NFL 2021 Playoffs - Championship Sunday
posted Jan 24 2021, 10:50AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Playoffs - Championship Sunday

*2020 NFL Season Record:

*2020 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

3:05 PM

KC -3 (-113)

O/U  57 (-108)


The Chiefs are 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games.

The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

The Chiefs are 24-2 SU in their last 26 games.


Buffalo News & Notes

The 17 points that the Bills scored in their divisional-round win over the Baltimore Ravens tied for their second-fewest of the season. That matched the Bills’ output in a 26-17 loss to the Chiefs on October 19, just a week after they mustered only 16 against the Tennessee Titans.

Despite the lack of points, there was no dropoff for Bills star receiver Stefon Diggs. Diggs had eight receptions for 106 yards and a touchdown and should be the primary target for quarterback Josh Allen once again in this matchup.

Buffalo passes the ball more than almost any team (Allen ranked fifth in attempts this season) and ran the ball just 16 times last week. The Chiefs could be without starting corner Bashaud Breeland, so look for the Bills to continue to attack through the air.

On defense, the Bills will hope their 13th-ranked pass defense can hold up against the Chiefs’ top-ranked aerial attack. The three points allowed to Baltimore last week was the fewest of the season for Buffalo.


Buffalo are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

The total has gone OVER in 12 of Buffalo's last 18 games.

Buffalo are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games.

Buffalo are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Kansas City.


Kansas City News & Notes

The status of superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes for this game has massive real-life and betting implications. Chiefs coach Andy Reid confirmed Monday that Mahomes remains in concussion protocol and they will “see how he does the next couple days.” Bettors will need to monitor the situation closely.

Chad Henne would serve as the replacement if Mahomes can’t play. Henne, an 11-year veteran, has mostly served as a backup in his career.

The good news for the Chiefs is they could get back starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire and wide receiver Sammy Watkins this week. Both are listed as questionable early in the week and would be big boosts for an already potent offense. Edwards-Helaire rushed for 161 yards in the first game between these teams back in Week 6.

The Chiefs will hope to repeat their success on defense from that Week 6 matchup. Kansas City held the Bills to just 17 points in that game and Josh Allen had just 122 passing yards.


Kansas City are 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games.

Kansas City are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games against Buffalo.

Kansas City are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at home.



Tampa Bay Buccanears @ Green Bay Packers

6:40 PM

NO -3.5 (-113)

O/U 52 (-103)


Tampa Bay is 7-0 SU in its last 7 road games.

Green Bay is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 playoff games.

Tampa Bay is 1-15 SU in its last 16 road games vs Green Bay.


Tampa Bay News & Notes

The Bucs have thrived away from home all year, winning their last seven road games by an average of 16 points. However, Lambeau Field has been a house of horrors over the years for the Bucs, who used to play there every season when they were part of the NFC Central. Tampa Bay has lost 15 of its last 16 trips to Green Bay, with the lone victory during that span coming in 2005 in Week 3 – before the temperatures start to dip in Wisconsin.

Of course, Brady is no stranger to cold-weather playoff games. Twelve of his 13 career AFC championship game appearances have come in frigid conditions in Foxborough, Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Denver. Brady has thrown for at least 348 yards in four of his last five games, although he was limited to 199 passing yards in last week’s 30-20 win over the Saints.

Tampa Bay’s defense regularly set Brady up with short fields in the win over New Orleans, recording three turnovers in Saints territory. The Bucs also held New Orleans star receiver Michael Thomas without a catch, a promising sign as they prepare to face NFL touchdown receptions leader Davante Adams.

Adams was held to 60 yards on six receptions and zero scores in Tampa Bay’s win over the Packers earlier this year, when he was the target on two Rodgers interceptions that turned the game in the Buccaneers’ favor.


Tampa Bay are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.

Tampa Bay are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.

Tampa Bay are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Green Bay.

Tampa Bay are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games on the road.



Green Bay News & Notes

Not even the best defense in the league could slow down Green Bay’s top-rated offense last week in the Packs’ 32-18 win over the Rams. Green Bay’s 484 yards were nearly 100 more than LA had allowed in a game all year, the Packers had two plays of more than 50 yards and Green Bay became just the third team in the last 20 postseasons to score on its first five possessions.

Although Rodgers continues to play at an MVP level, the Packers aren’t completely reliant on their star quarterback. Green Bay ran for 188 yards against LA, the third time in four games that the Pack have gained that many yards on the ground.

That support from the rushing game has allowed Rodgers to pick his spots rather than forcing throws into coverage. Rodgers has thrown 21 touchdown passes and just one interception in his last seven games despite failing to eclipse the 300-yard mark in any of those contests.

If the Packers can limit turnovers once again this week, you’ve got to like their chances against a Bucs defense that thrived on interceptions in its win over the Saints. Green Bay is 11-0 SU this season when it doesn’t commit a turnover, but just 3-3 (including the loss at Tampa Bay) when it gives the ball away at least once.


Green Bay are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.

Green Bay are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games against Tampa Bay.

Green Bay are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games at home.




















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