NFL 2021 Week 1 Writeup
posted Sep 12 2021, 11:00AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 1

September 12, 2021


*2021 NFL Season Record:

*2021 NFL Season/Playoffs Record:

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills

1:00 PM

BUF -6 (-108)

O/U  48 (-108)


The UNDER is 17-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 22 games.
Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games.
Buffalo is 7-0 SU in its last seven home games.

Pittsburgh News & Notes

The Steelers will have almost an entirely new offensive line in 2021. Longtime center Maurkice Pouncey retired in the offseason and Pittsburgh lost four of its five starters from last year. 

The Steelers drafted Alabama running back Najee Harris with their first pick in the draft and then announced a renewed commitment to running the football. Harris is listed as a mid-tier running back this week on most DFS sites and might be worthy of consideration in your lineup.

TJ Watt has not practiced with the Steelers so far this year. Watt has been holding out while the two sides try to negotiate a long-term contract. If a deal isn’t finalized soon, last year’s NFL sack leader is in danger of not playing in Week 1.

Pittsburgh does have a very deep receiving corps and welcomes back Ben Roethlisberger for his 18th season with the team. If you believe that Big Ben is still an elite-level quarterback, then the Steelers team total of 21.5 might be an interesting play.

Pittsburgh are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games.
Pittsburgh are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.
Pittsburgh are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against Buffalo.


Buffalo News & Notes

In 2020, Josh Allen threw for over 4,500 yards, 37 TDs and even picked up over 400 yards rushing. If it is announced that TJ Watt will not dress Sunday, Allen and the Bills offense could be poised to put up some big numbers at home.

Stefon Diggs hauled in eight of Allen’s 37 touchdown passes last year while leading the NFL in receiving yards. Buffalo’s top target sat out the preseason with a knee injury, but he has returned to practice recently and is expected to dress on Sunday.

Buffalo ended last year 8-1 over its final nine games and was 5-1 against the spread in its last six games at home. This year Buffalo trails only Kansas City (+450) and Tampa Bay (+650) as betting favorites to win the Super Bowl. The Bills are currently +1100 to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy. 


Buffalo are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Buffalo's last 19 games.
Buffalo are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games against Pittsburgh.



Chicago Bears @ LA Rams

4:25 PM

LAR -8 (-109)

O/U 47 (-109)


Los Angeles is 8-2 SU in its last 10 home games.
Chicago is 2-4 SU and ATS in its last 6 road games.
The UNDER is 6-2 in the past 8 meetings.

Chicago News & Notes

Chicago fans are eagerly anticipating the debut of rookie Justin Fields, and his presence under center instead of Dalton would certainly give bettors more to like about the road underdog in this situation.

Unfortunately for them and the Bears, it will likely take an injury or an extremely poor performance to make that a reality in the season opener, although both are possibilities against a defense as good as the Rams’.

The sight of Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald and his teammates chasing Dalton around could lead to either possibility, and Chicago’s offensive line will definitely be tested on Sunday night. Foles was picked off twice and sacked four times last year, and that could happen again here.

Chicago are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games.
Chicago are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games.
Chicago are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games against LA Rams.


Los Angeles News & Notes

There should not be any real pressure on Stafford to perform given the team around him, which is already better than any of his previous squads in Detroit. That along with his familiarity with the Bears from his time in the Motor City makes him an excellent option to go OVER any passing props with regard to yardage and touchdowns.

That said, the expectations are higher for the Rams because Stafford is seemingly an upgrade over Goff. In addition, the only negative of a shortened preseason is that Stafford did not take any snaps with his new teammates in real game scenarios, as rookie Bryce Perkins played almost exclusively in an effort to earn a spot on the roster, which he did.

The total has gone UNDER in 11 of LA Rams' last 15 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams' last 8 games against Chicago.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Rams' last 8 games at home.
LA Rams are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games when playing at home against Chicago.



Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints

4:25 PM

GB -3.5 (-108)

O/U 49.5 (-109)


The Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 divisional games.

The Packers are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 road games vs the Bears.

The UNDER is 14-4 in Chicago’s last 18 home games.


Green Bay News & Notes

After a tumultuous offseason in which Aaron Rodgers demanded a trade and originally declared he was no longer interested in playing for Green Bay, the Packers and Rodgers worked things out with a new arrangement and an updated contract. And so the Packers will get Rodgers back fresh off the 37-year-old’s sensational MVP season in which he had 4,299 passing yards, 48 passing touchdowns and only five interceptions.

Green Bay went 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS over its previous seven games before losing a competitive NFC championship game to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Without Rodgers, a brutal schedule and an inexperienced quarterback might have led to the Packers missing the postseason. With the veteran back under center, Green Bay is one of the biggest threats to Tampa Bay in the NFC.

Green Bay is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last 3 September games.
New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games vs NFC teams.
The OVER is 7-0 in New Orleans’ last 7 Week 1 games.



Chicago News & Notes

Drew Brees is out after 15 fantastic seasons in New Orleans. Jameis Winston will take over the reins to become the 34th starting quarterback in Saints history on Sunday. Winston beat out Taysom Hill for the job and will get another crack at starting in the NFL after his infamous 2019 season with the Buccaneers. Winston led the NFL in passing yards with 5,109 that season and also had 33 touchdown passes, but his 30 interceptions made him a major liability.

This is going to be an interesting year for the Saints. New Orleans is still loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, but the big question marks in Winston at quarterback and a handful of new players on defense make it tough to predict how 2021 will go. After four straight NFC South titles and a combined regular-season record of 49-17 SU over the last four years, it’s a strange feeling to be unsure about what to expect in New Orleans.


New Orleans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans' last 11 games.
New Orleans are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games.
The total has gone OVER in 9 of New Orleans' last 10 games against Green Bay.





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