NFL 2022 Week 17 Writeup
posted Jan 01 2023, 10:36AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 17


January 1, 2023


*2021 NFL Season Record:

*2021 NFL Season/Playoffs Record:

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Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1:00 PM

TB -3.5 (-111)

O/U 40.5 (-115)



Carolina is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games.

Tampa Bay is 1-11-1 ATS in its last 13 games.

Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings.



Panthers News & Notes

The Panthers have quietly been one of the league’s most profitable teams to bet on over the second half of the season, moving to 7-2 ATS in their last nine games with last weekend’s 37-23 rout of the Lions. They’re also 3-1 SU since Sam Darnold became the team’s starting quarterback, averaging 26.5 points per game during that span.

Darnold has been solid, throwing four touchdown passes and zero interceptions in those four games, but the bigger key has been Carolina’s running game. Led by D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard, the Panthers ran for a franchise-record 320 yards against the Lions — the fourth time in six games that Carolina has gained at least 185 yards on the ground.

Carolina’s biggest concern going into Sunday’s matchup with Tampa Bay might be its secondary. Cornerback Jaycee Horn broke his wrist last week and might not be able to play against the Bucs, and the Panthers are already without their other starting corner, Donte Jackson, because of a season-ending injury. Veteran Josh Norman was signed to the practice roster this week and could be pressed into his first game action of the season.

Carolina’s running game looked unstoppable last week against Detroit and should be able to do some damage again this week against a Bucs front that has struggled recently against the run. If the Panthers are able to move the ball effectively on the ground, it will also slow down Tampa Bay’s pass rush and give Darnold more time.


Carolina are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

Carolina are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games.

Carolina are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Tampa Bay.

Carolina are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Tampa Bay.




Bucs News & Notes

While Carolina continues to cash tickets for its backers, the Buccaneers have covered the spread just once since mid-September. Tampa Bay fell to 1-11-1 ATS in its last 13 games with Sunday’s 19-16 victory over Arizona, needing to rally from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter before prevailing in overtime against a 4-11 Cardinals squad playing its third-string quarterback.

Running backs Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White accounted for more than half of the Bucs’ yards against Arizona, combining for 214 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown catch. Tom Brady threw for 281 yards but was also intercepted twice, the third straight game in which he’s thrown a pair of picks.

Brady and the Bucs have plenty of big-game experience while the young Panthers could struggle with the pressure of this must-win contest. Brady also continues to find a way to get the job done in close games, leading Tampa Bay on late game-winning drives in three of the Buccaneers’ last four victories.


Tampa Bay are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 15 games.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games against Carolina.

Tampa Bay are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home.








Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

1:00 PM

NE -3 (+100)

O/U 43.5 (-110)



Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.

New England is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last 5 games.

Miami is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last 6 meetings.



Dolphins News & Notes

The Dolphins are thrilled to see the calendar flip to 2023 after going winless throughout the entire month of December. Miami’s 26-20 loss to Green Bay on Sunday was the Dolphins’ fourth straight, a skid that has dropped the Fish from a first-place tie atop the AFC East to fighting for a wild-card spot with two weeks to go.

Worse yet, starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was placed in concussion protocol on Monday after banging his head on the ground against the Packers. Tagovailoa could still clear protocol in time to play against the Patriots, but backup Teddy Bridgewater will get all the first-team reps in practice this week.

Receivers Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill both had more than 100 yards receiving in Sunday’s loss to Green Bay, but the Dolphins were held scoreless in the second half after scoring 20 points in the first two quarters.

Miami has had the Patriots’ number over the past several years, winning five of the last six meetings — with three of those victories coming by nine points or more. If Tagovailoa is unable to play, Bridgewater is one of the most capable backups in the league.


Miami are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.

Miami are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.

Miami are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against New England.

Miami are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against New England.




Patriots News & Notes

A week after losing to Las Vegas on the game’s final play, the Patriots suffered another gutting defeat Saturday against Cincinnati. Down four points with just over a minute to go, New England had a first-and-goal at the Bengals’ five-yard line before Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled the ball away and Cincy ran out the clock.

New England might have been able to avoid its fourth loss in five games if the Patriots had been more productive on offense, especially early. Mac Jones and the Pats were held to just 70 total yards in the opening half, and seven of their 18 points in the game came courtesy of a 69-yard interception return by Marcus Jones — the Patriots’ league-leading sixth defensive touchdown of the season.

Offensive struggles are nothing new for New England, which has gone UNDER the total in six of its last eight games overall and five of six at home. The Patriots might also be without top tight end Hunter Henry against Miami after Henry left last week’s game in the first quarter with an injury.

The warm-weather Dolphins have historically struggled in late-season visits to Foxborough, going 4-10 SU and ATS in their last 14 road games vs the Patriots in December or January. But New England still has to find a way to score more points at home, where the Pats have been held to 18 or less in four of their last five games.


New England are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 8 games.

New England are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games against Miami.









New York Jets Vs Seattle Seahawks

4:05 PM

NYJ -1 (-114)

O/U 43.5 (-110)




New York is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games.

The UNDER is 8-2 in New York’s last 10 games.


Jets News & Notes

With both teams in desperate need of a victory, the Jets were unable to produce in Week 16 against the Jacksonville Jaguars in a contest featuring a matchup between the first two picks from the 2021 NFL Draft.

The Jags’ Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick, reigned supreme by completing 20 of 31 passes for 229 yards and leading Jacksonville to a 19-3 win. Wilson, the second pick, turned in another stinker, throwing for 92 yards on 9-of-18 passing before being yanked in favor of third-stringer Chris Streveler late in the third quarter.

Streveler was adequate as his replacement, going 10-for-15 for 90 passing yards and adding 54 rushing yards. But he was the only Jet to muster double-digit yardage on the ground as New York managed just 10 first downs and went a miserable 2-for-13 in third-down efficiency. 

The New York defense continues to be impressive, ranking fifth in the NFL in total scoring and third in total yards allowed. The unit will have to come up big against a Seattle offense that ranks seventh in total scoring and fifth in total yards.

Let Mike White cook. His return to the lineup should allow the Jets to move the ball effectively in comparison to their production with Zach Wilson under center. If the Jets lean on the run game and their strong defense and don’t turn the ball over, they can keep the game close. If it goes down to the wire, anything can happen, including a game-winning field goal to win and cover.


NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Jets' last 10 games.

NY Jets are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.

NY Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Seattle.




Seahawks News & Notes

Winning in Kansas City is a tough proposition, and the Seahawks were not up to the task in Week 16, falling behind 17-3 at the half and ultimately falling 24-10 to the team that shares the best record in the AFC.

Geno Smith, the leading candidate for NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors, had his moments. He threw the ball 40 times and completed 25 passes for 215 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Rookie sensation Kenneth Walker rushed the ball 26 times for 107 yards and DK Metcalf stepped up big in the aerial attack with Tyler Lockett out of the lineup, snagging seven catches for 81 yards. 

The defense was stout against MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes, limiting him to only 220 passing yards and keeping the Chiefs below 300 yards of total offense. The Seahawks unit can take this momentum home and use it against a Jets offense susceptible to turnovers and stalled drives.

While the Jets look to their quarterback, the Seahawks need to look in the direction of Kenneth Walker. The rookie running back is back and looked terrific in Kansas City. Geno Smith’s performance has fallen off ever so slightly, and with little room for error in this game, a heavy dose of Walker combined with timely takeaways will give the Seahawks the upset victory.


The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games played in January.

Seattle are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games against NY Jets.

Seattle are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games at home.













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