NFL 2019 Week 3 Writeup
posted Sep 22 2019, 11:57AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 3

*2019 NFL Season Record:

*2019 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs


Vegas Lines:

Line: KC -5 (-110)

Total : O/U 51.5 (-105)




Key Trends

The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Ravens’ last 7 games vs the AFC.

The Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

The Chiefs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after consecutive ATS wins.



Baltimore News & Notes

In Week 1, Jackson threw for five touchdowns and 324 yards, but had as many incompletions as rushing attempts (three). Week 2 was more of what we expected from Jackson and, boy, was it great.

The sophomore signal-caller went 24 of 37 for 272 yards and two touchdowns, but added 16 rushes for a whopping 120 yards. Jackson’s dual-threat ability makes the Ravens offense not only difficult to stop, but it keeps their defense rested and ready to attack.

Baltimore, with the highest-scoring offense through two weeks, will get a chance to put up more points against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that allowed the ninth-most points last season and seemingly lives to play in shootout games. If Jackson can keep up his torrid start, the Ravens will have a chance to improve upon a stretch where they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the AFC West … even as a 7-point underdog.

  • Baltimore are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games.
  • Baltimore are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
  • Baltimore are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Kansas City.


Kansas City News & Notes

It’d be too easy to talk about how Patrick Mahomes clearly hasn’t shown a sophomore slump, and how he is the best quarterback in the NFL and so on.

Instead, let’s talk about the fact that the Chiefs seemingly haven’t missed a beat with star wide receiver Tyreek Hill injured. Superstar tight end Travis Kelce has been his usual self, but through two games, two different wide receivers have stepped up.

In Week 1, it was Sammy Watkins, who had 198 receiving yards and three touchdowns. He was quiet in Week 2, as it was Demarcus Robinson who broke out with 172 yards and two scores in a 28-10 win over the Oakland Raiders.

This team has so many weapons it’s a nightmare for defenses, even a unit as talented as Baltimore’s. The total has gone OVER in seven of Kansas City’s last 10 games and, right now, we don’t see any team that can stop that trend.

  • Kansas City are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games.
  • Kansas City are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
  • Kansas City are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games at home.






Pittsburgh Steelers @ San Francisco 49ers


Vegas Lines:

Line: SF -6.5 (-105)

Total : O/U 44.5 (-105)


Key Trends

San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Steelers’ last 7 road games (avg. combined score: 43.57).

The Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.


Pittsburgh News & Notes

The Steelers started the season 0-2, following up a humiliating beatdown to rival New England with a disappointing 28-26 home loss to a Seattle team that was shut out in two previous games at Heinz Field.

To make matters worse, the face of the franchise, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, will have season-ending surgery on his elbow this week, thrusting backup Mason Rudolph into the spotlight to save Pittsburgh’s season.

Rudolph played well in Week 2, but Pittsburgh running back James Conner has struggled in his first two games, and was also seen favoring his knee in the Week 2 loss, while the Steelers secondary was torched again for the second straight game.

Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games, and with all the moving parts around this team this week, that trend could continue to grow.

  • Pittsburgh are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games.
  • Pittsburgh are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road.


San Francisco News & Notes

What a difference a week makes. After an ugly Week 1 win, where the offense didn’t quite look in sync, the 49ers were all on the same page against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 2.

Jimmy Garoppolo threw three touchdowns and the Niners ran for 259 yards in a 41-17 romp, making San Francisco 2-0 in eastern time zone games, a remarkable change from their previous stretch of 0-12 in eastern games from 2015 to 2018.

San Francisco’s win did come at a cost, as starting left tackle Joe Staley went down with a broken fibula. How big an effect this will have on the league’s third-highest scoring team through two weeks remains to be seen, but with a porous Pittsburgh defense on the opposite side of the line in Week 3, the OVER, which has hit in five of the last seven meetings between these teams, could be in play yet again.

  • San Francisco are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • San Francisco are 5-11 SU in their last 16 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games against Pittsburgh.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home.






Los Angeles Rams @ Cleveland Browns


Vegas Lines:

Line: LAR -3.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 47 (-105)



Key Trends

The total has gone OVER in 3 of the Rams’ last 4 games on the East Coast.

The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Browns’ last 12 games at night.

The Rams are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games on the road after winning their 2 most recent road games.



Los Angeles News & Notes

The highly anticipated NFC championship rematch was diluted somewhat when Drew Brees left the game with what was learned to be a ligament tear in his thumb. So, it’s one thing for the Rams defense to hold the Saints to three field goals with Drew Brees behind center, it’s another to hold them to nine points with Teddy Bridgewater leading the charge for the majority of the game. Also, when you look back to Week 1, and knowing the current state of the Panthers, for the Rams to allow Carolina to score 27 points isn’t the defensive efficiency bettors embrace.

On the other side of the football, the Rams offense wasn’t sharp in Week 2. Todd Gurley paced a running back corps that averaged just 3.8 yards per rush. Jared Goff was sacked three times and hit seven times, while the offense converted just five of 13 third downs. It took a couple of home-run pass plays in the second half for the Rams to open up a secure lead over the Saints.

Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald was forced from the game briefly due to a back injury, but later returned. Tight end Tyler Higbee left the game with a chest injury that NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport says turned out to be a lung injury that caused him to cough up blood. He is questionable against the Browns.

  • LA Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
  • LA Rams are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
  • LA Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Cleveland.
  • LA Rams are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Cleveland.


Cleveland News & Notes

Much like the Rams vs Teddy Bridgewater, it’s tough to glean too much useful information from a Browns’ 23-3 win over Trevor Siemian’s/Luke Falk’s Jets.

Let’s start with the good news. Defensive end Myles Garrett played like a man possessed Monday night and finished with three sacks. Odell Beckham’s return to New York did not disappoint as the flashy wide receiver finished with six receptions (including a one-handed snag) for 161 yards and a touchdown. Note: Garrett’s sacks came against an inferior offensive line and Beckham’s stat line against one of the league’s worst secondaries.

On to the bad news. Ahead of a matchup against the Rams pass rush and Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Baker Mayfield was hit six times and taken down for three sacks. He finished 19-35 for 325 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Nick Chubb averaged 3.4 yards per rush on 18 carries. The Browns were 3-for-14 on third downs in a game in which the Jets practically waved the white flag after Siemian was knocked out with an ankle injury.

Finally, the Browns made news for committing 18 penalties in Week 1 against the Titans. Now, Monday night’s box score says they committed “just” nine against the Jets, but that may be updated because if you count the delay of game before their final punt, that should be 10, which is far too many when every yard will matter when the Rams come to town.

  • Cleveland are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.
  • Cleveland are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Cleveland's last 20 games at home.
  • Cleveland are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams.



















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Risky Picks
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