NFL 2021 Week 4 Writeup
posted Oct 03 2021, 12:04PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting


NFL Football - Week 4


October 3, 2021


*2021 NFL Season Record:

*2021 NFL Season/Playoffs Record:

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys

1:00 PM

DAL -4 (-113)

O/U  51 (-108)


Carolina is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 road games.

Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 October games.

The UNDER is 6-0 in Carolina’s last 6 games.




Panthers News & Notes

The Panthers lost Christian McCaffrey to a hamstring injury early in the fourth quarter last Sunday against the Houston Texans. It looked like they might be in for a tough day when they entered the half only holding a 7-6 lead, but the Panthers went on to dominate the second half en route to a 24-9 victory. Sam Darnold finished the day with 304 passing yards and two rushing touchdowns.

Darnold has played very well through his first three games in Carolina. But the team’s real star has been its shutdown defense. Carolina ranks first in the NFL in total yards allowed per game (191) and second in total points allowed per game (10).

This unit will get its toughest test of the season Sunday against a Cowboys offense that ranks fifth in the NFL in total yards with 416.7 per game.


Carolina are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 6 games.

Carolina are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.

Carolina are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games against Dallas.



Cowboys News & Notes

The Cowboys rolled to a 41-21 win on Monday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. Dak Prescott went 21-for-28 with 238 passing yards and three passing touchdowns in the victory and Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 95 yards and two touchdowns.

Elliott’s reduced workload in sharing carries with Tony Pollard this season won’t make fantasy owners happy, but it should keep Dallas’s feature back fresh and healthy over a long 17-game season.

Prescott went 42-for-58 and racked up 403 passing yards and three passing touchdowns in the Cowboys’ season-opening 31-29 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He has thrown a total of 53 passes in his two games since, completing 83 percent of them.

Once again, fantasy sports players may not be happy with Prescott’s less gaudy numbers, but Cowboys fans and backers should be happy with the positive results due to a renewed focus on the running game in Dallas.


Dallas are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas' last 10 games.

Dallas are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas' last 5 games against Carolina.






Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

4:25 PM

SF -2.5 (-105)

O/U 52 (-108)


Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.

The OVER is 4-2 in the 49ers’ last 6 games.

The 49ers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 home games.



Seahawks News & Notes

After opening with a solid win on the road, the Seahawks have suffered back-to-back tough losses, losing in overtime to the Titans at home and then falling on the road to the previously winless Vikings.

The defense has struggled to stop anyone, giving up 63 points over the last two games. Clearly the performance hasn’t sat well with coach Pete Carroll, who tackled the topic directly in a post-game presser: “We’ve got to take care of business in here. We weren’t able to get them off the spot rushing the passer enough.”

Even with Carroll addressing it, the OVER looks tasty considering the struggles of the defense and the firepower of the Seattle passing game.


Seattle are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Seattle's last 12 games.

Seattle are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games.

Seattle are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games against San Francisco.



49ers News & Notes

San Francisco suffered a gut punch on Sunday night, taking a late lead against the Packers at home and looking like they were on their way to 3-0. However, Aaron Rodgers and Mason Crosby had other ideas.

There were positives, though, as Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle and the 49ers defense all had moments when they looked like the pieces we think they could ultimately end up being. Head coach Kyle Shanahan also liked the play of Garoppolo, saying: “I thought Jimmy played real well tonight.”

If Garoppolo can hit the throws off play-action, this team becomes much more dangerous, but that certainly is a big ask and a big question mark.


San Francisco are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games.

San Francisco are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games against Seattle.







Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots

8:20 PM

TB -6.5 (-108)

O/U .5 (-107)


New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 as a home underdog.

The UNDER is 7-1 in the past 8 meetings.

Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last 5 SNF games.



Bucs News & Notes

This is the ultimate pupil vs teacher matchup, and the Buccaneers have proven to be a perfect landing spot for Brady at this stage of his career. The Patriots obviously did not have the same level of talent as Brady expected as a 44-year-old veteran, and they still do not as they have transitioned to a 23-year-old rookie in Jones.

The mismatch at quarterback here is as big as it can possibly get, and Tampa needs to take advantage of it. That said, the Bucs have struggled immensely on the defensive side of the ball so far this year, coming off a rough 34-24 loss to the Rams last Sunday. The good news for them is their opponent this week is only averaging 18 points through the first three games.


Tampa Bay are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games.

Tampa Bay are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games.

Tampa Bay are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against New England.



Patriots News & Notes

Belichick has always been known as a coach who can somehow find a way to take away an opponent’s top offensive weapon. However, that was not really the case last Sunday in a 28-13 loss to the New Orleans Saints, with running back Alvin Kamara rushing 24 times for 89 yards and Taysom Hill gaining 32 on six totes to help take some pressure off quarterback Jameis Winston.

Tampa Bay has many more weapons offensively, and it will be much more difficult to stop this foe. Brady aside, the Bucs also have one of the best receiving corps in the NFL, including another former Patriot in tight end Rob Gronkowski.


New England are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England's last 11 games.

New England are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 8 games against Tampa Bay.













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