NFL 2019 Week 13 Writeup
posted Dec 01 2019, 12:23PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 13

*2019 NFL Season Record:

*2019 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM
Line: TEN -1 (-108)
Total: O/U 42 (-110)
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Titans’ last 14 road games vs the Colts.
The Colts are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games after consecutive ATS wins.
The Titans are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last 5 games.
Titans News & Notes
Despite changing their starting quarterback midseason, the Titans have won four of their last five games and are in the thick of the AFC South divisional race, one game behind division-leading Houston and tied with Indianapolis, their opponent this Sunday.
The improved quarterback play from Ryan Tannehill has helped the offense in every way, but there’s been no bigger impact than how he has helped running back Derrick Henry explode into an unstoppable force.
Henry ran for 159 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 42-20 win over Jacksonville. He’s now run for 347 yards and two touchdowns over his last two games, he’s reached the end zone twice in three straight games and he’s fourth in the NFL in rushing yards.
These two teams faced off in Week 2, with the Titans losing 19-17. Henry had 82 yards on 15 carries in that game, but he will need to do even better against the NFL’s ninth-ranked rushing defense if the Titans want to stay within a game of the division … and break their 1-7 ATS slump in their last eight road games against the Colts.
  • Tennessee are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games.
  • Tennessee are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
  • Tennessee are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against Indianapolis.
Colts News & Notes
Indianapolis had a big test on Thursday Night Football in Week 12, facing the Houston Texans with first place in the division on the line.
In the absence of star running back Marlon Mack due to injury, backup Jonathan Williams rushed for 104 yards and a touchdown, but it wasn’t enough as the Colts lost 20-17.
Even with Mack ruled out for Week 13, the Colts are still a dominant rushing team, currently third in the NFL. But what’s been holding Indianapolis back has been the passing game’s inability to create big plays downfield. The Colts have topped 200 passing yards just once in their last seven games, while failing to top that number in five straight.
The Colts got star receiver T.Y. Hilton back after a three-week absence, but he managed just three catches for 18 yards. He’ll need to deliver more against Tennessee in a must-win divisional game, especially since they lost tight end Eric Ebron, who was placed on the IR due to an ankle injury.
  • Indianapolis are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis' last 6 games against Tennessee.
  • Indianapolis are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games at home.
  • Indianapolis are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against Tennessee.
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
4:25 PM
Line: KC -11 (-110)
Total: O/U 49.5 (-107)
Oakland is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games.
Oakland is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last 7 divisional road games.
Kansas City is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 divisional home games.
Oakland News & Notes
The Raiders turned in a dud of a performance in another must-win situation vs the Jets, possibly getting caught looking ahead to this showdown with the Chiefs. Regardless, they still have a shot to redeem themselves, but it will be a very difficult task.
Oakland has not won at Kansas City since 2012, according to the Odds Shark NFL database, going 0-6 straight up and 1-5 against the spread in six games since then. The UNDER has also gone 5-1 during that stretch, so scoring more is the first step toward trying to pull off the upset.
Quarterback Derek Carr should be very motivated after getting benched in the third quarter at New York, but rookie running back Josh Jacobs can play a bigger role vs the Chiefs defense. Jacobs had just 34 yards on 10 carries last week, and KC is one of the worst against the run.
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games.
  • Oakland are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against Kansas City.
  • Oakland are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against Kansas City.
  • Oakland are 2-14 SU in their last 16 games on the road.
Kansas City News & Notes
The Chiefs should feel rejuvenated following their 24-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Mexico City. They enjoyed a week off after that Monday Night Football game, which can only help quarterback Patrick Mahomes and his injured knee.
Mahomes led the team in rushing against the Chargers with 59 yards but had just 182 passing, as wide receiver Tyreek Hill left early with a hamstring injury. Hill’s status is key, so make sure to monitor the injury report before wagering on this game.
Kansas City’s defense is still vulnerable and could have trouble containing Jacobs, meaning Mahomes may look to run up the score early on through the air like he did in Week 2 when he threw four touchdown passes in the second quarter.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of Kansas City's last 19 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games against Oakland.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home.
  • Kansas City are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland.
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
8:20 PM
Line: NE -3 (-110)
Total: O/U 46.5 (-109)
The Texans are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last 6 games as home underdogs.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Patriots’ last 6 road games (avg. combined score: 37.67).
The Patriots are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games.
New England News & Notes
While Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are the leaders of the 10-1 Patriots, the Pats are winning with defense — and the leader of that unit is cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
The Patriots are allowing just 10.6 points and 158 passing yards per game and lead the NFL in turnovers forced, and it starts with Gilmore, who has risen to be the NFL’s premier shutdown cornerback.
His latest victim was Dallas receiver Amari Cooper. Gilmore shadowed Cooper on 26 of the 30 routes he ran last week and held him without a catch on two targets. In fact, Gilmore actually out-caught Cooper, as he had an interception in the 13-9 victory.
Gilmore has made a point to shut down the opposing team’s top receiver all season, and he’ll be tested again this week facing Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins. If he can successfully shut down another elite wideout, it will go a long way to helping the Patriots improve on their 8-2 ATS record over their last 10 games against the Texans.
  • New England are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games.
  • New England are 15-1 SU in their last 16 games.
  • New England are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against Houston.

Houston News & Notes
The Texans jumped back into sole possession of first place in the AFC South with a 20-17 win over Indianapolis last Thursday night, and it came courtesy of big nights from their top receivers.
DeAndre Hopkins had six catches for 94 yards and two touchdowns, his first multi-touchdown game since Week 1, while Will Fuller V had seven catches for 140 yards in his first action since Week 7.
Having two receivers capable of putting up big numbers will be key for Houston; the Patriots are 7-1 SU in their last eight prime-time games, while Houston has won only seven of its last 32 games ATS in prime time. And with Hopkins likely to be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore, the Texans will need another huge game from Fuller if they want to hang around with New England.
  • Houston are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games.
  • Houston are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 11 games against New England.


















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