)

Total : O/U 53 (-110/-110)


The Kansas City Chiefs were 10-7 ATS in 2017 and covered in a big way in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Chargers. They’re on the road to face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 2, opening at +5.5 against the spread and +145 straight up. In a battle between veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger and first-year starter Patrick Mahomes, the total opened at 50.

Kansas City entered its Week 1 matchup as a 3-point underdog against the Los Angeles Chargers but won 38-28, powered by an offense that looks as dangerous as ever.

The Chiefs are carrying that momentum into Heinz Field as 5-point underdogs to a Steelers team that, wait for it, was lucky to get a tie against the Cleveland Browns.

While the Steelers still have elite talents in Big Ben, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and coach Mike Tomlin, the ongoing feud between the team and star running back Le’Veon Bell – and his absence – is clearly a distraction, and the Steelers simply don’t look as sharp as expected. The Chiefs have an equal number of offensive weapons (see: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt) that seem to be in sync already, so covering a 5.5-point spread is definitely doable … if they don’t win straight up.


Key Trends

The OVER has hit in 6 of the Steelers’ last 7 games (avg. combined score: 60.9)

The Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 September road games

The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games

Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games

Kansas City is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games on the road

Pittsburgh is 10-2-1 SU in its last 13 games

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games

Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home



New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys


Vegas Lines:

Line: DAL -3 (-145)

Total : O/U 42.5 (-110/-110)


After combining to score just 23 points in Week 1, it’s clear that both offenses have a lot of work to do on Sunday night, but improving upon uninspiring performances won’t be easy. Despite losing, each defense played respectable football as Dallas allowed just 16 points and 293 yards (fifth fewest in the league) while New York allowed just 13 points (not including the seven from the Myles Jack pick-six).

Low scoring has been a trademark of this rivalry recently, as the teams have gone UNDER in four consecutive games. Those four games had an average combined score of just 29.5 points, including last season’s opener in Dallas, which the Cowboys won 19-3.

Generating offense is an issue that Dallas might be carrying over from last season. In their final eight games in 2017, they scored fewer than 10 points on four occasions and averaged just 16 points per game in those contests, so Week 1’s eight-point performance could be a sign of things to come in 2018. It’s also worth mentioning Dak Prescott’s regression since his rookie season as he’s now thrown for fewer than 200 yards in seven of his last nine games.

Finally, we can’t mention the inept Dallas offense without highlighting the demise of their once-great offensive line. Clearly, there’s some injuries at play, which won’t be resolved in time for this game, but the current unit allowed six sacks in Week 1. Combine that with the factors I mentioned above and I think we have more than enough evidence to support an UNDER play.


Key Trends

The total has gone UNDER in the Giants’ last four games against the Cowboys (avg. combined score: 29.5)

The Cowboys are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games as a home favorite

In two games vs the Giants last season, Dak Prescott threw for 600 yards and 4 TDs

NY Giants is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Giants's last 8 games

NY Giants is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games on the road

Dallas is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games

Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games

Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home














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Risky Picks
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