NFL 2019 Week 11 Writeup
posted Nov 17 2019, 09:48AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 11

*2019 NFL Season Record:

*2019 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

 

 

 

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

 

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: BAL -4.5 (-110)

Total: O/U 51.5 (-110)

 

Key Trends

The Texans are 2-10 SU and ATS in their last 12 road games vs teams with winning records.
The Ravens are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games as favorites.
The Texans are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road vs the Ravens.

 

Texans News & Notes

The Texans entered their bye week with four wins in their last five games, but not many players were complaining about the break. Houston hopes to have several key players back from injury this week as tight end Jordan Thomas, wide receiver Will Fuller and safety Tashaun Gipson all resumed practice on Monday. Thomas caught four touchdown passes last year as a rookie, while Fuller has averaged 13.2 yards per catch and caught three touchdowns in seven games this season.
 
Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense rank fourth in the NFL in total yards and rushing yards, and they haven’t been held under 23 points since a Week 4 loss at Carolina. Defensively, Houston matches up nicely against what the Ravens do best, bringing the NFL’s third-best run defense into Baltimore to take on the league’s best ground attack.
  • Houston are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
  • Houston are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Baltimore.
  • Houston are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games against Baltimore.
  • Houston are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.

 

Ravens News & Notes

Last week could have been a flat spot for the Ravens, visiting the winless Bengals following huge wins over the Seahawks and Patriots. But Baltimore didn’t let down at all, jumping out to an early 14-0 lead and cruising to a 49-13 laugher — the Ravens’ fourth double-digit margin of victory this season, and their second win by more than five touchdowns.
 
Lamar Jackson continued to prove his critics wrong by completing all but two of his passes, punctuating the afternoon with a brilliant 47-yard TD run in the third quarter.
 
Baltimore’s defense may not quite be the dominant unit it used to be, but it’s still finding ways to make differences in games. The Ravens scored a pair of defensive TDs last week, returning both an interception and a fumble to the house, and the defense has recorded five majors in its last three outings.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games.
  • Baltimore are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games against Houston.
  • Baltimore are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games at home.

 

 

 

New England Patriots @ Philadelphia Eagles

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: NE -4.5 (-110)

Total: O/U 44.5 (-110)

 

Key Trends

The Patriots are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games after an ATS loss.
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Eagles’ last 17 home games (avg. combined score: 39.24).
The Eagles are 6-17 SU in their last 23 games as home underdogs.

 

 

Patriots News & Notes

After jumping out to an 8-0 start behind the league’s most dominant defense, the Patriots were mauled by Baltimore 37-20 in Week 9, suffering their first loss of the season and having two weeks to simmer on it as their bye week came in Week 10.
 
It was the first time New England allowed more than 14 points all season, and the defense was gashed for 210 yards on the ground. The loss also marked the second straight game in which the Patriots allowed more than five yards per rushing attempt.
 
The Patriots now face an Eagles offense that has really ramped up their rushing game the past few weeks, but New England is 4-1 ATS the last five seasons in games following a bye. Expect Bill Belichick’s crew to be ready to go.
  • New England are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of New England's last 20 games.
  • New England are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games.
  • New England are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against Philadelphia.

Eagles News & Notes

The Eagles also had their bye last week, but they went into it on a positive note, beating the Chicago Bears 22-14.
 
The win was Philadelphia’s second in a row, and following Dallas’ Week 10 loss, they are now tied for first in the NFC East. While the Eagles have consistently established a strong running game with the duo of Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders, the aerial attack still hasn’t exploded since deep threat DeSean Jackson went down for the year with an injury.
 
The one positive for Philadelphia, however, was tight end Zach Ertz finally having a big performance. After a disappointing first half of the year, Ertz logged nine catches on a team-high 11 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown. He’ll be in tough against a Patriots defense that allows the third-fewest catches and yards to tight ends this season.
  • Philadelphia are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • Philadelphia are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games against New England.
  • Philadelphia are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home.

 

 

 

Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams

 

8:20

Vegas Lines:

Line: LAR -6 (-108)

Total: O/U 40 (-110)

 

 

Key Trends

The Bears are 3-15 SU in their last 18 games as road underdogs.
The Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as favorite.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of the Bears’ last 11 games vs the NFC.

 

Bears News & Notes

It’s hard to glean too much useful betting information from Chicago’s 20-13 win over the Lions. Or is it?
 
Yes, the Lions were without Matthew Stafford. Try as he might, backup Jeff Driskel completed just 27 of 46 passes for 269 yards and a touchdown. However, on top of a team-high 37 rushing yards, Driskel engineered two fourth-quarter drives that came up 25 yards short of tying the game against one of the league’s top defenses.
 
Mitch Trubisky faced one of the league’s worst defenses and one of only three that allows more than 400 yards per game. Even with the friendly matchup, Trubisky could only muster 173 passing yards, the Bears averaged 3.4 yards per rush attempt and converted two of 12 on third down.
 
So, perhaps we did learn something and that’s even in victory, the Bears are who we thought they were. Chicago’s offense is averaging 19.2 points per game over its past five contests and shows few signs that head coach Matt Nagy has the solution hidden in his playbook.
 
Trubisky got hit seven times and sacked five times by a Lions pass rush averaging 2.1 sacks per game. This is sub-optimal when Chicago’s O-line is about to face Aaron Donald, Dante Fowler and a Rams pass rush averaging 4.3 sacks per game over the past three contests.
 
Chicago will once again lean on its rush defense to slow down Todd Gurley, who averaged 6.1 yards per rush against the Steelers. The Bears allow the fourth-fewest yards per rush at 3.7 yards per pop.
 
On the injury front, linebacker Danny Trevathan suffered a gnarly elbow injury that will take some time to heal.
  • Chicago are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Chicago's last 14 games.
  • Chicago are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
  • Chicago are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against LA Rams.

 

Rams News & Notes

Where to begin with a bad loss at Pittsburgh fresh off a bye week?
 
The Rams offense did not score a touchdown, was 1-for-14 on third down, only reached the red zone once, turned the ball over four times, allowed nine hits and four sacks of Jared Goff and the team committed 10 penalties for 95 yards. Other than that, Sean McVay, how was the play?
 
Prior to their Week 9 bye, Los Angeles beat up the Falcons and Rams by a combined score of 61-20 as Cooper Kupp’s Comeback Player of the Year odds skyrocketed. Against Pittsburgh, Kupp was held without a catch.
 
Despite the Week 10 setback at Pittsburgh, recent trends suggest a Week 11 bounce-back against an inferior offense:
 
* The Rams are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
* The Rams are 10-3 SU in their last 13 home games.
* The Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as favorite.
* The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after an ATS loss.
 
After suffering his second concussion of the season, wide receiver Brandin Cooks has been ruled out again.
  • LA Rams are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams' last 5 games.
  • LA Rams are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Rams' last 12 games against Chicago.

 

 

 

 

 

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Risky Picks
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