Belmont Stakes 151 Preview
posted Jun 04 2019, 07:46PM
story by Pat Infante
posted in All Sports, Betting

Preview of the 151st Belmont Stakes

 Joevia is likely over matched in this race but in the Belmont everyone always has a shot. He had a disastrous Wood Memorial but came back and won the Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth Park. He is likely the pace setter in this race and there really isnt much else in the strategy here with this one. Get out front and see how long he could go.

 

 Everfast finished 2nd in the Preakness. There was no amount of handicapping that could of ever foreseen that coming. We will find out whether his Preakness effort was trip aided by a golden rail at Pimlico on Preakness day or whether he is a late developing colt peaking at the right time.

 

 Master Fencer is the Japanese horse who ran a surprisingly very nice 6th in the Kentucky Derby. He comes back after 5 weeks off to run in the Belmont.  He had a stumble in a work but X rays came back fine although it did quite some of his hype.

 

 Tax finished 14th in the Kentucky Derby after hanging tough for 2nd to Tacitus in the Wood Memorial. He gets Irad Ortiz Jr abord who won the Belmont in 2016 with Creator and road Hofburg to a third place finish last year. I think he could be in play to hit the exotics as long odds.

 

 Bourbon War totally tanked the Preakness. Maybe it was the addition of blinkers which will be coming back off, but he just didn’t run that day. He is typically a late running closer which isn't really the best running style for the Belmont. I prefer a steady grinder who can just click off even fractions.

 

 Spinoff finished 18th in the Derby but you can just draw a line through that race. Spinoff does not like a wet track. His workouts since the Kentucky Derby have looked good and I expect a much better performance in this race. I can see him carving out a stalking trip and if he’s good enough hes going to have a clear shot to make his run for it the last quarter mile.  

 

 Sir Winston finished 2nd in the local Belmont prep the Peter Pan Stakes behind Global Campaign who is not in this race and ahead of Intrepid Heart. Visually he closed like a rocket on the leader but I think it was more the leader tiring and Sir Winston just kept grinding which is a good style for the mile and a half Belmont. He is kind of like a less talented Tacitus on paper but at a much bigger price.

 

 Intrepid Heart, as with Tacitus is sired by Tapit who has sired 3 of the past 5 Belmont winners and is a big time contender in this even though he is lightly raced. This quote from trainer Todd Pletcher says it all - "In Intrepid Heart's case, literally, since the day he was purchased, the thought was in our minds that this horse is really bred for the Belmont Stakes, Tapit has had tremendous success as a stallion in the Belmont, and this horse is out of a Touch Gold mare, and Touch Gold won the Belmont. He's also a half-brother to Commissioner, who (narrowly) lost in the Belmont. There's a strong pedigree indication he'll handle the mile-and-a-half."

 

 War of Will comes back off winning the Preakness and will be one of the top choices. The concern here is the obvious - being the only horse to run in all 3 Triple Crown races how much does he have left in the tank?

 

 Tacitus is royally bred. I absolutely love this horse in this race. He is tactical but can also steady and be a one pace grinder and that style usually does well in the Belmont. It's been a wacky Triple Crown season to say the least but maybe this is the race where things return to normal. He is the logical choice in a race like this will be pounded down thus giving little value for a win bet but I will key him in my exotics.

 

Betting Strategy 

Needless to say this has been quite a wacky Triple Crown season. From the Kentucky Derby DQ and a 65-1 being placed on top to Bodexpress running the Preakness rider-less being talked about more than the winner. Iv certainly taken my lumps this year as I had a futures bet on Maximum Security at 200-1, then after the Derby fwlt really strongly about War of Will then cooled on him a bit as the race neared, none the less no amount of handicapping could of ever predicted Everfast would run 2nd in the Preakness. In hinesight I should of stuck with my gut and just pounded War of Will with a large win bet in the Preakness. All in all in this race im just keeping it simple. Im going to bet it as follows. 

$1 Tri =  $72

Tacitus w/ ALL w/ ALL

$.50 Tri = $8

Tacitus, Intrepid Heart w/ Tacitus, Intrepid Heart w/ ALL

$.50 Tri = $8

Tacitus, Intrepid Heart w/ ALL w/ Tacitus, Intrepid Heart

$.50 Tri = $8

War of Will w/ ALL w/ Tacitus, Intrepid Heart

$.50 Tri = $8

War of Will w/ Tacitus, Intrepid Heart w/ ALL

 

Late Pick 4 Starting Race 8

.50 = $20 ticket

Race 8 - 1 Honest Mischief, 9 Mind Control

Race 9 - 1 Coal Front, 2 McKinzie, 3 Mitole, 7 Firenze Fire

Race 10 - 8 Bricks And Mortar

Race 11 - 1 Joevia, 4 Tax, 6 Spinoff, 8 Intrepid Heart, 10 Tacitus

Pat Infante
I am from the Jersey Shore. Not the TV show, the actual geographical area. I have been in the car business for over 18 years. Being in the car busines...





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