NFL Week 10 Writeup
posted Nov 11 2018, 10:06AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 10

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

 

 

 

New Orleans Saints @ Cincinnati Bengals

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: NO -6 (-110)

Total : O/U 53.5 (-130)

 

After losing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1, the New Orleans Saints haven’t looked back and have rattled off seven straight wins ahead of their road matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10. Sportsbooks opened the Saints as 4.5-point road favorites with a total of 54.

The Saints faced their toughest game of the season against the previously undefeated Los Angeles Rams and came away with a 45-35 victory in Week 9 in a statement game. Drew Brees continues to turn back the clock in what’s been an MVP-caliber campaign, as the 39-year-old threw for 346 yards and four touchdowns without turning the ball over in the triumph. Michael Thomas, Brees’ favorite target, torched the Rams secondary for 211 yards and a score.

New Orleans has been an excellent moneyline bet when playing in the first block of games on Sunday, as the Saints are 11-1 SU in their past 12 early afternoon contests. The Saints are also 13-3 ATS in their previous 16 road games against teams with winning records, so expecting them to cover as road faves this week is a very realistic expectation.

Without Green in the fold in Week 10, the Bengals offense looks a lot less scary. Tyler Boyd and John Ross will be leaned on to produce through the air in Green’s absence. Boyd had 138 receiving yards and a touchdown on nine receptions in Cincy’s 37-34 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before their bye week.

The Bengals love finding themselves as home underdogs, as Cincinnati is 9-1-1 ATS in its previous 11 games as a home pup. The Bengals have been far from a solid bet when coming off the bye, however, going 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four in that spot. New Orleans and Cincinnati don’t get together often, but when they do, it’s the Bengals who are producing. In the last five meetings between the squads, Cincinnati is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS.

 

Key Trends

The Saints are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs the Bengals

The Bengals are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs

The Saints are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games in the early afternoon

New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Cincinnati is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games

Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

 

 


 

 

Seattly Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams 

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: LAR -9 (-110)

Total : O/U 50.5 (-120/-110)

 

After starting the season 0-2 straight up and 0-1-1 against the spread, Seattle was 4-1 SU and ATS in its previous five games heading into Week 9. The Seahawks failed to extend the hot stretch as 1-point home favorites against the Chargers. The 25-17 loss dropped Pete Carroll’s crew to 4-4 overall and 4-3-1 against the spread.

Jared Goff rallied the Rams back from a 21-point deficit but ran out of steam late as Los Angeles suffered its first defeat of the season, 45-35 to the Saints. While they’re 8-1 overall, their inability to cover -2 on the road dropped the Rams to 4-5 ATS.

Los Angeles opened as an 8.5-point home favorite before emotional Rams backers pushed that needle to -10, which has become an early-in-the-week consensus spread of the sportsbooks. Seattle’s moneyline is +385 and the point total is 51.5. It’s quite a spread considering just last month the ’Hawks hung 31 points on the reeling Rams defense and covered 7.5 points in Seattle.

Seahawks – After rushing eight times for 40 yards against the Chargersrunning back Chris Carson missed most of the final three quarters due to a hip injury. This is important heading into Week 10 because not only had the second-year back out of Oklahoma State averaged 96 rushing yards per game over the past month, but he posted 116 yards on 19 carries against the Rams four weeks ago. It would be a huge loss if he were inactive.

This is the 22nd time since 1989 that Seattle has been a road dog of 10 or more points but the first time it’s been against an NFC West rival. The Seahawks are 0-22 straight up and 8-14 against the spread in those previous contests.

Rams – Like the Bengals earlier this season, the Rams defense continued to play with fire and like the Bengals it eventually burned them in the loss column. Before they allowed New Orleans to hang 45 points on them, the Rams defense had allowed their four toughest opponents to date – Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle and the L.A. Chargers – to average 28 points per game or nearly six points more than their season average, 22.2. When you factor in the Saints’ 45-point performance, Los Angeles has allowed 31.4 points per game in five of its nine contests this season.

 

Key Trends

The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road vs the Rams

The Rams are 5-0 SU in their last five games as a double-digit favorite

The Seahawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a double-digit underdog

Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games

Seattle is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road

LA Rams is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games

LA Rams is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

LA Rams is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

 

 


 

 

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

8:20

Vegas Lines:

Line: PHI -7.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 44 (-120)

 

With no serious contender in the NFC East through nine weeks of the NFL season, a lot is on the line with the Cowboys and Eagles set to square off on Sunday Night Football in Philadelphia. While many bettors will be fixated on the spread, which is set at -6.5 points in favor of the Eagles, they might be better served considering a totals bet. An overwhelming number of trends and stats are tilted toward the UNDER, but complicating matters is a total of 43 points, which is one of the lowest on the Week 10 board.

If history is any indication, it’s highly unlikely we’ll see either team break out offensively as recent home/away splits and the last few games in this matchup point to a low-scoring affair. The last three games between these teams and seven of the last 10 have gone UNDER while Dallas is on a streak of eight straight UNDERs on the road, with those games averaging just 31.25 combined points. Not to be outdone, eight of the Eagles’ last nine home games have gone UNDER, with those games having an average combined score of 31.89.

Those trends are fine and dandy, but do more recent stats align? Long story short, they do. Dallas is averaging just 13.5 points per game on the road this season, which is third-worst in the NFL. We could beat up on the Cowboys offense for another few thousand words (they make it easy for us), but credit must be given to each defense, with both ranking in the top five in points allowed. Both allow fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, while Dallas has limited teams to 217 passing yards per game, which is fifth-best in the NFL.

 

Key Trends

 

The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Eagles’ last nine games at home (avg. combined score: 31.89)

Dallas has lost nine straight games after playing on Monday night

Dallas is averaging just 13.5 points per game on the road this season — third-worst in the NFL

Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Dallas's last 17 games

Dallas is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

Philadelphia is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games

Philadelphia is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home

 

 

 

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