NFL 2019 Week 9 Writeup
posted Nov 03 2019, 12:01PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting


NFL Football - Week 9

*2019 NFL Season Record:

*2019 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins


Vegas Lines:

Line: NYJ -3 (-112)

Total : O/U 42.5 (-108)


Key Trends

The Jets are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents.

The Dolphins are 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in the early afternoon.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Dolphins’ last 6 games.


Jets News & Notes

The Dolphins may be terrible, but have the Jets really been any better? New York fell to 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS on the season and to 2-15 SU and 4-12-1 ATS over its last 17 games with a 29-15 loss on the road to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

Sam Darnold triumphantly returned from his bout with mononucleosis with 338 passing yards and two touchdown passes in a 24-22 win over Dallas, but in the two games since, he’s thrown seven interceptions in two blowout losses.

Le’Veon Bell has only 536 total yards and two touchdowns through his first seven games in a Jets uniform. Whatever hopes and aspirations the Jets came into the 2019 season with are a distant memory at this point.

  • NY Jets are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games.
  • NY Jets are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games.
  • NY Jets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Miami.
  • NY Jets are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against Miami.


Dolphins News & Notes

Up 14-3, defending a third-and-20 play against a quarterback who was clearly struggling through the entire first half, Miami called an all-out blitz with 26 seconds left in the half. Mason Rudolph found a wide-open Diontae Johnson on a short pass that was easily converted into a 45-yard touchdown. This flipped the momentum of the game as the Steelers eventually marched to a 27-14 win at home.

Head coach Brian Flores defended the play as the Dolphins trying to be aggressive, but fans and experts alike are calling this out as a clear indication of tanking. While the ugly loss dropped the Dolphins to 0-7 SU on the season, it did give them their third straight ATS cover as 14-point underdogs.

  • Miami are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games.
  • Miami are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games.
  • Miami are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games at home.




Cleveland Browns @ Denever Broncos


Vegas Lines:

Line: CLE -4 (-108)

Total : O/U 39 (-107)


Key Trends

The Browns are 2-28 SU in their last 30 games as road underdogs.

The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the Broncos’ last 17 games.

The Browns are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games vs the Broncos.


Browns News & Notes

A bye week wasn’t enough for Cleveland to clean up its biggest issues in 2019: turnovers and penalties. The Browns turned the ball over on three consecutive offensive plays in the first quarter of last week’s 27-13 loss to New England, trailing 17-0 before they’d even gained a first down. Meanwhile, Cleveland was flagged a staggering 13 times for 85 yards.

On the season, the Browns lead the NFL in penalties, average penalty yards per game and giveaways per game. When you’re shooting yourself in the foot that often and it’s derailing what were high expectations for your team, dissension in the ranks is sure to follow.

There’s already speculation that first-year head coach Freddie Kitchens will be shown the door at the end of the year, while QB Baker Mayfield and WR Odell Beckham were openly critical of teammates following last week’s loss.

  • Cleveland are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games.
  • Cleveland are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
  • Cleveland are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Denver.


Broncos News & Notes

There’s been a quarterback carousel in Denver since the retirement of Peyton Manning, and pivots are once again the center of the conversation this week for the Broncos.

This time, a change at QB has been necessitated by an injury to Joe Flacco — although some believe Flacco’s post-game diatribe at coaches following last week’s 15-13 loss in Indianapolis has more to do with his absence this week than a herniated disc in his neck. Whatever the reason, Arkansas product Brandon Allen will make his regular-season starting debut against the Browns.

Although Allen hasn’t seen many reps in practice since being acquired on waivers from the Rams at the end of the preseason, Denver coach Vic Fangio is optimistic the former sixth-round pick will pick up the offense quickly. “I think (he’s) as comfortable as he can be,” Fangio told the Denver Post. “I think the guy’s got a little something to him and we’ll devise a plan for him.”

Not that Flacco leaves huge shoes to fill. With Flacco under center, the Broncos scored just 125 points in their first eight games — their fewest in the opening half of a season in 27 years.

  • Denver are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Denver's last 17 games.
  • Denver are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Denver's last 11 games at home.




New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens


Vegas Lines:

Line: NE -3 (-110)

Total : O/U 44.5 (-110)



Key Trends

The Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.

The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdog.

The total has gone OVER in the last three Patriots-Ravens meetings (avg. combined score: 55.67).


Patriots News & Notes

The Patriots turned three Browns turnovers into 14 points and ended up winning by those 14 points. So, this specific New England ATS win makes one wonder if Cleveland is onto something with a run-heavy offensive approach against the stout Patriots defense. Aside from his two costly fumbles, Nick Chubb rushed 20 times for 131 yards (6.6 YPR). If you remove Chubb’s long run of 44 yards, he’s still at 4.6 yards per rush, which is noteworthy ahead of New England’s matchup against Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram.

Perhaps it was the rainy conditions or just the current state of things, but the Patriots offense was far from sharp against the Browns. Tom Brady completed just 20 of 36 passes and New England gained a pedestrian 4.8 yards per play against the Browns’ 21st-ranked defense and one that has allowed 5.6 YPP.

How you approach this Patriots-Ravens wager comes down to your belief that New England can force more turnovers. The Patriots lead the league with 25 forced turnovers and are +17 in turnover differential. However, the Ravens have only turned it over seven times – third-fewest this season. This can’t be a case where you rely on Brady and the offense to earn a road cover.

  • New England are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games.
  • New England are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.
  • New England are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games against Baltimore.


Ravens News & Notes

The Ravens’ five wins this season have come against the Dolphins, Cardinals, Steelers (OT), Bengals and Seahawks. Their wins over the Cardinals, Steelers and Bengals were by an average of just five points. So, you can see how a 5-2 team can be 2-4-1 against the spread.

The once-elite Baltimore defense now shows signs of age and is flawed, while its second-year signal-caller works to shed the label of a one-dimensional quarterback. Baltimore did win at Seattle prior to its bye, but Lamar Jackson didn’t do much to shed the one-dimensional concerns. He finished 9-for-20 passing for 143 yards and has one touchdown pass in his last three games. To be fair, Mark Andrews – the team’s leading receiver – dropped several passes at Seattle that could have changed the optics of Jackson’s stat line and the final score.

The Ravens defense returned a Russell Wilson interception for a touchdown and scooped and scored off a D.K. Metcalf fumble. That’s how the Ravens won 30-16.

On the injury front, wide receiver Marquise Brown has not played since Week 5 and is questionable with a lingering ankle injury.

  • Baltimore are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games.
  • Baltimore are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games against New England.
  • Baltimore are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games at home.



















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