NFL Week 16 Writeup
posted Dec 23 2018, 12:41PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 16

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

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Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles


Vegas Lines:

Line: PHI -2 (-105)

Total : O/U 47 (-110)



The Philadelphia Eagles’ season is still alive following a huge upset against the Los Angeles Rams and they now sit just one game out of an NFC wild-card spot as they welcome the red-hot Houston Texans to Lincoln Financial Field. Houston, currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC, has won 10 of its last 11 games and opened the week as a 3.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 45 points.

The Philadelphia Eagles were in disarray, staring at elimination from the 2018 playoff race, and to add insult to injury, franchise quarterback Carson Wentz went down with another injury. That left Super Bowl hero Nick Foles to try to keep their season alive as they faced the 11-2 Los Angeles Rams in Los Angeles as 13.5-point underdogs.

So obviously it makes sense that they would win, 30-23, showing a renewed energy and compete level against one of the league’s premier teams.

That’s the good news. The bad news: That win came over a Rams team that also looks to be trending in the wrong direction, having committed seven turnovers in its past two contests and looking dramatically different in three games since the bye from the juggernaut that started the season.

Now, the worse news: The Eagles are facing a Houston Texans team that has won 10 of its last 11 games, the only loss coming to an equally hot Indianapolis Colts squad, and is showing very few signs of slowing down.

In their Week 15 victory over the New York Jets last Saturday, Deshaun Watson and company again did not commit a turnover, the seventh time in their past eight games they have gone turnover-free. Houston has the fifth-fewest turnovers in the NFL, and not giving away any freebies allows the Texans to make the most out of their drives, while keeping their defense fresh.

And a fresh Houston defense is bad for opposing offenses — mainly quarterbacks. J.J. Watt is healthy and back to his Defensive Player of the Year form, currently tied for second in the NFL with 14.5 sacks. Jadeveon Clowney, the former first overall pick, wreaks havoc from the other edge, with eight sacks himself and 14 tackles for a loss.

The Eagles definitely rallied behind Foles in Week 15, but holding court against a Texans club playing peak football is going to be a tall task. With their pass rush working, their ball protection nearly flawless and a first-round bye theirs to lose, I think they will be just a little bit too much for the Eagles to overcome.

It will be a close contest, but look for the Texans to cover when it’s all said and done.



Key Trends


The OVER has hit in three of the last four matchups between these teams (avg. combined score: 49.0).

Philadelphia is 9-2 SU and ATS in its last 11 home games against teams with winning records.

Houston is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 early afternoon games.

Houston is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games

Houston is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

Houston is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road

Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Philadelphia is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games

Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Philadelphia is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home





Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints


Vegas Lines:

Line: NO -6.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 53 (-110)



Fresh off a huge win over the New England Patriots while halting a three-game losing streak, the 8-5-1 SU Pittsburgh Steelers are in tough in Week 16 against a 12-2 New Orleans Saints team that’s won five of six home games in 2018. Sportsbooks opened the Saints as 5.5-point favorites with a total of 53.5.

Pittsburgh’s win over New England was badly needed for a variety of reasons, but the Steelers haven’t wrapped up the AFC North just yet. With Baltimore right on their heels, a win in the Bayou State would give them back-to-back wins over Super Bowl contenders. The loss of James Connor has hampered the running game, but he’s expected to return from a two-game absence to play against the Saints.

When it comes to the total, bettors may want to pay close attention to the OVER in this one. In the past five matchups between the squads, the OVER is 4-1 with an average combined score of 55.6 points.


Key Trends


The total has gone OVER in four of the Steelers’ last five games vs the Saints (avg. combined score: 55.6).

The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four games at home.

The Steelers are 10-2-1 SU in their last 13 games on the road.

Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

Pittsburgh is 10-2-1 SU in its last 13 games on the road

New Orleans is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games

New Orleans is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games

New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home





Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawks


Vegas Lines:

Line: NE -2.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 54.5 (-105)



The word “desperate” isn’t usually used to describe an 11-3 team at this point of the season, but thanks to being upset at home by the Chargers in Week 15, the Chiefs are in serious danger of losing their grasp on a first-round playoff bye, which would have been unimaginable a few weeks ago.

Despite the letdown, they’ll come into Seattle as a -2.5 favorite vs a Seahawks team that’s on an unreal run in night games, posting a 24-6-4 ATS record. Lots of points are expected as the game has one of the larger totals of the week at 53.5.

Fading the Seahawks as a home dog in recent years has been a horrendous investment strategy as they’ve covered eight consecutive spreads in that spot and, going back to December 2008, they’ve posted an 18-5 ATS record when getting points at home. They covered in their lone game as a home dog this season vs the Rams and as an underdog overall in 2018 they’re an impressive 4-1-1 ATS.

Inconveniently for us bettors, recent trends also favor the Chiefs in this spot as they’ve been fantastic on the road, going 4-1-1 ATS this season and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.

Given Seattle’s reputation for having one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, I think this is a fair spread. However, I think Kansas City would be closer to -3.5 had it not been for the loss to the Chargers last week, which was a bit of a fluke. According to ESPN Stats & Info, teams were 0-88 SU this season when trailing by 14 or more points in the final five minutes of a game. It sucked being on the wrong end of that one.



Key Trends



Seattle is 18-5 ATS as a home underdog since December 2008.

Kansas City has the best first-half spread record in the NFL — 11-3 ATS.

Seattle is 24-6-4 ATS in its last 34 night games.

Kansas City is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Kansas City is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games

Kansas City is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road

Seattle is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games

Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games

Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home



















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2. Lamar Jackson (QB) - Baltimore Ravens


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Risky Picks
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