NFL 2019 Week 15 Writeup
posted Dec 15 2019, 12:48PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 15

*2019 NFL Season Record:

*2019 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
1:00 PM
Line: GB -4 (-110)
Total: O/U 41 (-110)

The Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games.

The Packers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs divisional opponents.

The Bears are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games vs the Packers.


Bears News & Notes

The Bears have to win out and still get some help in order to make the playoffs. A long shot, yes, but not as unrealistic as it was a few weeks ago when the Bears were 3-5. Chicago has won four of five since then, and it’s the way the Bears have won that might have fans believing again in the Windy City.

Last week against Dallas, quarterback Mitch Trubisky resembled his 2018 form, throwing for 244 yards and three TDs while adding 63 yards and a major on the ground. It’s the running in particular that had been lacking this year for the Bears’ third-year pivot, who had rushed for only 26 yards on eight attempts in Chicago’s first 12 games.

Chicago leans heavily on its defense in division games, having gone UNDER in six of its last seven contests against NFC North rivals. That stop unit took a major hit last week with a season-ending injury to linebacker Roquan Smith, the team’s leading tackler.

However, that loss will be tempered a bit by the return of Pro Bowl defensive lineman Akiem Hicks, who is expected to come off injured reserve and make his first appearance since Week 5.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games.
  • Green Bay are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 12 games against Chicago.
  • Green Bay are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home.
Packers News & Notes
If there’s been anything consistent about the Packers offense this season, it’s been its inconsistency. Coming off a 31-point performance in its previous game against the Giants, Green Bay’s attack generated only 18 first downs and 341 total yards in a 20-15 win over the visiting Redskins.

Aaron Rodgers was held to 195 yards through the air as the Pack scored 20 points or less for the third time in their last five games. Rodgers, however, preferred to focus on the positive of a strong outing by running back Aaron Jones, who had 192 yards from scrimmage. “We’ve got to clean some ... stuff up, but I wouldn’t mind winning ugly all the way to the Super Bowl,” Rodgers told reporters.

There are reasons for optimism about a Packers’ cover here as well, however. Green Bay has tended to follow up poor performances with strong ones, going 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.

Meanwhile, Green Bay’s defense continues to play well at home, allowing more than 24 points just once this season at Lambeau Field. Chicago has been held under 20 points in four of its last five visits to Wisconsin.

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games.
  • Green Bay are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 12 games against Chicago.
  • Green Bay are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home.
Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys
4:025 PM
Line: LAR -1 (-109)
Total: O/U 48.5 (-110)

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the Rams’ last 8 games.

The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after consecutive ATS losses.

The Rams are 9-0 SU in their last 9 games on the road vs teams with losing records.


Rams News & Notes

Don’t write off the Rams just yet. Since suffering a humiliating 45-6 loss at home to the Ravens on Monday Night Football in Week 12, Los Angeles has responded by outscoring opponents 62-19 in its last two games. On Sunday, the Rams jumped out to a 21-3 first-half lead and coasted to a 28-12 win over the Seahawks, keeping MVP hopeful Russell Wilson out of the end zone and allowing just 16 first downs.

“I’ve really been impressed with this team’s mental toughness, their ability to stick together,” Rams head coach Sean McVay told reporters afterward. “We’ll see if we can keep this thing rolling.”

For LA to keep its faint playoff hopes alive, the Rams will want to keep giving the ball to Todd Gurley. The 2017 NFL Offensive Player of the Year has seen fewer touches since suffering a knee injury late in the 2018 campaign, but McVay and the Rams have featured him more recently — and it’s paying dividends.

Gurley had 113 total yards on 27 touches in the victory over Seattle and used a devastating stiff arm on a fourth-quarter touchdown run as the Rams won for the third straight game in which he touched the ball at least 20 times. A greater impetus on the ground game may also help explain how LA has gone UNDER in seven of its last eight games.

  • LA Rams are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Rams' last 8 games.
  • LA Rams are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
  • LA Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road.
Cowboys News & Notes

The NFL’s top-ranked offense has looked anything but over the past three weeks, averaging 16 points per game in losses to the Patriots, Bills and Bears. Part of the slump could be explained by facing a trio of elite defenses, but Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott wasn’t hiding his concerns after last Thursday’s loss to the Bears.

“I can’t put a finger on it. We have the skill level, we have the players, we have the chemistry … but we’re not playing as a team,” he told reporters.

Kicker Brett Maher was the first casualty of the Cowboys’ recent woes, getting cut on Monday — minutes after visiting a children’s hospital in the Dallas area. Maher, who had missed 10 kicks in 13 games this season, will be replaced by Kai Forbath, who was already cut loose this year by the Patriots and is suiting up for his fifth team in nine years.

  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Dallas' last 16 games.
  • Dallas are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas' last 6 games against LA Rams.
  • Dallas are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games at home.
Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers
4:25 PM
Line: PIT -1 (-112)
Total: O/U -37 (-108)

The Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.

The total has gone UNDER in the Steelers’ last five games (avg. combined score: 31.2).

The Bills are 0-5 SU in their last 5 night games.


Bills News & Notes

If you wanted to make a case that the Bills’ 9-4 record requires a strength of schedule asterisk, you’d have plenty of evidence to defend the argument. Buffalo has faced only three teams with winning records heading into Week 15. They lost to the Patriots and Ravens, while picking up a 14-7 win at Tennessee back in early October.

Heading into the regular season, it was suspected that Josh Allen’s offense was going to struggle to score points. So, their 21.1 points per game average may be four or more points above the projected total. However, Baltimore’s defense really locked down on the Bills last Sunday and presents a blueprint for the Steelers’ elite defense to follow this weekend.

Stat Category BUF Offense vs BAL PIT DEF All. Per Game (Rank)
Yards Per Play 3.1 4.8 (3rd)
Pass Yards 105 209.8 (5th)
Rush Yards 104 101.2 (9th)
3rd Down Conversions 4-17 (23.5%) 35.98% (10th)
Red Zone Conversions 1-3 (33%) 51.28% (9th)

Buffalo’s offense posted some of the least efficient numbers of the season against Baltimore and now faces a Steelers defense that ranks in the top 10 in all of those stat categories.

There’s a reason the total opened at 37 and isn’t expected to move much, and these stats illustrate that reason. It’s going to be a defensive slog where first downs and field goals will be worthy of celebration. The fact that Josh Allen has nearly two seasons of experience will be vital.

Allen is 5-2 SU and 6-0-1 ATS with UNDERS in six of the Bills’ last seven road games dating back to last December.

  • Buffalo are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games.
  • Buffalo are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games.
  • Buffalo are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games against Pittsburgh.
Steelers News & Notes

If you miss the game-managing talents of Alex Smith, may I interest you in Devlin “Duck” Hodges ahead of a must-win, prime-time matchup? To be fair, the Steelers are 3-0 SU and ATS in Hodges’ three starts this season, but his impact is overshadowed by the elite play of the Steelers defense. In those starts, Hodges is averaging 165 pass yards per game with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Of the 67 points scored during his three starts, Pittsburgh’s defense and special teams has accounted for 35 (52.2%).

Hodges’ offense now faces a Bills defense that looks like this:

Bills Stat Category Per Game Average League Rank
Opp. Yards Per Play 4.8 4th
Opp. Rush Yards Per Game 105.3 14th
Opp. Pass Yards Per Game 191.5 3rd
Opp. 3rd Down Conversion Rate 34.5% 6th
Opp. Red Zone Attempts Per Game 2.6 4th (fewest)

As you digest those stats that heavily favor the Bills defense in a head-to-head matchup with Hodges, we wait to hear if both running back James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster return from injury. Conner hasn’t played in a month due to a nagging shoulder injury, while Smith-Schuster is expected to return from a concussion suffered in the first Browns game back on November 14. However, as one likely returns, tight end Vance McDonald is questionable with a concussion sustained during the Cardinals game.

  • Pittsburgh are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games.
  • Pittsburgh are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 12 games against Buffalo.


















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