NFL Week 4 Writeup
posted Sep 30 2018, 12:34PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 4

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

 

 

 

Buffalo Bills @ Green Bay Packers

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: GB -9 (-101)

Total : O/U 43.5 (-110/-110)

 

Entering a Week 3 matchup with the Minnesota Vikings as 16.5-point underdogs, the Buffalo Bills shocked the football world by flat-out dominating the Vikes from start to finish in an extremely surprising 27-6 win. The Josh Allen-led Bills continue their NFC North tour against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers at historic Lambeau Field in Week 4 on Sunday. Sportsbooks opened the Bills as 10-point road dogs with a total of 45.5.

As evidenced by the Bills’ +10 spread, oddsmakers are not expecting this one to be close, but they thought the same thing last week. While we’re at it, let’s have a moment of silence for everyone who lost their survivor pools after picking the Vikings last week. Buffalo’s defense held the Vikings to only 292 yards and forced Minnesota to commit three turnovers, while the Vikes managed only 14 rushing yards on six carries.

With rookie signal-caller Josh Allen at the helm, the Bills looked like a completely different team even without starting running back LeSean McCoy, who’s dealing with a rib injury. How significant was the Bills’ win over Minny? Buffalo is now 1-17 SU in its past 18 games as a double-digit underdog. The bad news for Buffalo moneyline backers is the Bills are 0-5 SU in their past five road games after winning the most recent contest away from home.

 

Key Trends

The Packers are 27-7-1 SU in their last 35 games at home vs teams with losing records.

The Bills are 1-17 SU in their last 18 games as a double-digit underdog.

The total has gone OVER in eight of the Packers’ last nine games (avg. combined score: 47.0).

Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Buffalo is 8-12-3 ATS in its last 23 games on the road

Buffalo is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games on the road

Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

Green Bay is 1-4-1 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 9 games

Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

 

 

 

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Chargers

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: LAC -10 (-105)

Total : O/U 46 (-110/-110)

 

The already disappointing start to the 49ers season got worse on Sunday when starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo went down with an injury late in their game against the Chiefs. It was confirmed on Monday that he had torn his ACL and will be out for the remainder of the season. CJ Beathard will take his place behind center and try to keep his team from falling apart. They face an uphill battle as a 10.5-point underdog against the Chargers in Los Angeles on Sunday. The total is set at 47.5.

Before San Francisco decided to start Jimmy G in Week 13 last season after trading for him at the deadline, CJ Beathard was the team’s starting QB and it wasn’t pretty. In seven games, the Iowa alum had a QB rating of 69.2, with four touchdowns and six interceptions. He started in five of those seven games, and the 49ers were 1-4 SU and ATS in that stretch.

Philip Rivers, on the other hand, is on pace for a career year with the Chargers. Through three games he has a QB rating of 115.7, throwing eight touchdowns and only one interception. He also has an extremely impressive completion percentage of 69.4. Don’t let the Chargers’ 1-2 SU record fool you. Their two losses have come against arguably the top two teams in the league in the Chiefs and Rams.

On top of the injury issues that the 49ers offense is suffering from, they’re historically not able to win as a double-digit underdog, going 0-10 SU and 4-6 ATS the last 10 times their opponent was favored by double-digit points. I feel very comfortable taking LA to beat the 10.5-point spread at home.

 

Key Trends

The 49ers are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games as a double-digit underdog

The 49ers are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on the road in September

The Chargers are 9-0 SU in their last 9 games at home after consecutive road games

San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

San Francisco is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games

LA Chargers is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games

LA Chargers is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Chargers's last 14 games

LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

 

 

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

8:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: PIT -3 (-105)

Total : O/U 51 (-110/-110)

 

After turning FitzMagic into FitzTragic on Monday night, the Pittsburgh Steelers are under the bright lights once again as they host the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4’s Sunday Night Football game. The win over Tampa pushed their winning streak in night games to an amazing 13 straight. The victory may have been a turning point in a season that’s been highlighted by lots of drama, but this could be the best Ravens team in years as they look poised to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2014. The Steelers opened as a 3-point favorite with the point total coming in at 51.

Interesting note, right off the bat: This is the highest total for this matchup in OddsShark’s database which goes all the way back to 1984. That means these teams have played 73 times and haven’t seen a total this high. (Well, I suppose you already read that in the headline, so maybe not as interesting the second time around.)

With Pittsburgh seeing combined scores of 79 in Week 2 vs the Chiefs and 57 vs Tampa in Week 3, many bettors will be giving the OVER a hard look, but I think the Ravens defense will be able to get enough stops to keep the game from getting too out of hand. They currently rank first in the league, holding opponents to just 4.3 yards per play, which is on par with their 2017 mark of 5.0, which had them tied for sixth-best.

Looking specifically at this matchup, only three of the last 15 games have topped the 51-point mark, with last December’s 39-38 Steelers win being an extreme outlier. Of those 15 games, the average combined score was 43.86.

Another consideration is that Joe Flacco had been very un-elite vs the Steelers in recent seasons with at least one interception in six straight games and an average QB rating of 42.6 in those contests. As a result, Baltimore’s best course of action might be to milk the clock and attempt to move the ball on the ground.

 

Key Trends

The Steelers are 13-0 SU in their last 13 games at night, with an average win margin of 11.77

The Ravens are 9-24 SU in their last 33 games on the road vs the Steelers

The Steelers are 10-0-1 SU in their last 11 games vs divisional opponents (avg. winning margin: 6.27)

Baltimore is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

The total has gone OVER in 10 of Baltimore's last 15 games

Baltimore is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games on the road

Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Pittsburgh is 11-3-1 SU in its last 15 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

 

 

 

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Heavy interest on daring parlay bets with (straight up, spread and o/u) my beer money. Follow My picks daily to see if I achieve gambling alcoholism....





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