NFL 2019 Week 4 Writeup
posted Sep 29 2019, 11:01AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week4

*2019 NFL Season Record:

*2019 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens


Vegas Lines:

Line: BAL -7 (-110)

Total : O/U46 (-110)




Key Trends

The total has gone UNDER in 3 of the Browns’ last 4 road games (avg. combined score: 37.75).

The Ravens are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.

The Browns are 1-26 SU in their last 27 games as road underdogs.



Cleveland News & Notes

Cleveland held the Rams’ high-powered offense to just 20 points and forced three turnovers, but Baker Mayfield and company struggled to generate any rhythm on offense and couldn’t capitalize on first-and-goal in the final minute as they lost 20-13 at home.

Mayfield completed just 50 percent of his passes for 195 yards and the formula was pretty simple: if he got rid of the ball in under 2.5 seconds, they found success. When he held it longer, it was an absolute disaster: Cleveland’s offensive line has been miserable at protecting Mayfield this season, routinely failing to provide him enough time to go through his progressions.

Against a Ravens defense that likes to blitz and is looking for redemption after getting torched by Kansas City, Mayfield will likely need to rely on quick throws yet again, or the Browns run the risk of continuing the trend of going 1-6 SU in their last seven games against Baltimore.

  • Cleveland are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against Baltimore.
  • Cleveland are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games against Baltimore.
  • Cleveland are 3-17 SU in their last 20 games on the road.
  • Cleveland are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games when playing on the road against Baltimore.


Baltimore News & Notes

Jackson completed 22 of 43 attempts for 267 yards and no touchdowns. Of his 22 completions, only seven of them went to wide receivers, as Jackson struggled on deep throws last week, routinely overthrowing his targets.

What kept Baltimore close to Kansas City was its tried-and-tested power running game. Mark Ingram went off for 103 yards and three touchdowns on just 16 carries, while the Ravens overall ran for 203 yards and had four scores on the ground.

Seeing as Cleveland’s defense could again be missing its entire secondary and held Todd Gurley to just 43 yards rushing, it could be a good bounce-back opportunity for Jackson as the Ravens look to continue their trend of the total going OVER in six of their last eight games against an AFC opponent. 

  • Baltimore are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • Baltimore are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games against Cleveland.
  • Baltimore are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games at home.
  • Baltimore are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against Cleveland.






Oakland Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts


Vegas Lines:

Line: IND -6.5 (-108)

Total : O/U 45.5 (-110)


Key Trends

Oakland is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road in September.

Indianapolis is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games at home.

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oakland’s last 10 games on the East Coast.


Oakland News & Notes

Oakland’s impressive 24-16 start against the Denver Broncos in Week 1 seems like forever ago. The Raiders had no answers for Patrick Mahomes in a 28-10 loss at home to the Kansas City Chiefs, and fared no better in a 34-14 road loss to the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday. Tight end Darren Waller and running back Josh Jacobs have been bright spots on a mostly lackluster Raiders offense.

The Raiders enter this game with a 1-11 SU record in their last 12 games on the road and an 0-4 ATS record in their last four on the road. Oakland is also just 1-5 SU in its last six games against the Colts.

  • Oakland are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games.
  • Oakland are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games.
  • Oakland are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against Indianapolis.


Indianapolis News & Notes

Indianapolis has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2019 season. Projected to be a bottom-feeder in the AFC South after Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement, the Colts have picked up two straight wins – on the road against the Tennessee Titans and at home against the Atlanta Falcons. Jacoby Brissett has been sharp with seven touchdown passes and only one interception on the season, and Indianapolis is one overtime loss to the Los Angeles Chargers away from being undefeated.

Over the Colts’ current 7-0 SU winning streak at home, the team has won by an average of 13.3 points. Indianapolis is 12-3 SU and 9-4-2 ATS over its last 15 games overall.

  • Indianapolis are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indianapolis' last 12 games.
  • Indianapolis are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games.
  • Indianapolis are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games at home.






Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints


Vegas Lines:

Line: DAL -2.5 (-112)

Total : O/U 47.5 (-108)



Key Trends

The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Cowboys’ last 6 games (avg. combined score: 51.67).

The Saints are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Cowboys’ last 5 games at night.


Dallas News & Notes

Although they won and covered a 22-point spread, the Cowboys’ 10-6 halftime lead over the Dolphins sticks out to me. If not for Tony Pollard’s 16-yard touchdown run with less than four minutes to go in the game, that sluggish start against an inferior opponent may have cost Dallas the ATS win. The slow start was reminiscent of the Browns’ pedestrian effort at the Jets two weeks ago, but the difference for the Cowboys was how they smacked the Dolphins in the face come the second half.

Coaching is based on making in-game adjustments and Dallas did a great job pounding the run game when it was evident the Dolphins’ porous secondary was cheating back to cut off Dak Prescott’s passing lanes. In the end, it didn’t seem to matter – Prescott finished with 246 passing yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while Ezekiel Elliott and Pollard combined for 228 rush yards and a touchdown against Miami’s quasi-prevent pass defense.

Once again, the Dallas defense thrived. They finished with three sacks and 11 hits on Dolphins quarterbacks. Through three weeks, they’re one of only four teams allowing fewer than 15 points per game. Granted, wins over the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins don’t solidify your perch atop the NFC totem pole, but the quality of previous wins may not matter against Saints-lite.

  • Dallas are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas' last 6 games.
  • Dallas are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
  • Dallas are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against New Orleans.


New Orleans News & Notes

While the Saints may have earned the upset win at Seattle, a deeper dive into the box score divulges the obvious: Teddy Bridgewater’s offense is not good. New Orleans built a 14-0 cushion for the second-string quarterback via punt and fumble return touchdowns, which if you omit, Seattle wins and covers.

Bridgewater finished 19-27 for 177 yards and two touchdowns, while the rush offense averaged fewer than four yards per carry. New Orleans finished 3-for-11 on third downs and ran 26 fewer plays than the Seahawks due to 11 fewer first downs. Initially, it was fair to throw Bridgewater’s game against the Rams out, but with the significant offensive regression in both the Rams and Seahawks contests, though expected, the flaws are still concerning.

The Saints defense finished without a sack and surrendered 515 total yards at Seattle. Russell Wilson carved ‘em up for 406 passing and 51 rushing yards with four combined touchdowns. The trickle-down analysis of this is that the Cowboys offense is more balanced and executing at a higher level than the Seahawks’ through the first three weeks.

  • New Orleans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans' last 12 games.
  • New Orleans are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans' last 6 games against Dallas.



















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