NFL Week 15 Writeup
posted Dec 16 2018, 12:20PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 15

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts


Vegas Lines:

Line: IND -3 (-105)

Total : O/U 46.5 (-110)


A week after getting shut out by Jacksonville, the Indianapolis offense didn’t pick up a first down until the second quarter of its Week 14 contest at Houston. However, Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton found their groove and Indy’s pass rush got to Deshaun Watson for five sacks in the Colts’ 24-21 road win. They improved to 7-6 overall and 6-6-1 against the spread.

A highly questionable offensive pass interference call against the Eagles late in the fourth quarter allowed Dallas to survive, advance and win 29-23 in overtime. Their fifth consecutive victory improved their overall and against the spread records to 8-5 this season.

The Colts opened as 2.5-point home favorites, but that ticked up to -3 Sunday night. The Cowboys moneyline is +109 and the point total 47 after it opened at 45.5. Dallas has covered the spread in five straight games, while Indianapolis’ win at Houston was its first cover in three games.


Key Trends


The total has gone UNDER in the Colts’ last four games (avg. combined score: 37.5).

The Colts are 7-0 SU in their last seven games as home favorites.

The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Cowboys’ last 10 games on the road (avg. combined score: 33.8).

Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games

The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Dallas's last 22 games

Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games

Indianapolis is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home







Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers


Vegas Lines:

Line: SEA -3.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 43 (-115)


Seattle’s triumph over the Vikings was its fourth in a row, with one of the victories coming in a dominant 43-16 showing against the 49ers only two weeks ago. The Seahawks’ transition to a run-first team has been something to behold, as Pete Carroll’s club leads the league on the ground with a fantastic 153.8 yards per game. Defensively, they’ve only allowed 20.5 points per game – a surprising stat considering the losses they’ve had on that side of the ball over the past year.

The Seahawks’ dominance over the 49ers both at the betting window and on the field is well known. Seattle has won 10 straight over San Fran with an average winning margin of a ridiculous 12.7 points. The Seahawks have covered in 13 of their previous 15 meetings with the Niners and are a scorching 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight contests.


Key Trends


The Seahawks are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games vs the 49ers

The total has gone UNDER in five of the 49ers’ last seven games (avg. combined score: 42.57)

The Seahawks are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games vs the 49ers (avg. winning margin: 12.7)

Seattle is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games

Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

San Francisco is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games

San Francisco is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games at home






New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers


Vegas Lines:

Line: NE -2.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 54.5 (-105)


The 7-5-1 Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves in a downward spiral, dropping their last three games, and now welcome the 9-4 New England Patriots to Heinz Field. Pittsburgh has been on the losing end in each of the last five contests with New England, including their most recent battle in Week 15 last year when the Pats earned a 27-24 road win, but it is the Steelers who are a slight 1-point favorite Sunday with the total opening at 49 points.

A common theme over the last four playoffs has been the appearance of Pittsburgh, but a three-game losing slide has its postseason hopes hanging by a thread, as a Week 1 tie provides the slightest edge over Indianapolis, Miami, Tennessee and Baltimore, all at 7-6. The Steelers are coming off a trio of losses against the AFC West, two on the road and one at home, and don’t have a favorable schedule with three weeks remaining.

You have to go back to 2013 to find a season in which New England dropped four road games and that is exactly what it has done thus far with all four of the Patriots’ defeats coming away from home. They haven’t dropped five away games in a year since 2009 when they were beaten six times.

The Pats look like a completely different team when they play at Gillette Stadium. On the road, they average nearly 100 fewer yards, score 10 fewer points and allow six more points against.


Key Trends


Pittsburgh averages the second-most passing yards per game (319.1)

The total has gone OVER in 11 of Pittsburgh’s last 13 games at home (avg. combined score: 60.77)

New England is 5-0 SU in its last five games vs Pittsburgh (avg. winning margin: 12.8)

New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

New England is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games

New England is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games on the road

Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Pittsburgh is 17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games

Pittsburgh is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home















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1. Josh Reynolds (WR) - LA Rams

2. Lamar Jackson (QB) - Baltimore Ravens

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Risky Picks
Heavy interest on daring parlay bets with (straight up, spread and o/u) my beer money. Follow My picks daily to see if I achieve gambling alcoholism....

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