NFL Week 7 Writeup
posted Oct 21 2018, 12:18PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 7

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears


Vegas Lines:

Line: NE -1.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 49.5 (-120)


In what’s expected to be a matchup of an elite offense vs an elite defense, the New England Patriots head to the Windy City to face the Chicago Bears for Week 7. The Patriots are coming off an extraordinary last-minute victory over the Chiefs in Week 6 while the Bears got overheated and blew it in overtime vs the Dolphins. The Pats opened as 3-point favorites but have dropped both of their road games this season while the Bears are undefeated at home. Oddsmakers are also expecting a lot of offense as the total opened at 49.5.

After New England dropped 43 points on the Chiefs, many pundits who were quick to write off the Patriots after a 2-2 SU start may be eating their words going into Week 7. The Pats offense has resembled the unit from their last three Super Bowl runs with Julian Edelman back in the fold as Tom Brady has topped 300 yards passing in back-to-back weeks to go with four touchdowns and two interceptions. The reason why the yardage is significant is that from Week 1 to Week 4, Brady’s highest mark was 277 passing yards back in Week 1. After six weeks of play, New England is also the least penalized team in the NFL with only 26 flags totaling 206 yards – the Pats don’t beat themselves.

And while it’s easy to laud the Patriots offense with the additions of Edelman and Josh Gordon, their two road games this season give me pause. The Jaguars (along with just about any team over the last 15 years that has defeated the Patriots) showed the NFL in Week 2 the blueprint for beating Tom Brady and the Pats and that’s a dominant defensive line that hits him often in the pocket. The Jags and Lions both executed that plan to a T and Brady couldn’t initiate the offense.

However, I think those issues on the offensive side of the ball are all but rectified and the Pats can burn the Bears through the air. Chicago ranks 16th in passing yards allowed (260) and a steady diet of Gronk and Edelman should put the Patriots in a great position to improve their 14-6 SU and 12-8 ATS record in their last 20 road games.

Defensively, the Patriots are still a bit of a train wreck as they rank in the bottom half of the NFL in both passing yards and rushing yards allowed per game while giving up 24.7 points per game. Because of those defensive liabilities, in combination with Chicago’s tremendous pass rush, I’m uneasy about taking the Pats as a spread pick in this one.


Key Trends

The Patriots are 14-6 SU and 12-8 ATS in their last 20 road games

The Bears are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs

The UNDER has hit in 5 of the Patriots’ last 6 games on the road

New England is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games

New England is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games

New England is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games on the road

New England is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games on the road

Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Chicago is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games

Chicago is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home

Chicago is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games at home




Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins


Vegas Lines:

Line: DAL -1 (-105)

Total : O/U 41 (-110/-110)


Through their first five games, the Cowboys averaged just 16.6 points per contest. Against what most would consider an elite NFL defense, they flipped the script and dropped 41 points on the Jaguars. Granted, the Cowboys found creative ways to get Dak Prescott involved to exploit Jacksonville’s weaknesses against the rush, but for as bad as Dallas has looked, it’s now 3-3 straight up and against the spread this season.

Washington’s Alex Smith game-managed, Adrian Peterson posted 5.7 yards per rush and the Redskins didn’t commit one turnover in a small upset win over the Panthers to improve to 3-2 SU and ATS. The Redskins opened as 2.5-point home favorites, but some Cowboys money poured in to drop that to WAS -1.5 by Monday morning with the Cowboys moneyline at +114 and the point total at 41.5.


Key Trends

The Cowboys are 4-0 SU in their last four games vs the Redskins (avg. winning margin: 11.75)

The Redskins are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games vs divisional opponents

The Redskins are 1-7 SU in their last eight games after a win

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 10 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road

Dallas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington

Dallas is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Washington

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games

Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home



Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs


Vegas Lines:

Line: KC -6 (-110)

Total : O/U 56.5 (-120/-110)


You know what’s fun? Watching the Kansas City Chiefs play football. You know what’s also fun? Watching the Cincinnati Bengals play football. I also find laying on the couch uninterrupted for several hours on Sunday nights to be fun, so it looks like we’ve got a threesome of fun lined up on Sunday night when the Bengals go to Kansas City hoping to hand the Chiefs their first ATS loss of the season. KC opened as a 6-point favorite and the game features the highest total of the week at 58.5 points.

If you’re thinking the 6-point spread favors Kansas City, you might be on to something. The Chiefs’ five wins this season have come by an average of 9.2 points and they’ve won their two home games by an average of 13.5 points. Their offense is hard to keep up with for numerous reasons, but perhaps flying under the radar is that they’ve only committed five turnovers, which ties them for the second-fewest in the league.

As for the Bengals, there are some red flags that they might be crashing back to earth after a hot start. Over their last three games, they rank 30th in net yards per play. They’re 2-1 SU during this stretch, but the wins weren’t exactly convincing (a shootout that could have gone either way vs the banged-up Falcons, and benefiting from two defensive touchdowns in the fourth quarter vs Miami).

To Cincinnati’s credit, however, it has the top red-zone offense in the league, ranking first in red-zone TD scoring efficiency at 75 percent. Kansas City isn’t far off at 69.23 percent. While the offenses are clicking in the red zone, the defenses are crumbling, as they both rank in the bottom 10 in the league in opponents’ TD scoring percentage in the red zone, which leads us to…


Key Trends

Kansas City games have had an average combined score of 64.5 points per game this season

Cincinnati leads the NFL in red-zone TD scoring percentage

The Chiefs are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games at night

Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games

Cincinnati is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games

Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road

Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road

Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games

Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home













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Risky Picks
Heavy interest on daring parlay bets with (straight up, spread and o/u) my beer money. Follow My picks daily to see if I achieve gambling alcoholism....

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