NFL Week 14 Writeup
posted Dec 09 2018, 12:48PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 14

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

 

 

 

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: KC -6.5 (-105)

Total : O/U 49 (-110)

 

The 7-5 Baltimore Ravens put their three-game winning streak on the line and look to hand the 10-2 Kansas City Chiefs their first home loss of the season when the two meet Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. Baltimore has been on a win-one, lose-one streak through its six road games this year, while Kansas City is a perfect 5-0 at home and is a 7-point favorite this week with the total opening at 53 points.

Kansas City sits atop the AFC standings with an impressive 10-2 record, including a perfect 5-0 mark at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs have been away from home for the past two weeks and their last home game saw them beat Arizona 26-13. They will have a different look for their home fans this time around as running back Kareem Hunt was waived from the team after a video was released of him being involved in a domestic violence incident. Former starting back Spencer Ware has found himself leading the carries once again and he rushed for 47 yards on 14 carries in his first game as the feature back last week vs Oakland – the second-fewest rushing yards by a Chiefs lead back in a game this season.

However, the offense is led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is second in the NFL in passing yards at 3,923 with a league-leading 41 touchdowns (nine more than second-place Andrew Luck) and has the best total quarterback rating of 84.3. Mahomes averages 12.3 yards per pass completion, which is second-best in the league, but Baltimore allows the sixth-fewest yards per completion on the road at 9.8. Overall, Kansas City averages the fourth-most home points in the league at 33.8, while allowing the fourth-fewest home points at 17.6, leading the NFL with a +16.2 point differential at Arrowhead Stadium.

 

 

Key Trends

The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Chiefs’ last 10 games at home (avg. combined score: 45.2)

The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Ravens’ last 10 games (avg. combined score: 40.4)

Kansas City has the best home average scoring margin in the NFL (16.2)

Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 10 games

Baltimore is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road

Kansas City is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games

Kansas City is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Kansas City is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games at home

 

 

 

 


 

 

Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: LAR -3 (-115)

Total : O/U 51 (-110)

 

The Rams have just one loss on the season, but the Bears have been a monster at Soldier Field, posting a 5-1 SU and ATS record. In what easily looks like the best game of the week, LA opened as a 3-point favorite with the total sitting at 52.5 points.

All signs point to Mitchell Trubisky returning to the lineup after missing two games due to a shoulder injury. Chase Daniel did a fine job filling in, but Trubisky adds a different dimension to the Bears offense that most teams simply don’t possess. In his 10 starts, Trubisky is averaging 36.3 rushing yards per game (7.1 yards per rush). By comparison, Daniel rushed for just eight total yards in his two starts.

As a result of having an extra running threat in the backfield, we should see the Bears offense open up, especially vs a Rams defense that’s struggled against the run recently — yielding an average of 157 rushing yards per game over their last three.

With Trubisky under center, the Bears averaged 122.9 rushing yards per game, but they accumulated just 156 total yards on the ground in the two games without him.

You can debate it if you want, but according to their 11-1 SU record, which is the only thing that matters at the end of the day, the Rams are the best team in the NFL. Betting-wise, however, it’s been a different story as they’re just 2-5-1 ATS over their last eight games despite being 7-1 SU during that stretch. On the season, their ATS record sits at 5-5-2.

The reason for their mediocre betting record is clear — they’ve been a favorite in all 12 of their games by an average of 7.2 points and covering spreads above 7 isn’t easy. But at 3 points on Sunday night, they aren’t facing a big spread, so bettors who are leaning in their direction shouldn’t back off based on their unprofitable slide at the betting window.

The Bears have been the much more consistent team against the spread, which tends to be the case for teams in a breakout season. Their 8-4 ATS record is tied for fourth-best in the league and that record is highlighted by going 5-1 ATS at home.

 

Key Trends

Chicago is first in the NFL in net yards per play at home

The Rams are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games

Chicago ranks first in the NFL in first-half point differential. The Bears have covered the first-half spread in five straight games

LA Rams is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

LA Rams is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games

LA Rams is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games on the road

Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games

Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

 

 

 


 

 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

8:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: DAL -3.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 45.5 (-105)

 

The Cowboys enter the matchup on a four-game win streak, dating back to their Week 10 game against the Eagles when they left Lincoln Financial Field with a 27-20 victory. They should enter this matchup with all the confidence in the world, as their latest win came against the Saints, who many believed was the best team in the league.

The Eagles haven’t lived up to anyone’s expectations this year after winning the Super Bowl last season. But despite only sporting a .500 record with four games to play, they’re still in position to grab a playoff spot and win the division. Beating the Cowboys on Sunday would be a big step in that direction.

The Cowboys opened as 4-point favorites, with the total sitting at 43.

The offenses for these two teams are near polar opposites. Philadelphia ranks in the bottom 10 in rushing yards per game but ranks in the top 10 in passing yards per game since Carson Wentz returned to the lineup in Week 3.

The opposite can be said for the Cowboys, who are torching teams on the ground, ranking in the top 10 in rushing yards per game and rushing yards per attempt, but their passing game is subpar, ranking 26th in yards per game.

Carson Wentz has been the superior quarterback this season. He has a QB rating of 100.6 compared to Dak Prescott’s 95.4. A portion of Prescott’s issues could be attributed to the pressure that he has had to deal with. He’s the most sacked QB in the league, being put to the turf a total of 45 times.

Undrafted free agent Josh Adams has been a nice surprise for the Eagles so far this season, so they may rely on him more in this game to try to get their rushing attack back to where it should be. He’s averaging 4.9 yards per attempt, but he has yet to surpass the 100-yard mark in any game to date.

Ezekiel Elliott is still proving to be a star player for the Cowboys. In spite of teams loading up the box to try to slow him down, he still finds success. Zeke has surpassed 1,100 yards on the ground, while already breaking his career high in receiving yards, amassing 423 yards with four games to play.

 

Key Trends

 

The Eagles are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games vs divisional opponents

The total has gone OVER in five of the Eagles’ last six games on the road (avg. combined score: 56.67)

The visiting team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 games in this matchup

Philadelphia is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games

Philadelphia is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games

Philadelphia is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road

Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Dallas's last 21 games

Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

 

 

 

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