NFL Week 5 Writeup
posted Oct 07 2018, 10:09AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 5

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers


Vegas Lines:

Line: PIT -3 (-120)

Total : O/U 57.5 (-110/-110)


If you had told me coming into a Week 5 matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers that their combined records would be 2-5-1 SU and 2-6 ATS through eight games, I would’ve asked, “who got injured?” Well, the only thing hurt right now is bettors’ bankrolls when backing these two would-be contenders as each team is falling short of expectations when it comes to betting records and postseason aspirations.

The Steelers opened as 3-point favorites at Heinz Field although home-field advantage may seem hollow considering they’ve dropped three straight games in Pittsburgh, including last year’s playoffs.

If there was ever a point where the Steelers felt they needed to get Le’Veon Bell back in the lineup, it was after their game vs the Ravens in Week 4. The Steelers were tied at 14 going into the half but for the remaining 30 minutes of play, they could not put a drive together or convert a third down. Pittsburgh is a shell of itself with its rushing attack as it averages 72 yards per game (ranked 29th) on the ground with James Conner, who is not fitting the bill so far in his young career. To his credit, it would help if the Steelers didn’t have to abandon the run game so early in games as they spotted the Chiefs and Ravens a combined 35 points at home before getting on the scoreboard.

Heinz Field is a historic site of football tradition and a winning culture but for Steelers backers, they know that isn’t the case lately. Pittsburgh has lost three straight games at home (including last year’s playoffs) for the first time since 2012 and the Steelers don’t have the excuse this time of Ben Roethlisberger being hurt. Going back to last season, the Steelers are a woeful 0-6 ATS in their last six games as home favorites. Now, they welcome a Falcons squad that is crushing opposing secondaries and Pittsburgh allows an ugly 305 yards passing per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL.

Luckily for the Steelers, their passing game looks on point through four games and they can exploit a banged-up Falcons secondary that is allowing 284 yards per game (ranked 25th). Where Pitt can trip itself up, though, is on third down as it ranks 28th in the league in third-down conversion rate. That stat is the reason why the Steelers miss Bell the most because he’s a running back who can chew up yards and put them in better positions to convert. Although I tend to disregard historical trends when it comes to teams in different conferences, for what it’s worth, the Steelers have owned this matchup as they’re 11-1-1 SU in their last 13 games vs the Falcons and 6-0-1 when these teams clash at Heinz Field.


Key Trends

The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games as favorites

The Falcons are allowing 30.5 points per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL

The total has gone OVER in seven of the Steelers’ last nine games at home

Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 11 games

Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

Pittsburgh is 11-4-1 SU in its last 16 games

Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games




Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks


Vegas Lines:

Line: LAR -7.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 50 (-110/-110)


One of the two remaining teams that still holds a perfect record resides in Los Angeles. Despite the Chiefs also being undefeated, the Rams have been much more dominant and have staked a claim in everyone’s mind as the top team in the NFL. They’ve won all four games by an average of 18.25 points, and it’s hard to find a hole in their team. 

The Rams’ opponent this week is the Seattle Seahawks. Just four years removed from being yards away from back-to-back Super Bowl titles, the squad led by Pete Carroll is a shell of its former self. They missed the playoffs last season for the first time since 2011 and they haven’t looked much better this year, stumbling to a 2-2 SU record through the first four weeks. They currently sit as the 7-point underdog to the Rams ahead of their showdown in Seattle on Sunday. The total is set at 51.

Divisional games are always a little more unpredictable than others. These teams see each other at least twice a year, so each coach knows exactly what to expect from the other side. While the Rams may seem like a tempting pick on the 7-point spread considering how dominant they’ve been this season, their history with the Seahawks makes me cautious. Therefore, I’m staying away from taking either team against the spread.

The better play, in my opinion, is to take the UNDER. In the last five meetings between these teams, the total has gone UNDER in four of them, with the average combined score across all five games being 30.8 points.

The Rams offense is clearly superior in all facets compared to what the Seahawks put on the field, but both teams are very competent on the defensive side of the ball. The Rams and the Seahawks rank among the top 10 in the league in yards allowed per game and points allowed per game. With the total being set at a pretty high mark of 51, hitting the OVER may prove to be a tough challenge.


Key Trends

The Rams are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on the road vs the Seahawks

The total has gone UNDER in four of the Rams’ last five games vs the Seahawks (avg. combined score: 30.8)

The Seahawks are 44-10 SU in their last 54 games at home (avg. win margin of 14.75)

LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 10 games

LA Rams is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road

LA Rams is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road

Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games

Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Seattle is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home



Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans


Vegas Lines:

Line: HOU-3 (-105)

Total : O/U 45.5 (-110/-110)


An all-Texas showdown will be played under the bright lights in Week 5’s Sunday Night Football game with the Cowboys and Texans looking for some momentum after sluggish starts. Both are coming off dramatic wins in Week 4 but that’s about the only on-field commonality that they have this season as Houston is allowing 7.8 more points per game than Dallas, but the Texans are outscoring the Cowboys by 7.2 points per game. The Texans opened the week as a 3.5-point favorite with the total coming in at 45.

Deshaun Watson has been a passing machine in Weeks 2 through 4, averaging 356.6 passing yards per game. During that same span, Dak Prescott has averaged 194.3 passing yards. The lack of a passing attack for Dallas has the team ranking 27th overall in time of possession, while Houston ranks 16th. The play of Dallas’ offense has been especially troubling on the road as they’ve scored a combined 21 points in their two road games compared to 46 in two home games. Based on these facts and with Watson becoming unleashed after a rough opening week in New England, no, I don’t think the Cowboys can hang with the Texans offense, but…


Key Trends

The Texans are 4-22-1 ATS in their last 27 games at night

The total has gone UNDER in the Cowboys’ last six games on the road (avg. combined score: 29.67)

Deshaun Watson is averaging 356.6 passing yards over his last three games

Dallas is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Dallas is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games

Dallas is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Houston is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games

Houston is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games

Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home














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Risky Picks
Heavy interest on daring parlay bets with (straight up, spread and o/u) my beer money. Follow My picks daily to see if I achieve gambling alcoholism....

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