NFL 2019 Week 8 Writeup
posted Oct 27 2019, 01:21PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 8

*2019 NFL Season Record:

*2019 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills


Vegas Lines:

Line: BUF -1 (-105)

Total : O/U 39.5 (-110)


Key Trends

The Eagles are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games in the early afternoon.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Eagles’ last 7 road games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Bills’ last 5 games vs the Eagles.


Eagles News & Notes

The Eagles are coming off two measuring-stick games, facing Minnesota in Week 6 and division rival Dallas in Week 7, and in both cases Philly was anything but special.

The Eagles were outscored a combined 75-30 the past two games, while looking totally dysfunctional on both sides of the ball. They allowed 849 yards and 49 first downs in those two losses, while offensively they scored three touchdowns but committed seven turnovers.

Philadelphia needs its star players to step up, and that starts with two-time Pro Bowl tight end Zach Ertz. After logging 116 receptions and eight touchdowns last season, Ertz has one score this season and is on pace for 80 catches.

The Bills have allowed the second-fewest yards to tight ends in the NFL (151 total yards), but Ertz needs to elevate his game or the Eagles will likely see their trend of going 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against Buffalo continue.

  • Philadelphia are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
  • Philadelphia are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
  • Philadelphia are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against Buffalo.
  • Philadelphia are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road.


Bills News & Notes

In their 31-21 win over the historically bad Miami Dolphins last week, Buffalo’s offense generated just three field goals through three quarters, as they trailed entering the fourth quarter.

The Bills had no energy, and it took a pair of big-time plays by the defense — specifically star cornerback Tre’Davious White — to turn the game around.

With Miami marching down and threatening to take a two-touchdown fourth-quarter lead, White picked off Miami’s Ryan Fitzpatrick at the two-yard line, and sparked the offense. After the Bills scored to take a three-point lead, White later forced a Preston Williams fumble that gave the Bills a short field, and they scored again to extend the lead to 10 points.

If the Bills are going to keep winning, it’s going to be on the back of their defense. Against a sloppy Eagles offense in Week 8, they have a prime opportunity to improve on their recent string of winning nine of their last 10 home games as the favorite.

  • Buffalo are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games.
  • Buffalo are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games against Philadelphia.




Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans


Vegas Lines:

Line: HOU -6 (-108)

Total : O/U 52 (-110)


Key Trends

Oakland is 2-12 SU in its last 14 road games.

Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a road underdog.

Houston is 23-8 in its last 31 games as a home favorite.


Raiders News & Notes

The Raiders saw quarterback Derek Carr throw an interception and fumble away what looked like a sure touchdown at the goal line, turning a close game into a rout. His counterpart Aaron Rodgers enjoyed his best performance of the season with 429 passing yards and six total touchdowns. Visiting Deshaun Watson and the Texans will not be much easier, especially since they will be fired up too following a loss.

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games.
  • Oakland are 6-12 SU in their last 18 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games on the road.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games this season.


Texans News & Notes

Much like Carr, Watson was not at his best despite previously becoming one of the favorites to win NFL MVP honors with Mahomes injured. The former Clemson star was outplayed by Jacoby Brissett, who led the Colts to the key win with 326 passing yards and four touchdowns. Watson threw for 308 yards and one touchdown, although he also had two interceptions and was sacked three times for 17 yards.

Defensively, the Texans made a move on Monday to improve their secondary by acquiring cornerback Gareon Conley from the Raiders for a third-round draft pick. Conley should help his new team immediately and may be able to dish out inside info on his old team as well.

  • Houston are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games against Oakland.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games at home.
  • Houston are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games this season.




Green Bay Packers @ Kansas City Chiefs


Vegas Lines:

Line: GB -5 (-110)

Total : O/U 47.5 (-110)



Key Trends

The Packers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games at night.

The Chiefs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games after an ATS win.

The Packers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 October road games.


Packers News & Notes

It’s hard to believe, but Aaron Rodgers’ 25-for-31 performance for 429 passing yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions marked the first time he has finished a game with a perfect passer rating. It’s even more impressive that he achieved the feat without his top target, Davante Adams, who missed his third game due to turf toe. Adams remains questionable ahead of this weekend’s matchup.

This is a big spot for running back Aaron Jones. Since rushing for 107 yards and four touchdowns at Dallas three weeks ago, Jones has averaged 47.5 rush yards per game with no rushing scores and a fumble. He did catch one of Rodgers’ five touchdowns against the Raiders. The Chiefs have allowed 147.7 rush yards per game over their past three. Jones needs to get going early to open up the play-action pass for Rodgers. If Jones struggles, like Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman did last Thursday (3.4 YPR), Green Bay may struggle to keep up the 30.6 points per game clip enjoyed over its past five games.

  • Green Bay are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games.
  • Green Bay are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
  • Green Bay are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against Kansas City.


Chiefs News & Notes

Averaging fewer than nine carries per game, McCoy is averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, Damien Williams has only mustered 1.7 YPR this season. Green Bay allows nearly 129 rush yards per game and allowed 155 to the Raiders last weekend. The rush-first focus is quite the overhaul from the usual Chiefs game plan, but if McCoy can dig into his old bag of tricks, it’ll take a ton of pressure off Moore.

Kansas City’s defense truly embraced the “next man up” mantra following Mahomes’ injury. The pass rush sacked Joe Flacco nine times and the secondary held him and the entire Broncos offense without a touchdown. It was a complete script flip from a team that had lost two games in a row and allowed 472 yards and 31 points to the Texans the week prior.

  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of Kansas City's last 15 games.
  • Kansas City are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games against Green Bay.
  • Kansas City are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games at home.



















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