NFL 2019 Week 12 Writeup
posted Nov 24 2019, 12:10PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 12

*2019 NFL Season Record:

*2019 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

 

 

 

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles

 

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: SEA -2 (-105)

Total: O/U 45.5 (-110)

 

Key Trends

The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

The Seahawks are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.

The Eagles are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last 4 games vs the Seahawks (avg. losing margin: 13.0).

 

Seahawks News & Notes

Seattle entered its bye week on a high note, winning a thrilling overtime game in San Francisco to hand the 49ers their first loss of the season.

As seems to be the case with the Seahawks, they will only go as far as MVP candidate Russell Wilson will take them. He leads the NFL with 23 touchdown passes (against just two interceptions) and a 114.9 passer rating, and the Seahawks have scored at least 27 points in eight of their 10 games.

With star receiver Tyler Lockett questionable for Sunday’s game following a leg injury in Week 10, Wilson may need to shoulder the load even more if they want to win this week — and hang in the NFC West divisional race.

Thankfully, Seattle faces an Eagles defense that has been weak defending the pass, and historically the Seahawks have strong offensive showings following a bye: the OVER has hit in 14 of Seattle’s last 19 games after a bye week.

  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of Seattle's last 19 games.
  • Seattle are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
  • Seattle are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Philadelphia.
  • Seattle are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games against Philadelphia.

 

Eagles News & Notes

There are five teams in the NFC with at least eight wins, including both of the current wild-card teams. Since the Eagles have only five wins, following their 17-10 loss to New England last week, their chances of catching those clubs are very slim.

The silver lining, however, is that they’re only one game behind Dallas in the race for the NFC East division title and the automatic playoff berth that comes with it. So Philadelphia is still in the thick of a playoff race, and a win this Sunday would set up the Eagles well — they only face one team with a winning record the rest of the season.

In order to pull off this big home win, the Eagles will need Carson Wentz and the dormant passing game to awaken. They’ve topped 227 passing yards just once in their past seven games, but perhaps a matchup against Seattle’s 22nd-ranked defense can get them into gear.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games against Seattle.
  • Philadelphia are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games at home.
  • Philadelphia are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle.

 

 

 

Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: NE -5.5 (-108)

Total: O/U 44 (-107)

 

Key Trends

The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Cowboys’ last 13 games.

The Patriots are 20-0 SU in their last 20 games at home.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the Cowboys’ last 8 games vs the Patriots.

 

 

Patriots News & Notes

The Cowboys continued to fatten up against mediocre opposition last week in Detroit, beating the Matthew Stafford-less Lions 35-27 to improve to 5-1 ATS this season when facing opponents below .500.

Against teams above .500, however, Dallas hasn’t been nearly as successful lately. In fact, the Cowboys are on an 0-6 ATS slide against foes with winning records. Two weeks ago, they lost at home as 3.5-point favorites over the Vikings, and they’ve also lost outright as chalk against the Packers and Saints.

In order to turn that trend around this weekend vs the Pats, the Cowboys would be best served to turn around another alarming trend: slow starts. Dallas has scored a first-quarter touchdown in just one of its last seven games, while the Cowboys D ranks near the bottom of the league in first-quarter points allowed. Just two plays into last week’s game, Ezekiel Elliott fumbled on the Dallas 28-yard line, setting up a Lions touchdown five plays later.

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas' last 6 games.
  • Dallas are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games.
  • Dallas are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against New England.
  • Dallas are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against New England.

Eagles News & Notes

For a quarterback of a 9-1 team, Tom Brady wasn’t too happy following last week’s 17-10 victory in Philadelphia. Brady and the Patriots offense sputtered for the second game in a row, managing just 19 first downs and 298 total yards against the Eagles.

New England’s only touchdown last week came on a 15-yard trick pass play from Julian Edelman to Phillip Dorsett, and the Patriots settled for field goals on two of their three red-zone trips. New England has now been held to 20 points or less in three of its last seven games.

“Up and down. That’s what it looks like to me. We could probably do everything better,” said Brady, who has not thrown a touchdown pass in three of the Pats’ 10 games this season.

Already thin at receiver and tight end, the Patriots may be without Dorsett this week after the receiver left last week’s game with a head injury. The run game hasn’t done much to help Brady lately, either, collecting just 74 yards in each of its last two outings.

New England has suddenly become an UNDER team, staying below the total in seven of its last 10 games overall.

  • New England are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 11 games.
  • New England are 14-1 SU in their last 15 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 8 games against Dallas.

 

 

 

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers

 

8:20

Vegas Lines:

Line: SF -3 (-110)

Total: O/U 47.5 (-112)

 

 

Key Trends

The Packers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games at night.

The total has gone OVER in 6 of the 49ers’ last 8 night games.

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of the Packers’ last 12 games after a bye.

 

Packers News & Notes

Since losing to the Eagles in the last week of September, the Packers are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread. They won those five games by an average margin of 8.8 points. Remarkably, the Packers have not one notable injury ahead of this huge matchup.

Green Bay has converted 68.57 percent of its red-zone trips into touchdowns this season – the second-best rate in the NFL – and that rate has improved to 77.78 percent over its past three games. The Packers have also improved on third downs, converting 43.75 percent over their past three games, up from 37.17 percent on the season.

One area of concern that potential 49ers backers can lean on is that the Packers defense still allows 6.0 yards per play this season and 6.1 YPP over their past three games.

  • Green Bay are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • Green Bay are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
  • Green Bay are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against San Francisco.
  • Green Bay are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games against San Francisco.

 

49ers News & Notes

The Niners are a prime example as to why you do NOT want a Week 4 bye. Eight weeks later, San Francisco is obviously gassed as evidenced by their three-game defensive stat splits when compared to season-to-date:

It’s one thing to struggle against the Seahawks, but two of the Niners’ last three games came against the Cardinals. The defense was dealt more bad news when defensive end Dee Ford left last Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury that is expected to cost him some time.

Offensively, Jimmy Garoppolo needs starting tight end George Kittle to return from knee and ankle injuries that have caused him to miss the past two games. Kittle, who accounts for 22 percent of San Francisco’s pass offense, is questionable against the Packers. You may remember, Kittle injured his knee early in the first Cardinals game, but later returned to finish the game. For him to miss the past two games, one wonders if his original return was worth the long-term pain.

Narrator: it was not.

Running back Matt Breida is also questionable for Sunday’s tilt as he recovers from an ankle injury and kicker Robbie Gould remained sidelined against the Cardinals with a quad injury. Chase McLaughlin connected on a 43-yard field goal and three extra points against the Cardinals last Sunday.

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games.
  • San Francisco are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games against Green Bay.
  • San Francisco are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.

 

 

 

 

 

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Risky Picks
Heavy interest on daring parlay bets with (straight up, spread and o/u) my beer money. Follow My picks daily to see if I achieve gambling alcoholism....





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