NFL 2022 Week 15 Writeup
posted Dec 18 2022, 09:25AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 15


December 18, 2022


*2021 NFL Season Record:

*2021 NFL Season/Playoffs Record:

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

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Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars

1:00 PM

DAL -4 (-111)

O/U 47.5 (-110)



Jacksonville is 4-0 SU in its last 4 as a home underdog.

Dallas is 9-0 SU in its last 9 games in December.

Jacksonville is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 vs the NFC.



Cowboys News & Notes


The Cowboys have won four in a row and are averaging more than 37 points per game during that stretch. And while Dak Prescott has been solid, their run game, consisting of a two-headed monster, has been their bread and butter.

Tony Pollard has seven touchdowns in his last six games, while Ezekiel Elliott has found the end zone eight times in his last six. They are a big reason why Dallas has scored the third-most points per game in the league behind only the Eagles and Chiefs.

The defense has also been strong all season long. They allow the fifth-fewest yards per game at just over 310. Micah Parsons has been a one-man wrecking crew with 12 sacks – tied for third in the NFL. The Cowboys also made some off-field news earlier this week by adding another wide receiver to the mix. No, it wasn’t Odell Beckham Jr., but rather T.Y. Hilton.

Discipline from Dak. Prescott has thrown nine interceptions this season, tied for seventh-most in the NFL. The problem is that he has only played eight games and he has thrown multiple picks in three of his last five starts. If he can avoid turning the ball over, then Dallas should be a lock to pick up its fifth consecutive victory.


Dallas are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas' last 6 games.

Dallas are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.

Dallas are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.



Jaguars News & Notes


Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence is coming off arguably the best game of his young career last Sunday. He threw for 368 yards and three touchdowns and also ran in another TD as Jacksonville beat Tennessee 36-22. It was the team’s third win in five games, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive. They sit two games back of both the final wild-card spot and the division-leading Titans.

The Jacksonville run game has disappeared in recent weeks. After Travis Etienne Jr. averaged over 126 yards on the ground in Weeks 7 through 9, the team is averaging just 67 total rushing yards per game over its last four contests. Etienne is rushing for under 34 yards per game during that stretch.

Re-establish their run game. Etienne needs to be a factor to take some of the pressure off Lawrence. And if the Cowboys have a weakness you can exploit, it’s their rush defense. They are allowing more than 128 yards per game on the ground. If Jacksonville can run the ball effectively, then taking a chance on the home dog when making your Cowboys vs Jaguars pick could pay off nicely.


Jacksonville are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games.

Jacksonville are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games against Dallas.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games at home.









Cincinnati Bengas @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4:25 PM

CIN -3.5 (-110)

O/U 45.5 (-110)



Cincinnati is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games.

Tampa Bay is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games.

Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in the past 8 meetings.



Bengals News & Notes


Unlike their counterparts in the NFC, the Bengals have looked great lately in their effort to successfully defend their conference championship. They are the hottest team in the AFC with a five-game winning streak, which includes an upset of the AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs, who have lost three straight meetings in the series.

Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow is playing like a true NFL MVP candidate as well and would likely be in the conversation more if not for what Jalen Hurts is doing for the Philadelphia Eagles this season.

The only real negative for the team recently is that Pro Bowl defensive end Trey Hendrickson suffered a broken wrist in last week’s victory against the Browns while wide receiver Tee Higgins hurt his hamstring. However, head coach Zac Taylor said Hendrickson will not have to go on injured reserve and Higgins is considered day-to-day.

Cincinnati has been able to overcome key injuries to running back Joe Mixon (concussion) and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (hip) during the team’s season-high winning streak, and both are now back on the field and contributing like they never missed time. That is a credit to the coaching staff, and the Bengals would be wise to look at how the 49ers attacked the defense of the Buccaneers. Burrow is much better than San Francisco rookie Brock Purdy too, so he will be the difference-maker in this spot.  


Cincinnati are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Cincinnati's last 18 games.

Cincinnati are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.

Cincinnati are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against Tampa Bay.



Bucs News & Notes


The Buccaneers have not scored more than 21 points in any of their six wins this year, with their biggest offensive output coming in a 41-31 loss to the Chiefs in Week 4 as 2-point home favorites after trailing that one 38-17 late in the third quarter. 

Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady was visibly upset in his homecoming game at San Francisco last Sunday, throwing a season-high two interceptions and watching his receivers drop a few balls they probably should have caught.

Regardless, the Buccaneers continue to have the NFL’s worst running game with 72.9 yards per game and four touchdowns on the ground. There is little time left to get that corrected before the end of the regular season.

Three of Tampa Bay’s last four wins have come at home, with the other taking place in Germany. The team has lost just once in its last four at Raymond James Stadium, limiting opponents to 16 points or less in all three of the wins. The Ravens upset the Bucs there 27-22 in Week 8 as 2-point underdogs, and the home team must simply perform better. The defense played poorly last week vs a difficult opponent, and Cincinnati will be an equally tough foe. If Tampa Bay is going to win here, a better defensive effort will be key.


Tampa Bay are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games.

Tampa Bay are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.

Tampa Bay are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the AFC.









New York Giants @ Washington Commanders

8:20 PM

WAS -4 (-110)

O/U 40.5 (-110)




New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 road games.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Washington’s last 11 games.

The UNDER is 7-1 in New York’s last 8 as a dog vs Washington.


Giants News & Notes


The Giants found themselves down 24-7 at halftime last week against Philadelphia and ultimately lost 48-22 to the NFC-best Eagles, who bulldozed their division rivals by amassing 253 rushing yards.

In their draw against the Commanders in Week 13, Daniel Jones completed 25 of 31 passes for 200 yards and a touchdown. The Duke product added 71 yards on the ground on 12 carries while Saquon Barkley aided him with 18 carries for 63 yards.

Despite the success on the ground, the aerial attack remains stagnant. Jones has had little to no help from his receiving corps as defenses continue to stack the box to bottle up Barkley and the mobile quarterback. The Giants offense ranks sixth in rushing and 28th in passing.

Someone needs to step up in the Giants receiving corps if they are to make a playoff push. Whether it’s Richie James or Darius Slayton or someone else doesn’t matter, but it won’t matter how strong their rush attack is if the offense remains one-dimensional.


NY Giants are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.

NY Giants are 1-4-1 SU in their last 6 games.

NY Giants are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against Washington.

NY Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.



Commanders News & Notes

The insertion of Taylor Heinicke into the starting QB role has proven fruitful for Washington. The Old Dominion alumnus has posted a 5-1-1 record this season as a starter and continues to get the job done. In his last action against these same Giants, Heinicke racked up 275 yards and a pair of touchdowns while completing 27 of his 41 throws.

However, Heinicke was also sacked five times by the Giants and posted his worst QBR of the season. In order to take some of the weight off his shoulders, Brian Robinson Jr. will be given a hefty dose of attempts out of the backfield.

Since returning from injury, Robinson has been terrific, averaging nearly four yards per carry. He had 21 carries for 96 yards in the first go-around with the Giants and will likely play a key factor once again. The Commanders lead the NFL in time of possession and are second in number of plays. The rush attack has been key not only in accumulating those statistics, but also allowing playmakers such as Curtis Samuel and Terry McLaurin to find holes in the secondary.

Lean on the slew of running backs in the backfield and let Heinicke cook through the play-action pass. With several strong pass-catchers at his disposal, if he can effectively get the ball into the hands of the playmakers, the Commanders should be able to cover the point spread and win in a one-touchdown game.


Washington are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games.

Washington are 6-1-1 SU in their last 8 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 11 games at home.












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