NFL Week 8 Writeup
posted Oct 28 2018, 12:46PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 8

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

 

 

 

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: PIT -8.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 48 (-120)

 

Seven weeks into the season, the Cleveland Browns have played four overtime games. They’re 1-2-1 straight up in those contests. However, the Browns received 3.5 points from the Buccaneers in Week 7 and while Chandler Catanzaro’s 59-yard field goal in overtime may have dropped Cleveland to 2-4-1 overall, its ATS record improved to 5-2.

Before a Week 7 bye, Pittsburgh shocked Cincinnati with a last-minute score to win, cover and improve to 3-2-1 straight up and 3-3 against the spread with three covers in its last four games. As the Steelers look to make it four covers in five games, Cleveland is in search of its first straight-up road win since October 2015. The Steelers opened as 7-point home favorites before the spread rose Monday to -7.5 with the Browns moneyline +260 and the point total at 50.5.

 

Key Trends

The Browns are 3-0 ATS in their last three games vs the Steelers.

The Steelers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games after a bye.

The Browns are 0-24 SU in their last 24 games on the road (avg. losing margin: 11.54).

Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games

Cleveland is 2-21-1 SU in its last 24 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games

Cleveland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Pittsburgh is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games

Pittsburgh is 13-4-1 SU in its last 18 games

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games

Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home

 

 

 

New York Jets @ Chicago Bears

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: CHI -8.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 42 (-120/-110)

 

The New York Jets are learning that life with a rookie quarterback is a real roller-coaster, following an embarrassing home loss in Week 7 to Minnesota. It doesn’t get any easier in Week 8, as they travel to Chicago to face the resurgent Bears as 7-point underdogs. Despite the Jets’ recent string of hitting the OVER, the total was set at 46 points.

The Jets have shown they can put up points, as they currently sit eighth in the NFL in points scored. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has been able to keep the offense moving, is willing to take the deep shot, and they are committed to running the ball with Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell.

While Chicago’s defense is one of the better units in the league, it has shown some weakness the past two games, allowing 31 points to Brock Osweiler and the Miami Dolphins, then 38 to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. The Bears are still in the top five for fewest yards allowed and top 10 for fewest points, but they have shown they can be beat.

The Jets defense, on the other hand, has struggled mightily of late. It gave up 316 yards in last week’s 37-17 loss, but that actually broke a streak of three straight games allowing at least 428 yards. The secondary has been especially weak, which is a bad matchup for a white-hot Chicago offense that has averaged 35.7 points in its past three games, with QB Mitchell Trubisky topping 300 yards each game and the ground game chugging for at least 134 yards in each contest too.

Key Trends

The Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against the Jets.

The OVER has hit in four of New York’s last five games.

Chicago is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 home games.

NY Jets is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

NY Jets is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games

NY Jets is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road

Chicago is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games

Chicago is 11-4-1 ATS in its last 16 games at home

Chicago is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games at home

 

 

Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams

8:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: LAR -7.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 57.5 (-120)

 

The Green Bay Packers are coming off a much-needed break from the bye after a slow 3-2-1 SU start to the season and that rest will be needed for the challenge of facing the Los Angeles Rams in Week 8. The Rams are the only undefeated team left in the NFL and are beating teams by an average of 12.4 points per game this season. The Rams opened as 9-point favorites, the most points the Packers have ever been given with Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback, with a total at 57.

This season has been a slog for the Packers since the Week 1 hit to Aaron Rodgers that made his knee buckle and would keep most people laid up on the couch for a three-month recovery. Rodgers’ mobility has been severely hampered from that hit so the bye was a much-needed break to get treatment and try to get the offense back in sync.

In Rodgers’ career, coming off a bye has done wonders for the Packers and bettors’ bankrolls as Green Bay is 7-3 SU and 6-2-2 ATS in 10 games after the break. The Packers are averaging 26.9 points in those games and that includes last year’s defeat vs the Lions when Rodgers was out and Brett “out of the league in three years” Hundley led them to 17 points.

Green Bay’s defense may be able to slow down the Rams’ passing attack as it ranks fifth in passing yards allowed per game (212). But to keep Todd Gurley out of the end zone will be a near-impossible task as the Packers have given up an average of 116.5 rushing yards per game (ranked 22nd) and let a third-string running back, the Niners’ Raheem Mostert, average 7.3 yards per carry on them.

The Pack are 0-2 SU and ATS and have been outscored by 22 points.

 

Key Trends

The Packers are 7-3 SU and 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games after the bye.

The Rams lead the NFL in rushing yards per game (153.1).

The final score has only surpassed 57 points in 6 of the Rams’ last 23 games.

Green Bay is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games

Green Bay is 3-5-1 SU in its last 9 games

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games

Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

Green Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road

LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

LA Rams is 6-11-2 ATS in its last 19 games at home

LA Rams is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home

The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games at home

 

 

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