NFL Week 12 Writeup
posted Nov 25 2018, 12:11PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 12

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

 

 

 

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: PHI -4.5 (-105)

Total : O/U 49 (-110)

 

After beating two teams with a combined W-L record of 5-15 SU, the Giants aim to win three games in a row for the first time since November 2016 when they visit the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12. The Giants and Eagles are all but eliminated from postseason contention but that doesn’t mean the bad blood won’t be on display between these NFC East rivals. The last time the Giants beat the Eagles was coincidentally when they won those three games in a row.

The Eagles opened as 6-point favorites with a total of 46.

With the offensive weaponry the Eagles possess, it’s alarming that they only average 20.5 points per game. Alshon Jeffery, Golden Tate and Nelson Agholor are a trio that would make any defensive coordinator lose sleep but it’s actually TE Zach Ertz leading the team in receiving this season with 77 catches, 804 yards and five touchdowns.

Without having the reliability in the wideouts, Philly’s run game has all but crumpled since Jay Ajayi was ruled out for the season with an ACL injury. The Eagles are only averaging 98.2 rush yards per game (ranked 25th) with seven touchdowns on the ground, which is a far cry from last season when they averaged nearly 133 yards per contest (ranked third).

This is why taking the Eagles on the spread is a tricky predicament because on paper, they’re way better than the Giants, but they have the look of a team that is lost for answers. They’re 1-4 ATS in five home games this season and 3-7 ATS in 10 games for the year, which is shocking for a reigning Super Bowl winner.

I was very high on the Giants coming into the season as I predicted they would make the playoffs and Saquon Barkley would lead the NFL in touchdowns. Boy, was I dead wrong. The Giants are again likely to miss the playoffs and Barkley has been so misused that he may be lucky to crack 10 total touchdowns by the end of the year (he has seven). But over the last two games, the G-Men’s offense has come back to life. New York scored 65 points over two games and the 38 points it scored against the Niners was a season high.

Where the Giants have surprised bettors is how close they’re keeping games on the road. They have yet to lose an away game by more than seven points and have gone 4-1 ATS in five games away from MetLife Stadium. The three SU losses were by a combined 12 points to Dallas, Carolina and Atlanta. When a road dog of 6 points or more, the Giants have covered the spread in three straight games and in two of the last three games in this matchup. Do I feel great about laying money on the Giants? Hell no, but with the way the Eagles have played lately, I can’t trust them either.

 

 

Key Trends

Philadelphia is 24th in the NFL in points scored per game (20.5)

The Giants are 4-1 ATS in five road games this season

The UNDER has hit in 4 of the Eagles’ 5 home games this season (avg. combined score: 39 points per game)

NY Giants is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games

NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

NY Giants is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games on the road

Philadelphia is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games

Philadelphia is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games

Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

 

 

 


 

 

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: MIN -3 (-115)

Total : O/U 48 (-120)

 

The Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings didn’t have a winner when the final whistle blew in their Week 2 matchup with the game ending in a 29-29 tie. They face each other for the second time on Sunday night to decide who will win the season series.

With the Bears currently holding the keys to the NFC North, the Packers and Vikings are vying for one of the wild-card spots in the NFC. Minnesota currently sits as the sixth seed, but the Packers are only one game back and could overtake the Vikings’ playoff spot if they get the win and the Seahawks and the Cowboys both lose.

The Packers are currently set as 3-point road underdogs, with the total pegged at 48.

Although their first matchup of the season ended with 58 points being scored, I’m on the UNDER 48 in this matchup. The average combined score across the Vikings’ five home games so far this season is 40, which (for those of you who don’t have a calculator) is eight points less than the current total for this game.

Furthermore, the Packers are averaging 6.2 fewer points per game on the road than they are at home, while the opposite can be said for the Vikings, who are strangely scoring an average of 7.8 fewer points at U.S. Bank Stadium than they are in their away games.

Both teams’ defenses rank in the top half of the league in fewest yards allowed per game and fewest points allowed per game. They also both rank near the top in sacks with the Packers having the third-most in the league with 34, while the Vikings are tied for fifth with 32.

Despite both teams having better defensive units than you may have thought, it’s the Vikings defense that has quietly been one of the best across the league to date. They lead the league in getting off the field on third down, allowing opposing offenses to convert on third down only 28 percent of the time. They’re also the fourth-best team against the run, keeping opposing teams to an average of 94.8 yards on the ground per game. Finally, they’re the very best team in the league in preventing touchdowns when the other team gets to the red zone, only permitting them to score a TD 40 percent of the time.

It’s clear that all signs point to the UNDER in this game. The Vikings and Packers have underrated defenses and the home/away trends show that both teams should score fewer points than if this game was played in Green Bay.

As a cherry on top, the total has gone UNDER in seven of the last 10 SNF games

 

 

Key Trends

The Packers are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road (avg. losing margin: 10.29)

The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents

The Vikings rank No. 1 in opponents’ red-zone TD percentage (40%)

Green Bay is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games

Green Bay is 4-8-1 SU in its last 13 games

The total has gone OVER in 11 of Green Bay's last 16 games

Green Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road

Minnesota is 4-7-2 ATS in its last 13 games

Minnesota is 17-6-1 SU in its last 24 games

Minnesota is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home

Minnesota is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

 

 

 


 

 

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

8:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: HOU -4 (-110)

Total : O/U 41.5 (-105)

 

Spoiled doesn’t even begin to describe what we were treated to last Monday but alas, it’s back down to earth for the Week 12 finale when the somehow 7-3 Houston Texans host the 5-5 Tennessee Titans as favorites in an AFC South matchup the Indianapolis Colts will be watching very closely.

Most books opened this line at 6 or 6.5 with Marcus Mariota’s status up in the air, but with the oft-injured quarterback looking more and more likely to play on Monday, the line has settled around four.

If it weren’t for their inconsistency and horrific home/road splits, the Titans could be big players in the AFC this season. 5-20 SU in their last 25 divisional road games and averaging just over 15 points per game over their last four away from home, though, the Titans haven’t been doing themselves any favors.

That said, the road team has covered in five of the last six Monday night games and this is an absolute must-win for Tennessee.

Parlay that with how bad the Texans have been in prime time (5-23-1 ATS in their last 29 games at night) and the Titans have a real shot not only to cover but to win this game outright as underdogs.

 

 

Key Trends

 

The Texans are 5-23-1 ATS in their last 29 prime time games

The Titans are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last 7 games AFC South opponents

Deshaun Watson has been sacked 33 times this season

Tennessee is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games

Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games

Tennessee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road

Houston is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games

Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games

Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

 

 

 

 

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