NFL Playoffs Championship Weekend
posted Jan 20 2019, 11:07AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Playoffs - Championship Weekend

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints


Vegas Lines:

Line: NO -3 (-102)

Total : O/U 56.5 (-108)



It seemed like the Rams and Saints, who shared identical 13-3 SU records in the regular season, were on a collision course to meet in the NFC championship game. This is the second meeting between the clubs in Louisiana this season, as the Saints prevailed over the Rams in a 45-35 shootout in Week 9.

New Orleans raced out to an early lead before L.A. stormed back in the form of 21 unanswered points, yet the Saints’ 10-point fourth quarter put them ahead for good. In the 2018 campaign, the Rams were 13-1 SU when scoring 28 or more points, with the lone setback coming against the Saints. In the regular season, the Saints went 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS at home, while the Rams were 6-2 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road.

The Saints defense has kicked into high gear over the past few months, evidenced by New Orleans allowing opposing offenses to average only 16.9 points per game since Week 7. In that span, Sean Payton’s defense has collected 28 sacks. Speaking of Payton, the head coach improved to 6-0 SU all-time in home playoff games since joining the team in 2006 in light of New Orleans’ 20-14 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles in the divisional round.

Here’s another trend working in the Saints’ favor: entering this week, home teams have won 10 straight conference championship games. In those 10 playoff contests, favorites have gone 8-2 SU. The last road team to win in the NFC championship game was the San Francisco 49ers in 2012, topping the Atlanta Falcons 28-24 at the Georgia Dome. New Orleans’ moneyline price was sitting at -175 at Bovada as of this writing.



Key Trends


The OVER is 4-0 in the last four NFC championship games

The Rams are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games on the road vs the Saints (avg. losing margin: 18.67)

The Saints are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games at home

LA Rams is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

LA Rams is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games

LA Rams is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games on the road

New Orleans is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games

New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

New Orleans is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games




New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs


Vegas Lines:

Line: KC -3 (-115)

Total : O/U 56.5 (-110)


Patriots vs Chiefs is the AFC title game that we all wanted. Well, except for those who bet on the Colts and Chargers last week and the millions of Patriots haters out there, but you get my point — this is an incredible matchup. The teams previously met in Week 6 in one of the more exciting games of the season that saw the Patriots win 43-40, but the Chiefs covered as 3.5-point underdogs. This time around, the Chiefs find themselves as a 3-point favorite and the total is at 55.5.

There’s no shortage of storylines here — Brady is old, Mahomes is young, Gronk might retire, etc. We won’t concern ourselves with those, but what we will do is take a deep dive into the numbers to hopefully find you a betting edge to help you nail your pick for the AFC championship game.

I’m sure many used the Patriots’ domination at home as a reason to justify their pick vs the Chargers last week and rightfully so, but outside of New England this season, the Patriots have been awful. They’re 3-5 SU and ATS with all five losses coming to teams that didn’t even make the playoffs. This was the first time since 2009 that New England lost five or more games on the road in the regular season.

Digging into some stats, the Patriots averaged an astonishing 12.2 fewer points on the road compared with at home, which is the second-biggest disparity in the NFL after the Raiders.

Instead of rambling on, here’s a table that highlights the Patriots’ drop-off in some key areas when on the road this season.



Key Trends


The Patriots are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games as an underdog

The Chiefs are allowing just 17.4 points in home games this season — tied for third-best in the NFL

The Patriots are averaging 12.2 fewer points per game on the road compared with at home

New England is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 10 games

New England is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games on the road

New England is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games on the road

Kansas City is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games

Kansas City is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games

Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home


















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Risky Picks
Heavy interest on daring parlay bets with (straight up, spread and o/u) my beer money. Follow My picks daily to see if I achieve gambling alcoholism....

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