NFL 2019 Week 5 Writeup
posted Oct 06 2019, 11:41AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 5

*2019 NFL Season Record:

*2019 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Jacksonville Jaguars @ Carolina Panthers


Vegas Lines:

Line: CAR -3 (-115)

Total : O/U 40.5 (-105)




Key Trends

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Jaguars’ last 7 games.

The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as favorites.

Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home after consecutive road games.


Jags News & Notes

Even when they were down 17-3 late in the first half last week against Denver, the Jaguars didn’t abandon the running game. In fact, they may have been even more committed to it, opening the second half with a 10-minute touchdown drive during which they ran the ball on 11 of 16 plays. Persistence paid off as Leonard Fournette posted his first 100-yard game since 2017, collecting 225 yards on 29 carries as the Jags rallied for a 26-24 victory.

Jacksonville didn’t even make a secret of its intentions to pound the rock, often lining up 300-pound offensive lineman Cedric Ogbuehi as an extra tight end during the second half. “They were pushing us around,” admitted Broncos head coach Vic Fangio. “We just got whipped there.”

Facing a Carolina team that ranks 23rd against the run, it seems safe to expect more of the same from the Jags’ attack as they look to make things easier on rookie Minshew.

  • Jacksonville are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games.
  • Jacksonville are 4-12 SU in their last 16 games.
  • Jacksonville are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games on the road.


Panthers News & Notes

After opening up the season with a pair of home losses, the Panthers got things back on track with victories at Arizona and Houston. Head coach Ron Rivera says going on the road may have actually been the best thing to happen for his squad, noting that travelling and being in hostile territory can bring teams together.

But now they’ve got to figure out how to get the job done at home again. Bank of America Stadium hasn’t been too friendly lately to the Panthers, who have lost their last five games on their home field — including twice as favorites.

Allen’s been good in place of Cam Newton, but the Carolina defense also deserves its share of credit for the midseason turnaround. Over their past two games, the Panthers have recorded 14 sacks and forced four turnovers. On Sunday, they limited Houston’s Deshaun Watson to just 160 passing yards while also holding him in check on the ground, allowing 12 yards on three carries.

  • Carolina are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games.
  • Carolina are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games against Jacksonville.




Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys


Vegas Lines:

Line: DAL -3.5 (-102)

Total : O/U 46.5 (-102)


Key Trends

The Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after an ATS loss.

The Packers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs the Cowboys.

Dallas is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games at home.


Packers News & Notes

Green Bay’s defense allowed just 35 points through the first three games but coughed up 34 last Thursday, with the primary culprit being the run defense. The Eagles gashed them for 176 yards and 5.3 yards per rush. This is becoming a major concern for the Packers; they allowed 148 rushing yards against in Week 3 and 198 yards in Week 2.

On offense, the Packers operated with a dangerous aerial attack and a total inability to run the ball. They lost star receiver Davante Adams late in the game with a toe injury. He did not practice Monday and is considered day to day. If he can’t play, moving the chains – and putting up points – will be a lot more difficult for a Green Bay team that has won just two of its last 11 road games.

  • Green Bay are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • Green Bay are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.
  • Green Bay are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against Dallas.
  • Green Bay are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against Dallas.


Cowboys News & Notes

Dallas’ offense was shut down completely, generating 257 total yards in a 12-10 loss. To make matters worse, Dallas lost starting left tackle Tyron Smith to an ankle injury. Early reports are that it’s not as serious as originally thought, though his status for Week 5 is still in question.

The one positive for the Cowboys offense is they face a Packers defense that allows the seventh-most rushing yards per game. This is a good week for Dallas to feature Ezekiel Elliott; doing so could go a long way for the Cowboys to reverse the recent trend of going 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the NFC North.

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas' last 7 games.
  • Dallas are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of Dallas' last 20 games against Green Bay.
  • Dallas are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games at home.




Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs


Vegas Lines:

Line: KC -10.5 (-108)

Total : O/U 56 (-118)



Key Trends

The Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road vs teams with winning records.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Chiefs’ last 5 games (avg. combined score: 59.4).

The Colts are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games before a bye.


Colts News & Notes

Derek Carr is a quarterback you can rattle in the pocket, but the Colts pass rush only hit him twice last Sunday. This allowed the Raiders offense to find a groove where they controlled the clock via a run game that averaged 5.9 yards per carry and dominated time of possession 34-26.

Also, a quick glance at the final Colts box score won’t do any good as most of their offensive stats were compiled during garbage time as they tried to eke out a win.

The biggest betting storyline heading into Kansas City is who is healthy, active and ready to compete because if Jacoby Brissett doesn’t have Hilton or Mack, and Leonard remains in the concussion protocol, there’s little chance the Colts can hang around on the road. Mack accounts for 64 percent of Indy’s rush production, while – despite missing the last game – Hilton still accounts for 21 percent of the Colts’ receiving yards. If Mack can bounce back, he faces a Chiefs rush defense that allows nearly 150 rush yards per game.

The Colts’ 25.5 points allowed per game through the first month ranks in the bottom 10 of the league and tied with the Raiders.

  • Indianapolis are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games.
  • Indianapolis are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against Kansas City.
  • Indianapolis are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games against Kansas City.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis' last 7 games on the road.


Chiefs News & Notes

Patrick Mahomes had tossed at least two touchdown passes in 14 consecutive games and was the first quarterback with at least 350 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in three straight games. His final line from Detroit:

24-42 | 315 Pass Yards | 0 TD | 0 INT | 54 Rush Yards (career high)

You think coach Reich is watching this film to figure out how the Lions secondary was able to cheat back to slow the Chiefs’ high-powered pass offense? This league is all about adjustments and with Reich being a former quarterback, this week’s film study will be as important as ever.

Aside from a controversial fumble, scoop and score for six, the Lions really let the Chiefs off easy considering Kansas City lost three fumbles last Sunday. Andy Reid’s defense has now allowed 26 or more points in three of the first four games and the 6.3 yards allowed per play ranks 29th out of 32 teams. If the Colts get Hilton and Mack back in time for this matchup, you’d have to imagine they could hang within 10, right? Heck, the Jaguars scored 26 on this defense.

On the injury front, defensive end Alex Okafor left the Lions game with a hip injury and is questionable along with running back Damien Williams, who continues to work back from a knee injury.

  • Kansas City are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games.
  • Kansas City are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games against Indianapolis.



















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