NFL Week 11 Writeup
posted Nov 18 2018, 11:35AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 11

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Dallas Cowboys @ Atlanta Falcons


Vegas Lines:

Line: ATL -3.5 (-105)

Total : O/U 49.5 (-120)


The race for the NFC wild-card spots is a tight one, and the Atlanta Falcons and the Dallas Cowboys are one loss away from essentially being eliminated from playoff contention. Both teams sit at 4-5 SU and are in desperate need of stringing some wins together.

If either team has momentum heading into this game, it would be the Cowboys, who are coming off a prime-time win over the Eagles, while the Falcons had an uninspired performance in a loss vs the Browns.

The Falcons are set as favorites once again this weekend. They opened at -3 on the spread with the total opening at 48.

The Falcons started the season 1-4, but seemed to come out firing when they were desperate and brought their record to 4-4. Now, after losing to the Browns in a game that Atlanta players admitted they were unmotivated for, the Falcons have their backs against the wall once again but that seems to be when they’re at their best.

One thing that gives me confidence laying money on them this week is that they’re strong at home against conference opponents. They’ve gone 15-2 SU and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 conference home games. This is the same matchup we saw just last year in Atlanta – the Falcons beat the Cowboys 27-7 in a game which saw Adrian Clayborn set a team record by sacking Dak Prescott six times.

The Cowboys haven’t fared well recently after a win. They’re 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in the game following their past five victories. Whether this means that oddsmakers overvalue them when they get a win, or they’re wildly inconsistent, the fact remains that you can feel comfortable taking the Falcons to cover the small spread at home.



Key Trends

The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Cowboys’ last nine games on the road (avg. combined score: 33.0)

The total has gone OVER in six of the Falcons’ last eight games (avg. combined score: 58.5)

The Falcons are 15-2 SU, 12-5 ATS in their last 17 conference home games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Dallas's last 18 games

Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 9 games on the road

Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games

Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home






Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints


Vegas Lines:

Line: NO -7.5 (-105)

Total : O/U 57 (-105)


Following Sunday night’s loss to Dallas, the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles are now 4-5 overall, losers of three consecutive home games and 3-6 against the spread this season.

New Orleans possessed the ball for nearly 40 minutes in its 51-14 blowout win at Cincinnati to improve to 8-1 overall and 7-2 against the spread. For as heralded as the Saints offense is, their defense has allowed 20 or fewer points in five contests during their active eight-game win streak.

The Saints opened as 7-point home favorites, the Eagles moneyline is +260 and the point total is 52. Since 2014, the Saints are 2-8 ATS when home favorites of 7 or more points. They have failed to cover four straight under those conditions, including two this season against the Buccaneers and Browns.

Eagles – Social media’s favorite term to describe the current state of the Eagles secondary is “decimated.” Already without Rodney McLeod, Jalen Mills and Sidney Jones, the team announced top cornerback Ronald Darby will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. While there’s a chance Jones returns from a hamstring injury this week, a decimated secondary is not ideal when about to face the highest-scoring team in the league. The Eagles rank 23rd against the pass heading into Week 11.

Much was made about the Eagles acquiring wide receiver Golden Tate at the trade deadline, but he only earned 18 snaps and four targets in his debut against the Cowboys.

Saints – New Orleans lost Dez Bryant for the season before he could play one regular-season minute. So “X” is out and Brandon Marshall is in. The Saints inked the veteran receiver to a one-year contract Monday. With Ted Ginn and Cameron Meredith also on injured reserve, Marshall is expected to line up as the team’s WR-2 from the jump.

Despite the lack of wide receiver depth this season, the trio of Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram has helped the Saints average 6.4 yards per play over the past three weeks, which trumps their season-to-date per play average. In other words, Marshall could play the role of decoy.

Opposing offenses have converted just 33 percent of their third downs over the past three games against the Saints defense. That’s the sixth-lowest conversion rate in the league.



Key Trends

The Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games

The Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games

The total has gone OVER in the Eagles’ last five games on the road (avg. combined score: 57.0)

Philadelphia is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games

Philadelphia is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road

New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 12 games

New Orleans is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home






Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears


Vegas Lines:

Line: CHI -2.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 44 (-105)


Many had the Bears penciled in as a sleeper candidate entering the season and through the halfway point of the season, they’ve met those expectations. They come into Sunday with a slim half-game lead in the NFC North and will look to distance themselves from the team breathing down their necks, the defending champion Minnesota Vikings. It just so has it they’ve had the Vikings’ number when the two play in Chicago, as they’ve won an impressive 14 of the last 17 matchups between the teams in the Windy City.

The Bears opened the week at -3 and the total is set at 46.

This is the first time in four years that the Bears have been a favorite over the Vikings. The last time occurred in Chicago on November 16, 2004. The Bears won 21-13, covering -2.5 points. This time around, the Bears are showing promise of a future Super Bowl contender with the possibility of owning the NFC North for years to come. They’ve won three straight games, all by double digits, outscoring their opponents 99-41. This will mark their eighth game as a favorite this season after getting that distinction just three times last season.

The Vikings are playing some good football too, winning four of their last five games before going on their bye in Week 10. Three of the wins were by double digits, as was their most recent victory over the Bears on December 31 of last season — a 23-10 win at home. Specific to their underdog status in this one, it’ll be their seventh time since the beginning of last season as an underdog. They went 3-3 SU and 3-2-1 ATS the six previous times.

Looking at home/away splits, the Bears have been a much better team on their home field as they lead the NFL in net yards per play at home, which has paved the way to a 4-1 ATS record at Soldier Field. They’re scoring in bunches at home, averaging 34.25 points over their last four home games. Mitch Trubisky is also posting much better numbers in Chicago, where his QB rating is 24 points higher than it is on the road.

As for the Vikings, they’re 2-1-1 SU and ATS on the road this season, but they’re allowing 6.4 additional points outside of Minnesota. Oddly enough, however, they’re scoring 9.8 more points on the road and Kirk Cousins has posted some elite numbers, throwing 10 touchdowns to just one interception with a 111.8 QB rating.


Key Trends


The Vikings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on the road vs the Bears

The total has gone OVER in five of the Bears’ last six games. Those games had an average combined score of 54.33

The Bears lead the league in net yards per play at home

Minnesota is 4-6-2 ATS in its last 12 games

Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Minnesota is 8-3-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road

Chicago is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games

Chicago is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games

Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home















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Risky Picks
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