NFL Playoffs Week 2 (Sun)
posted Jan 13 2019, 11:32AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Playoffs Week 2

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

 

 

 

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots

4:35

Vegas Lines:

Line: NE -4 (-110)

Total : O/U 47.5 (-110)

 

 

The Patriots may have had their ups and downs this season but there’s no debate about their ability to win at Gillette Stadium, where they finished 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in eight games and where they haven’t lost a playoff game since 2013. On the other hand, the Chargers are 8-1 SU and ATS in nine road games this year and haven’t lost this season outside of California.

The Patriots opened as 5-point favorites (since moved to -4) with a total of 48.5 (since moved to 47).

After suffocating the Ravens in the wild-card round and pushing their record to 8-1 SU and ATS in nine road games this season, the Chargers may be the best team left in the AFC that could dethrone New England. Los Angeles’s defense sacked Lamar Jackson seven times in that game and held the Ravens to a total of 11 first downs.

The Chargers pass rush and Philip Rivers’ passing ability would be the two areas where they’ll have the edge in this game. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa seemed like they were in the backfield all day during the wild-card game and, historically, the way to beat the Patriots is to rush four linemen and get constant pressure without blitzing because Tom Brady is one of the few quarterbacks left in the NFL who is strictly a pocket passer. Disrupt Brady’s timing and it will open up the ability for the secondary to close in on the opposing receivers.

Outside of Patrick Mahomes and Ben Roethlisberger, the Patriots haven’t faced a quarterback with the capability of Rivers this season. His role will be vital in exploiting the Pats defense through the air as New England allowed 29 passing touchdowns this season and ranked 22nd in passing yards allowed per game. Compared to how the Patriots fare against the run, allowing seven rushing touchdowns (ranked second) and 112.7 yards per game (ranked 11th), the secondary is the weak spot. 

Speaking of Rivers, while his playoff history isn’t spotless by any means, he still keeps games close. In six road playoff games in his career, the Chargers are 3-3 SU and an excellent 5-1 ATS. That being said, OddsShark pays me to remind bettors that the Chargers went into Foxborough last season in Week 8 and while the final score was 21-13, the game wasn’t even close. The Patriots led 21-7 at the start of the fourth quarter and Rivers was 17-for-30 for 212 yards passing.

 

 

Key Trends

 

The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in 6 road playoff games with Philip Rivers as the starter

The Patriots are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as home favorites

The UNDER has hit in 8 of the Patriots’ last 9 games (avg. combined score: 40.8)

LA Chargers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

LA Chargers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games

LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

New England is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 9 games

New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home

New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

 

 

 

 

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams

8:15

Vegas Lines:

Line: NO -8.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 52.5 (-110)

 

Less than a year after helping the Philadelphia Eagles deliver their first Super Bowl in franchise history, Nick Foles and the underdog Eagles lived up to their title yet again in a 16-15 win over the Chicago Bears on Wild Card Weekend. The Eagles face a tough test against a well-rested New Orleans Saints team in the divisional round, where sportsbooks opened Philly as an 8-point road underdog with a total of 50.5.

After Foles connected with Golden Tate for a clutch fourth-down touchdown in the final minute of the fourth quarter to put the Eagles up by one, Philadelphia needed a bit of luck to advance. That happened in the form of a missed 43-yard field goal by Bears kicker Cody Parkey to end Chicago’s season in heartbreaking fashion. Foles’ numbers weren’t eye-popping (25-for-40, 266 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions) but he was rock-solid when the Eagles needed him the most.

The Eagles and Saints already met once this season with New Orleans dominating Philly 48-7 in a blowout victory in Week 11. Drew Brees threw four touchdown passes and Mark Ingram rushed for two scores in the triumph, as the Saints’ 546 total yards were the most they gained in the campaign. Carson Wentz was under center for that contest, however, and the Eagles have been a much different team since Foles replaced him as the starter in Week 15.

Philadelphia turned around its season after that loss to the Saints by winning five of its final six regular-season games. The Eagles continue to get the job done as underdogs, going 5-2 SU and ATS in their past seven when getting the underdog label. They’ve been far from a safe bet when facing the Saints, as New Orleans is 4-1 SU and ATS in the previous five matchups between the NFC clubs.

The Eagles clearly have the toughest draw on the board in the divisional round, and their opening +8 number shows oddsmakers aren’t expecting this one to be particularly close. That’s because New Orleans is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL, evidenced by the Saints winning 14 of their last 16 at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. New Orleans is 5-0 at home in the playoffs since Sean Payton took over as head coach in 2006.

 

Key Trends

 

The Eagles are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games vs the Saints

The total has gone UNDER in three of the Eagles’ last four games vs the Saints (avg. combined score: 50.5)

The Saints are 14-2 SU in their last 16 games at home

Philadelphia is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road

Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road

New Orleans is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games

New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

New Orleans is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games

New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

 

 

 

 

 

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