NFL 2019 Week 14 Writeup
posted Dec 08 2019, 01:13PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 14

*2019 NFL Season Record:

*2019 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM
Line: BAL -6 (-110)
Total: O/U 44 (-110)
Baltimore is 8-0 SU in its last 8 games, winning by an average of 19 points.
Baltimore is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 road games.
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games as a home underdog.
Ravens News & Notes
The Ravens have never had the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, so this is unfamiliar territory for them with only four games remaining. This is also a surprisingly tough matchup for them at this point of the year considering the Bills rank third in the NFL in total defense, surrendering just 300.1 yards per game.
The good news for Baltimore is that Buffalo is still giving up 104.3 rushing yards per game, which should help the league’s top-ranked run offense, averaging nearly twice that amount.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson continued his MVP campaign with a team-high 101 rushing yards on 16 carries and one touchdown in a 20-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers last week even though the team failed to cover the spread as a 6-point home favorite.
Jackson is now only 23 yards away from breaking the 1,000-yard rushing mark, and he has been averaging an amazing 7.0 yards per carry with seven scores on the ground.
  • Baltimore are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • Baltimore are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games.
  • Baltimore are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against Buffalo.
  • Baltimore are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games on the road.
Bills News & Notes
Buffalo is one game behind New England for the lead in the AFC East and close to locking up the No. 1 wild-card spot in the AFC at the very least.
The Bills have quietly won three games in a row since losing 19-16 to the Cleveland Browns as 3-point road underdogs almost a month ago, and they will have the added benefit of extra rest following a 26-15 victory against the Dallas Cowboys as 6.5-point road dogs on Thanksgiving.
The play of Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has clearly been the difference in the team’s wins, completing 60 percent of his passes each time. In all three losses for the Bills, Allen has failed to top 53.7 percent. It also helps that he has not been turning over the ball, with one interception in the last seven games.
  • Buffalo are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games.
  • Buffalo are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games against Baltimore.
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints
1:00 PM
Line: NO -2 (-110)
Total: O/U 44.5 (-108)
The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as road underdogs.
The Saints are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
The Saints are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as home favorites.
49ers News & Notes
Two-thirds of the way through a three-game stretch vs division leaders, the 49ers need to feel pretty good about how their defense stacks up. San Fran followed up a 37-8 dismantling of Green Bay in Week 12 with a hard-fought 20-17 defeat last week at Baltimore, losing on a 49-yard field goal on the game’s final play.
The Niners defense lived up to its No. 1 ranking, holding Lamar Jackson to just 206 total yards and forcing the first fumble of the season from the Ravens’ phenom quarterback. One of Baltimore’s two touchdowns came on a short field after a Jimmy Garoppolo fumble, and the last-second field goal accounted for the Ravens’ only points in the second half.
Unfortunately, the loss took its toll on 49ers defenders Jaquiski Tartt, D.J. Jones, Richard Sherman and Jullian Taylor, all of whom are day to day after suffering injuries. Also, San Francisco’s offense continues to struggle on the road, scoring less than 21 points for the third time in the last four games.
Other than a career-high 146 rushing yards from Raheem Mostert, the 49ers gained just 185 yards of offense on the day, and only 157 through the air. They also failed to convert a fourth-and-one in the fourth quarter, setting up Baltimore’s winning drive.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games.
  • San Francisco are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games.
  • San Francisco are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games against New Orleans.
  • San Francisco are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games against New Orleans.
Saints News & Notes
The Saints have already locked up first place in the NFC South, but New Orleans still has plenty to play for. A win over San Francisco would give the Saints the top spot in the NFC and potential home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs, something veteran QB Drew Brees has been sure to remind his teammates of since New Orleans’ 26-18 win over Atlanta last Thursday.
“There’s still a lot to be desired,” said Brees, who has thrown seven touchdowns and just one interception in four games since returning from a midseason thumb injury.
Like the 49ers, much of New Orleans’ best work this year has come on the defensive side of the ball. The Saints recorded nine sacks in their win at Atlanta — four of them coming from Cameron Jordan — as they held an opponent under 20 points for the fifth time in their last nine.
  • New Orleans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • New Orleans are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans' last 6 games against San Francisco.
  • New Orleans are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home.
Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots
4:25 PM
Line: NE -3 (-108)
Total: O/U -49 (-108)
The Chiefs are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog.
The Patriots are 21-0 SU and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games at home.
The Patriots are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after consecutive ATS losses.
Chiefs News & Notes
With all the talk of the Ravens and MVP favorite Lamar Jackson, as well as the aforementioned Patriots and their dominant defense, the NFL seems to forget that the Chiefs had the best record in the NFL last year … and the MVP in Patrick Mahomes.
To provide a friendly little reminder to the league in Week 13, the Chiefs absolutely dismantled the Oakland Raiders 40-9 at Arrowhead Stadium, thoroughly dominating in all three facets of the game.
The Chiefs forced two interceptions, forced a fumble on a kick return, scored four offensive touchdowns and didn’t commit a penalty or a turnover. While the offensive stats weren’t among the Chiefs’ most memorable, it’s the mistake-free football that will matter against a Patriots defense that leads the NFL in turnovers and turnover differential.
If Kansas City can play a clean game, the Chiefs just might be able to get their second SU win in their last nine games at New England.
  • Kansas City are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of Kansas City's last 20 games.
  • Kansas City are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games.
  • Kansas City are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games against New England.
Patriots News & Notes
While the score may look like a close game, the reality is New England’s 28-22 loss to Houston last week on Sunday Night Football creates a lot of concern within the Patriots organization.
The offense was terribly lackluster, as quarterback Tom Brady was just 7-for-19 for 82 yards and an interception at halftime. New England actually trailed 28-9 late in the fourth quarter, with two garbage-time touchdowns making the score respectable.
This is the fourth straight disappointing offensive game for the Patriots, but even more concerning was their defense having an uncharacteristically pedestrian performance. They gave up four passing touchdowns — three by Deshaun Watson and one to Deshaun Watson — while failing to force a turnover for the first game all season.
The UNDER has hit in eight of New England’s 12 games this season. If the Pats want to win against the Chiefs this Sunday, their best bet is to have another low-scoring game — and not get into a track me
  • New England are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England's last 13 games.
  • New England are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games against Kansas City.


















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