NFL 2021 Week 5 Writeup
posted Oct 10 2021, 09:50AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting


NFL Football - Week 5


October 10, 2021


*2021 NFL Season Record:

*2021 NFL Season/Playoffs Record:

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)





Green Bay Packers @ Cincinati Bengals

1:00 PM

GB -2.5 (-110)

O/U  50.5 (-109)



Green Bay is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games.

Cincinnati is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games as a home underdog.

Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS in its last 3 games vs Green Bay.



Packers News & Notes

t took awhile for Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb to recapture their old chemistry, but they seemed to find it last week in a 27-17 win over Pittsburgh. Cobb, who played with the Packers from 2011 to 2018 before spending the past two seasons in Dallas and Houston, caught five balls for 69 yards — more than he’d produced in his first three games combined — and a pair of touchdowns.

Cobb could be a player to target in fantasy leagues again this week after Marquez Valdes-Scantling was placed on injured reserve over the weekend. The Packers also played last week without linebacker Krys Barnes, offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins and cornerback Kevin King, and CB Jaire Alexander left Sunday’s game in the third quarter with a shoulder injury.

Kicker Mason Crosby extended his streak of successful field goals to a team-record 24 with a pair of short makes against Pittsburgh, although that performance comes with an asterisk. The Steelers blocked Crosby’s 26-yard attempt late in the first half and returned it 75 yards for an apparent touchdown, but the play was called back on a disputed offside call against Pittsburgh.


Green Bay are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games.

Green Bay are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games.

Green Bay are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games on the road.



Bengals News & Notes

Playing from behind hasn’t fazed the Bengals, who have overcome deficits of a touchdown or more in two of their three victories and had another comeback attempt fall just short against the Bears. Last Thursday, Cincinnati scored on each of its four second-half possessions to dig itself out of a 14-0 halftime hole and edge the Jaguars 24-21.

Joe Burrow threw for a season-high 348 yards and two touchdowns against Jacksonville, with both of those majors going to tight end C.J. Uzomah. Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd have also been popular targets for Burrow in the absence of Tee Higgins, the team’s top receiver last year who has been sidelined by a shoulder injury.

The Bengals defense has also contributed to Cincy’s 3-1 SU start, ranking seventh in the NFL in both fewest points and fewest yards allowed. Cincinnati’s biggest issue at the moment might be its running game, with top back Joe Mixon failing to crack the 100-yard plateau since the season opener. Mixon was held to 67 yards against Jacksonville before leaving the game with an ankle injury.


The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games.

Cincinnati are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home.

Cincinnati are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay.





New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

4:25 PM

DAL -7 (-109)

O/U 53 (-108)



Dallas is 3-0 SU in its last 3 games.

The OVER is 5-0 in Dallas’s last 5 home games.

New York is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 as a road underdog.



Giants News & Notes

The Giants earned a positive road result in Week 4 against New Orleans and remain on the road this week for a visit to AT&T Stadium. Back-to-back road victories would be a huge accomplishment for this team.

At times, it seems like anything is possible with a healthy Saquon Barkley, who scored the game-winning touchdown in New Orleans. Both he and Daniel Jones have looked fantastic in certain situations this season. We know what Jones can do with his arm, and his decision-making has seemingly improved, with only one interception thrown through four games.

If they can continue to be a beacon of hope for the Giants, their defense has proven to be reliable enough to get the job done, conceding only 95 points this season. Mind you, the Falcons, Washington, Broncos and Saints are not the most offensively gifted teams; New York’s defense will have its hands full on Sunday.


The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants' last 11 games.

NY Giants are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games.

NY Giants are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against Dallas.

NY Giants are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games against Dallas.



Cowboys News & Notes

If not for Tom Brady’s miraculous play on the opening evening of the season, the Cowboys would be sitting at 4-0. As it stands, they’re 3-1 and have an opportunity to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the division.

Following this game, the Cowboys hit the road to face the Vikings and Patriots in a pair of tough environments, so they’ll want to end their three-game homestand with a bang.

Offensively, the Cowboys have so many weapons that it is difficult for all of them to remain productive, something we saw last week with CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys led by a safe margin, which resulted in fewer passing attempts for Dak Prescott.

Cornerback Trevon Diggs had a fruitful outing against the Panthers with two interceptions. He now has five picks on the year, including at least one in each of his four games.


Dallas are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas' last 11 games.

Dallas are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas' last 5 games against NY Giants.







Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

8:20 PM

KC -3 (-101)

O/U 56.5 (-110)



Buffalo is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games.

Buffalo is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 as a road underdog.

Kansas City is 2-12-1 ATS in its last 15 games.



Bills News & Notes

Buffalo may have overlooked its first opponent of the season in the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the team has not disappointed since then. The result has been a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS, including two shutouts and margins of victory averaging more than 32 points.

Now comes the true test between the two favorites to win the conference and get to the Super Bowl at the end of the season. Surprisingly, the Bills did not play a perfect game in a 40-0 rout of the Houston Texans last Sunday despite covering the spread easily as massive 18.5-point home favorites. There is always room for improvement, and Allen can definitely play better than he did vs the Texans last week.


Buffalo are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games.

Buffalo are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games.

Buffalo are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Kansas City.



Chiefs News & Notes

As noted earlier, the Chiefs have left a lot to be desired on the defensive side of the ball, and they will need to be better in order to win this game. Kansas City will continue to rack up wins against teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, who could not keep up on the scoreboard in a 42-30 home loss last Sunday.

Buffalo is a much more difficult opponent, though, and there will be a lot smaller margin for error when playing a defense that forced five turnovers by Houston. Like last year, this one could come down to the play of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has thrown four interceptions in 2021 and is on pace for a career high in that category. Still, the magic of Mahomes might be the difference.


Kansas City are 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games.

Kansas City are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Kansas City's last 17 games against Buffalo.












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