NFL Week 17 Writeup
posted Dec 30 2018, 12:41PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 17

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans


Vegas Lines:

Line: HOU -7 (-105)

Total : O/U 39.5 (-110)





If Cody Kessler was promoted because Blake Bortles was a sub-optimal quarterback, what does it mean when Kessler is benched in favor of Bortles in a meaningless Week 16 game at Miami? Jacksonville’s 17-7 road win over the Dolphins confirms the playoff team of a year ago remains a riddle, wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. The Jaguars are 5-10 straight up and 5-8-2 against the spread this season.

Houston opened as a 10-point home favorite, but that spread was trimmed to -7. Jacksonville’s moneyline is +300 and the point total is 40.5. The Texans (+3.5) won and covered 20-7 at Jacksonville back in late October.

Jaguars – Before he was removed from the game, Cody Kessler led just his second touchdown drive in 32 possessions as the Jaguars quarterback. Bortles has to start this week, right?

Top-five draft pick Leonard Fournette has averaged 41.6 rush yards per game over the past three weeks running behind a line that has placed four of its five starters on injured reserve. The Texans defense averages nearly three sacks per game. It could get ugly in the Jacksonville backfield. Viewer discretion is advised.

This will be the first time this season that the Jaguars are road dogs of seven or more points. They are 6-3-1 ATS under those conditions over their past 10 and 6-1 ATS over their past seven.

Texans – Houston definitely missed Lamar Miller’s services in Week 16. Alfred Blue and D’Onta Foreman combined for 13 yards on 11 carries. Miller is dealing with an ankle injury sustained two weeks ago at New York, but coach Bill O’Brien says he’s trending toward returning against the Jaguars. In the season’s first meeting, Miller rushed 22 times for 100 yards with a touchdown. Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 145 rush yards per game over its past three.

Watson has been completing well above 70 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns, no interceptions and three rushing touchdowns over his past five games. The Jaguars have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69 percent of their passes over the past three weeks, which is the NFL’s sixth-highest rate.

The Texans secondary has allowed a league-high 358.7 pass yards per game. If Kessler and/or Bortles have any chance of hanging with Houston, it’ll be via the air.

This will be the third time this season that the Texans are a home favorite of seven or more points. They’re 1-1 ATS in 2018, but 3-7 ATS over their past 10 under those conditions.



Key Trends

The Texans are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games in the early afternoon.

The Texans are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games at home after consecutive road games.

The Jaguars are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games vs their division on the road.

Jacksonville is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games

Jacksonville is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games

Jacksonville is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Houston is 6-12-2 ATS in its last 20 games

Houston is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games

Houston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home





Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers


Vegas Lines:

Line: PIT -14 (-110)

Total : O/U 45.5 (-110)




A couple of avoidable results have taken the Pittsburgh Steelers’ playoff hopes out of their own hands and into the hands of Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield. A Week 1 tie plus losses in Denver and Oakland leave the Steelers with a difficult path to the playoffs in Week 17. Pittsburgh needs a win plus a Browns win over Baltimore to win the AFC North. A wild-card berth is impossible.

Pittsburgh is favored by more than two touchdowns over division rival Cincinnati at home this Sunday, and while the Steelers have been a profitable spread bet this year at 8-6-1 ATS, they are 2-9 ATS as a favorite of 14 points or more since 1992 – with both ATS wins coming in 2010. Pittsburgh won the first meeting this season 28-21.

Recency bias will play a factor for Bengals bettors this week as it looked like the Browns were home free to cover the 10 points this past week until the Bengals put up an 18-spot in the fourth, hitting one of the worst (best?) backdoor covers of this NFL season depending on who you were betting on.

In fact, that made the Bengals 2-for-2 in covering double-digit spreads as the underdog this season. They covered +16.5 at the Chargers in Week 14 in Los Angeles, making them not only 2-for-2 covering double-digit spreads this season, but 2-for-2 on the road as well. They’ll get a shot at the hat trick in Pennsylvania in Week 17.


Key Trends


Pittsburgh is 2-9 ATS as a favorite of 14 points or more since 1992.

Cincinnati is 0-7 SU and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog of 14 points or more.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh’s last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati.

Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

Cincinnati is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road

Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games

Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home





Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans


Vegas Lines:

Line: IND -4.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 44 (-105)




The Colts and Titans will get the 2018 NFL postseason started a week early when they meet on Sunday night in a winner-gets-in game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Originally scheduled for Sunday afternoon, the NFL decided to flex Colts-Titans to prime time – given the high-stakes nature of the game.

Marcus Mariota left the Titans’ Week 16 game against the Redskins with an elbow injury and with his status for this weekend’s AFC South showdown in question, bookmakers opened Andrew Luck and the Colts as three-point road favorites.

Because they're my team, I usually try to avoid betting on the Colts but this kind of feels like a freebie. Indy might be the hottest team in the NFL right now - winners of eight of their last nine - and they've gone 17-3 against the Titans over their last 20 matchups.

When these teams met back in Week 11 at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Colts put together one of their most comprehensive games of the season, sending the Titans home with a 38-10 loss. Indy is a bad matchup for Tennessee and if Luck comes to play on Sunday, I don't see how the Titans stop the Colts offense.

Another reason to like Indy -3 is the high probability that this line moves if Mariota is ruled out. It took a long time for books to open this line because of the question marks surrounding Mariota's health. If he can't go, Blaine Gabbert will get the call for Tennessee and this line will plummet.

By opening the line, though, bookmakers expect that Mariota will play but even if he does suit up, there's no guarantee he'll finish the game. 

If you look up the Tennessee Titans on Wikipedia, it’s likely you’ll see Andrew Luck’s name in the box that identifies who owns the team.

Luck, 10-0 all-time against the division rival (and 4-0 against Mariota), has almost as many career wins vs the Titans as he does against the Jags and Texans combined. In those 10 victories, Luck owns a 97.2 quarterback rating and an 18-8 TD-to-interception ratio (not great).

The Colts are clicking right now, offensively, defensively and even on special teams. It’s going to take a perfect game plan or a lot of un-luck for the Titans to get the result here and I’m betting they don’t.



Key Trends


Andrew Luck has a 10-0 SU career record against the Titans

The Titans are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last 9 games vs divisional opponents

The Colts are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games at night

Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games

Indianapolis is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 11 games on the road

Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games

Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home





















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Risky Picks
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