NFL 2019 Week 1 Writeup
posted Sep 08 2019, 10:59AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 1

*2019 NFL Season Record:

*2019 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

 

 

 

Minnesota Viking @ Atlanta Falcons

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: MIN -3.5 (-105)

Total : O/U 47 (-105)

 

 

Minnesota News & Notes

The Vikings thought they had added the final piece to their playoff puzzle, signing quarterback Kirk Cousins prior to the 2018 season. Instead, a struggling offensive line, subpar play from Cousins and the absence of star running back Dalvin Cook meant they missed the playoffs with an 8-7-1 record.

The Vikings’ biggest undoing was having the NFL’s third-worst run game with Cook being injured or limited through the majority of the season. Entering 2019, they have Cook back fully healthy, offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski (and his commitment to running the ball) had his interim tag removed and they added two upgrades to the offensive line.

With the expected improved offensive line play, a healthy Cook and better results from Cousins this year, look for the Vikings to try to break the trend of the UNDER hitting in five of their last six games, but continue their recent dominance of the NFC South, where they are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games.

 

Atlanta News & Notes

The Falcons also experienced a disappointing 2018, seeing their record slip from 10-6 to 7-9 and also missing the playoffs. The Falcons’ aerial attack was fine — Atlanta finished 10th in scoring and fourth in passing — as Matt Ryan threw for a career-high 4,924 yards, 35 touchdowns and a career-low seven interceptions. But their defense was their Achilles heel.

Atlanta yielded the eighth-most points and fifth-most yards in the league last season, in large part due to the absence of safety Keanu Neal and linebacker Deion Jones, who played a combined seven games. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, over the past three seasons Atlanta allows a completion on 63.5 percent of passes, 6.7 yards/attempt and 3.6 percent touchdown percentage with both on the field. When they are gone, those numbers go up to 69 percent, 7.5 yards/attempt and 6.3 percent.

Both are healthy entering 2019 and should be a big boost to a Falcons defense that looks to help stop their recent trend of going 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall, and 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road.

 

 

Key Trends

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Falcons’ last 7 games vs Minnesota

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 home games

Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 Week 1 games

Atlanta are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games

Atlanta are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Minnesota

Atlanta are 6-12 SU in their last 18 games against Minnesota

Atlanta are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games against Atlanta

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home

Minnesota are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games when playing at home against Atlanta

 

 

 

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: DAL -7 (-115)

Total : O/U 45.5 (-115)

 

New York News & Notes

New York no longer has All-Pro wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to add to the drama of this rivalry, but maybe that is a good thing. Eli Manning will again start the season for the Giants under center with rookie Daniel Jones waiting in the wings. The two-time Super Bowl champion will again lean on his experience here and will not need to worry about how many times he needs to get Beckham the ball.

Instead, Manning should just feed second-year running back Saquon Barkley as much as possible and lean on his defense to make stops. If Elliott is out, that will only help give New York the advantage of controlling the clock with Barkley. This team went 5-2-1 ATS in the second half of 2018, so something was working.

 

Dallas News & Notes

Dallas owner Jerry Jones obviously is more worried about how his team finishes this season than how it starts, and with good reason. The Cowboys were able to win the division by going 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a rocky start. Jones seems to be fine getting Elliott back later in the year so his body does not have the same wear and tear it would have if he played a full 16 games.

Regardless, the real pressure is on quarterback Dak Prescott to perform early in the season, especially if he wants to earn a big contract. Prescott will have wide receiver Amari Cooper from the start, something he did not have last year. The addition of Cooper as a legitimate No. 1 receiver for Prescott after he was acquired from the Oakland Raiders was a major reason why the team finished strong in 2018.

 

Key Trends

 

Dallas saw the UNDER cash in its first three games last year

New York started last season 1-7 SU and 2-5 ATS

Dallas is 4-0 SU and ATS in the past four meetings with New York

NY Giants are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants' last 5 games

NY Giants are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games

NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Dallas

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas' last 6 games

Dallas are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas' last 6 games against NY Giants

Dallas are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home

 

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

8:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: NE -5.5 (-105)

Total : O/U 49 (-111)

 

Pittsburgh News & Notes

Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback, top two running backs and top two receivers are all healthy headed into Week 1. This wasn’t the case when the Steelers covered +2.5 and beat the Patriots 17-10 at Heinz Field last December. Running back James Conner missed the game due to injury and opened the door for Jaylen Samuels’ breakout performance. The rookie back rushed 19 times for 142 yards and caught two passes for 30 yards against the Patriots’ 11th-ranked rush defense.

Ben Roethlisberger was far from elite in that matchup as he finished with a passer rating below 80, but the defense held the Patriots in check as lead running back Sony Michel finished with just 59 rushing yards and New England converted just three of 10 on third down.

The Steelers have been regular-season road dogs of 6 or more points only seven times over the past decade. They are 2-5 straight up but 4-2-1 ATS in those games, including a +7 PUSH at New England back in 2015.

 

New England News & Notes

Although Rob Gronkowski’s offensive dominance waned somewhat during his final NFL season, he still accounted for better than 15 percent of the New England receiving game.

However, Gronk’s absence won’t be felt nearly as much as that of center David Andrews, who is out indefinitely after blood clots were discovered in his lungs. Without Andrews, the Patriots lose one of their most consistent players, team captain and anchor of an O-line challenged with the task of stopping a Steelers front seven that led the league with 52 sacks last season (tie) and return their entire core along with rookie Devin Bush.

If Bill Belichick’s offensive plan heading into 2019 was to lean more on running back Sony Michel and hammer the opposition between the tackles, without Andrews, it may be time to rethink that plan – especially against the Steelers’ sixth-ranked rush defense of a season ago.

New England is 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS, including covers in nine of its last 10, when favored by 6 or more points at home.

 

 

Key Trends

 

The Steelers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 1

The Patriots are 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 as home favorites

Forecast: Temps in the mid-50s, muggy with a 20% chance of rain

Pittsburgh are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games

Pittsburgh are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games

Pittsburgh are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against New England

New England are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England's last 12 games

New England are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games against Pittsburgh

 

 

 

 

 

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