NFL Week 13 Writeup
posted Dec 02 2018, 12:40PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 13

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

 

 

 

Los Angeles Rams @ Detriot Lions

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: LAR -10 (-105)

Total : O/U 54 (-110)

 

Matthew Stafford’s two interceptions late in the fourth quarter proved to be the difference in a Chase Daniel-led Bears win Thanksgiving afternoon. The 23-16 loss dropped the Lions to 4-7 overall and 6-5 against the spread. Detroit has failed to cover in four of its past five games.

When we last saw the Rams, they scored 54 points, allowed 51 and pushed the -3-point home spread. Los Angeles may lead the NFC West at 10-1, but the Rams are a cringe-worthy 4-6-1 against the spread this season as their defensive liabilities allow the opposition to keep things tight.

The Rams opened as 7-point road favorites, but the line jumped to -9.5 before the end of Sunday Night Football and is now -10. Detroit’s moneyline is +336 and the total is 54.5.

It’s the first time the Lions have been home dogs of 9.5 or more points since 2009, which happens to be Stafford’s rookie season. Detroit is 1-9 straight up and 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games when a home dog of 9.5 or more points. This is the first time the Rams have been favored on the road by 9.5 points or more since 2003. Jared Goff was nine.

Lions – What did we learn? It’s hard to win without Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Kerryon Johnson. To date, Johnson accounts for 57 percent of the Lions’ rush offense. Tate, who has been with the Eagles the past four games, still accounts for 18 percent of the Lions’ pass offense. Jones was placed on season-ending injured reserve late Monday and accounts for 17.8 percent. That’s a lot of missing offense needed to keep pace with the uptempo Rams.

Since Tate was traded, Stafford’s averaged 232 pass yards per game while throwing three touchdowns and four interceptions. He had thrown just two interceptions in his previous six games combined before the trade.

While their rush defense has improved since “Snacks” Harrison came over from the Giants, Detroit’s pass defense has allowed 302 pass yards per game and opposing offenses have converted nearly 78 percent of their red-zone trips against the Lions in the past three weeks.

Rams – Los Angeles is 7-1 over its past eight games, but the average margin of victory in those seven wins is just 7.3 points and that’s with a 39-10 blowout win over the 49ers. In other words, the Rams are winning, but it’s not always pretty like, say, the Saints.

Los Angeles is 2-3 against the spread on the road this season with the average spread Los Angeles -6.3.

 

 

Key Trends

The total has gone UNDER in four of the Lions’ last five games (avg. combined score: 41.8)

The Lions are 6-1 SU in their last seven games when hosting a West Coast team

The Rams are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a bye

LA Rams is 1-5-2 ATS in its last 8 games

LA Rams is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Rams's last 9 games

LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home

 

 

 

 


 

 

Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: NE -5 (-115)

Total : O/U 49 (-120)

 

The Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots didn’t get the results they were looking for in last year’s playoffs, but the NFC runner-up Vikings and Super Bowl runner-up Patriots will meet for the first time in over four years at Gillette Stadium in Week 13. Sportsbooks opened the Pats as 6-point home favorites with a total of 48.5.

Thanks to a 27-13 triumph over the New York Jets last Sunday, the Patriots are now assured a record above .500 or better for the 18th straight season. The record is 21 in a row by the Dallas Cowboys from 1965 to 1985. New England has been flat-out dominant at home, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in five home games this season. In the last meeting between the squads in Minneapolis on September 14, 2014, the Patriots cruised to an easy 30-7 victory.

Dating back to last season, the Patriots are 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS in their past 12 home games, with an average winning margin of 14.8 points. When it comes to the total in this regard, the OVER is 13-5 in New England’s past 18 at Gillette Stadium in December.

 

 

Key Trends

New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games

New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Minnesota is 18-6-1 SU in its last 25 games

Minnesota is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Minnesota is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road

New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games

New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

 

 

 


 

 

Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

8:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: PIT -3 (-110)

Total : O/U 52.5 (-105)

 

Two of the AFC’s best teams, both of them still in the hunt for a first-round playoff bye, will hook up on Sunday night in the Steel City when the Chargers head to Pittsburgh to try to hand the Steelers a second straight loss. The Steelers return home after consecutive road games and Big Ben and the boys have been lighting it up at Heinz Field, averaging 35.4 points per game, which is 12.2 points more than they average on the road.

Pittsburgh opened the week at -3.5 with the total set at 51.5.

Pittsburgh is on an incredible roll in night games, going 14-1 SU in its last 15 games under the lights. In those 14 wins, they have an average win margin of 13.14 points. Specific to night games at home, they’ve won six of their last seven and have laid the smack down in a big way, posting an average win margin of 20.33 points in those six wins. Six of those seven games also went OVER. Playing after the sun goes down hasn’t been a good spot for the Chargers as they’ve dropped five of their last six night games.

Speaking of specific times that the Steelers dominate in, they’ve been eviscerating teams once the calendar flips to December, picking up 18 wins in their last 20 games in December. As for the Chargers in the last month of the year, they’ve gone UNDER in eight straight December games.

 

 

Key Trends

 

The total has gone UNDER in five of the Vikings’ last six games vs the Patriots (avg. combined score: 39.5)

The Patriots are 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games at home (avg. winning margin: 14.75)

The total has gone OVER in five of the Vikings’ last six games on the road (avg. combined score: 52.5)

Austin Ekeler’s yards per rush and reception are both higher than Melvin Gordon’s

Pittsburgh is 14-1 SU in its last 15 night games

Steelers home games have an average combined score of 60.2 this season

LA Chargers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

LA Chargers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games

LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games

Pittsburgh is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home

 

 

 

 

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