NFL Week 3 Writeup
posted Sep 23 2018, 09:58AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 3

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

 

 

 

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: GB -2.5 (-140)

Total : O/U 45.5 (-110/-110)

 

The Green Bay Packers were lucky to escape with a 29-29 tie against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 2, and Aaron Rodgers and company head to FedExField for a matchup with the Washington Redskins with a 1-0-1 SU record as a result. Sportsbooks opened the Packers as 3-point road favorites with a total of 46 for the contest.

Rodgers clearly isn’t 100 percent after suffering a leg injury in the season opener with the Chicago Bears, but the star signal-caller still managed to go 30-for-42 with a touchdown and zero picks against a stout Minnesota defense. The University of California product was sacked four times in the game, however, so it’s going to be imperative for the offensive line to protect him. Rodgers is going up against a Redskins defense that ranks first in the NFL against the pass.

Green Bay’s ground game has been lackluster to say the least through two weeks, so the return of sophomore running back Aaron Jones from a suspension could provide a big boost for Mike McCarthy’s crew. Jones had 448 rushing yards and four touchdowns in 2017.

Just how good have the Packers been against the ’Skins in recent years? Green Bay is 6-2 SU in its last eight vs Washington, and 7-2-1 ATS in its past 10 vs the Redskins. The Packers are also 6-2 SU in their last eight road games after dropping the previous two away from home.

 

Key Trends

Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Green Bay is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games

Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home

Washington is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Green Bay

Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay

The Packers are 6-2 SU in their last eight games vs the Redskins

The total has gone OVER in 11 of the Packers’ last 12 games on the road (avg. combined score: 53.75)

The Redskins are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games at home in September

 

 

New Orlean Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: ATL -2 (-110)

Total : O/U 42.5 (-110/-110)

 

After looking out of sorts in the season-opening game against the Philadelphia Eagles, the offense of the Atlanta Falcons rebounded in a big way in a 31-24 win over the Carolina Panthers at home in Week 2. Matt Ryan and the rest of the Falcons will aim to post back-to-back victories over NFC South opponents with Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints in town this week. Sportsbooks opened the Falcons as 3-point home favorites with a total of 53.

Ryan’s 272-yard effort on 23 of 28 completions along with a touchdown and an interception against the Panthers was solid, and he added two more scores on the ground. Despite missing starting running back Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman stepped in and compiled 107 yards on 16 carries. With Freeman sidelined two to three weeks, Coleman will draw the start again on Sunday.

Atlanta’s straight-up victory over the Panthers wasn’t much of a surprise for bettors who’ve been tailing them when they face off with the NFC South. In the Falcons’ last 12 meetings with divisional opponents, they’re a fantastic 10-2 SU. The Saints could be in trouble in this spot, as New Orleans is 1-3 SU in its last four trips to Atlanta and 1-5 SU in its past six road games vs divisional foes.

 

Key Trends

New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

New Orleans is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games

New Orleans is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games on the road

New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Atlanta is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 9 games

Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Falcons’ last nine games (avg. combined score: 35.78)

The Saints are 1-5 SU in their last six games vs their division on the road

The Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after consecutive ATS losses

 

 

New England @ Detroit Lions

8:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: NE -7 (-110)

Total : O/U 54.5 (-110/-110)

 

Any casual bettor can tell you that it doesn’t take a lot of digging to find some trends to support the Patriots in almost any game. This is especially evident for their Week 3 Sunday Night Football matchup vs the Lions as a quick look unearths a Tyrannosaurus rex-sized hole worth of data that strongly points in their direction to cover the spread. New England opened the week as a 6.5-point favorite (which has moved to -7 at some books) and the game has one of the highest totals of the week at 51.5.

Yes, this looks like an extremely obvious bet to make but I simply can’t ignore the Patriots’ history in this spot, combined with the fact that the Lions have looked like a disaster early in the season. In the Bill Belichick era, which dates back to 2000, New England is 49-24-1 ATS (67.1%) following a loss. This includes a more recent stretch that’s seen them go 14-2-1 ATS in their last 17 following a loss. That’s impressive, but they’ve been a gold mine for bettors following up a double-digit loss, posting a 21-6 ATS record! I deem that record exclamation point-worthy.

Following their 31-20 loss to the Jaguars in Week 2, there’s clearly some fresh red flags for New England, but keep in mind the Patriots are going from playing possibly the best defense in the league to arguably the worst. Detroit is tied with the Bills in allowing an NFL-worst 39 points per game and the offense isn’t offering much relief as it’s tied for the league lead with six turnovers. The Lions are getting slaughtered on the ground as they’ve allowed a league-high 359 rushing yards through two weeks so I fully expect the Patriots to chip away on the ground while Tom Brady picks them apart through the air.

Specific to the 7-point spread, 10 of New England’s 13 regular-season wins last season were by seven or more points and the Pats are currently on a run that’s seen them go 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 7 or more.

 

Key Trends

New England is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games

New England is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games

New England is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games on the road

New England is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games on the road

Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home

Detroit is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing New England

Since 2000, the Patriots are 21-6 ATS following a double-digit loss

Lions’ games have had an average combined score of 61 points this season

The Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 night games

 

 

 

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