2023 NFL Week 11 Writeup

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

MIA -14 (-110) | O/U 44.5 (-110)

1:00 PM

Raiders News & Notes

The Las Vegas defense has allowed just one touchdown in the last two games, although the team’s past two opponents have not exactly been offensive juggernauts. Still, the Raiders have been able to turn things around by outscoring the opposition 46-18 during their winning streak, with the offense centered around running back Josh Jacobs.

The 2022 NFL rushing champion carried the ball 53 times for 214 yards against the Jets and Giants with two touchdowns. Jacobs’ ability to carry the offense has taken some pressure off of rookie quarterback Aiden O’Connell, who moved to 2-1 in his three starts, winning both games since Pierce took over and had the confidence in him to get the job done.

Defensively, Las Vegas must continue to put pressure on the quarterback, and that means Maxx Crosby needs to make Tua Tagovailoa feel uncomfortable throughout the game. Tagovailoa has cooled off from his hot start but managed to stay upright a lot more this season while dodging the injury bug at the same time.

Offensively, Jacobs has to remain effective on the ground with his strong running, so the game does not turn into a track meet. If they can do that, then they can keep it close and possibly cover the spread.

• Las Vegas are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Las Vegas’ last 8 games.
• Las Vegas are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.
• Las Vegas are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games against Miami.

Dolphins News & Notes

• Miami are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.
• Miami are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami’s last 8 games against Las Vegas.
• Miami are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games at home.

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

LAR 1.5 (-110) | O/U 46.5 (-110)

4:25 PM

Seahawks News & Notes

Jason Myers went 5-for-5 on field goal attempts including the game-winning field goal as time expired in Seattle’s 29-26 win at home over the Washington Commanders as 6-point home favorites on Sunday. Geno Smith went 31-for-47 with 369 passing yards and two touchdown passes in the win. Smith has 2,171 passing yards, 11 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions in nine starts so far this season.

The Seahawks fell to 0-2-1 ATS over their last three games after failing to cover the spread despite having a winning 2-1 SU record over that stretch. Seattle is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five games against NFC opponents.

Seattle had no answers for the Rams on defense in a 30-13 loss at home back in Week 1. The Rams haven’t looked quite as dominant on offense since then, but they’ve had a bye week to prepare for this game and will have Cooper Kupp in the mix this time around. It’s safe to assume that Los Angeles will be able to put up some points against this Seahawks defense that has allowed an average of 31.5 points per game in November.

It’ll be up to Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense to keep up and try to win a high-scoring game this Sunday. Seattle has won every game it has scored at least 20 points in this season and will likely need at least that much again in this one.

• Seattle are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle’s last 6 games.
• Seattle are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games.
• Seattle are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against LA Rams.

Rams News & Notes

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

BUF -8 (-110) | O/U 39.5 (-110)

4:25 PM

 Jets News & Notes

New York failed to score a touchdown for the second week in a row last Sunday, losing to the Las Vegas Raiders 16-12 as 1-point road favorites. Zach Wilson went 23-for-39 with 263 passing yards and an interception while also leading the team in rushing with 54 yards. Running back Breece Hall was held to only 28 rushing yards on 13 carries in the game.

The Jets rank 29th in total offense this season with 283.1 total yards per game and 30th in scoring averaging 16 points per game. Struggles on offense have played a large role in the team’s current 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS skid over its last nine road games.

Zach Wilson has thrown only one touchdown pass in New York’s last five games. The Jets have scored 13 points or fewer in each of their last three games and in five of their last eight games since their season-opening 22-16 overtime win against Buffalo.

Whether you want to place the blame on Wilson or Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, there’s no denying that this offense is terrible. To cover the spread or to pull off an upset in Buffalo, the Jets will need to rely heavily on their defense to take advantage of Josh Allen’s mistake-prone play with some timely turnovers to help this struggling offense out.

• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets’ last 5 games.
• NY Jets are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games.
• NY Jets are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Buffalo.
• NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against Buffalo.

Bills News & Notes

The Bills continued their recent stretch of poor play with a 24-22 loss to the Denver Broncos as 7.5-point favorites at home on Monday night. Josh Allen had a rough night going 15-for-26 with 177 passing yards, one passing touchdowns and two interceptions to push him into the NFL lead in interceptions with 11 this season. Buffalo fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after the loss.

During the team’s current 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS slump, Buffalo has lost as a 4.5-point favorite against the Jacksonville Jaguars and twice as a 7.5-point favorite to Denver and the New England Patriots. The Bills have scored only 17.2 points per game over that six-game run.

The Bills rank fifth in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing only 18.4 points per game. But with an out-of-sync offense that ranks second highest in the NFL in turnovers with 18 through 10 games, and untimely penalties, the Bills have made a habit of beating themselves in recent weeks.

With upcoming road games against the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs up next, this is a must-win game for the Bills if they hope to keep their chances of making the playoffs alive. Earning a win and cover in this game will require much better execution and less mistakes than we’ve seen from this group during its recent slump.

• Buffalo are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games.
• Buffalo are 13-6 SU in their last 19 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 6 games against NY Jets.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs

KC -2.5 (-115) | O/U 45.5 (-110)

Monday 8:20 PM

Eagles News & Notes

Outside of Hurts, Philadelphia’s rushing attack was virtually non-existent versus Kansas City in the Super Bowl, with Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott combining for 45 yards on 17 carries. Sanders later departed via free agency, and the Eagles essentially signed D’Andre Swift to replace him.

Swift got off to a hot start this season after coming over from the Detroit Lions, but he has cooled off lately with 62 rushing yards or less in four straight games. His worst effort was 10 carries for 18 yards in a 20-14 road loss to the New York Jets in Week 6, the team’s lone setback this year.

Hurts was bothered by a sore knee before Philadelphia’s bye week, so it would be helpful if Swift and/or Gainwell could take some of the rushing load off of him in this spot. The Eagles are obviously not at their best offensively when Hurts has to do too much, and that was the case in the Super Bowl as well when a key fumble resulted in a touchdown by the Chiefs to tie the game at 14-14.

Kansas City’s defense is on par with New York’s unit that stymied Swift and the team earlier this season, and he has to play better. Keep in mind, they are 0-6 SU in their last six as underdogs, going 0-5 ATS in the past five.

• Philadelphia are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games.
• Philadelphia are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Kansas City.
• Philadelphia are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Kansas City.
• Philadelphia are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games on the road.

Chiefs News & Notes

The Kansas City defense made a serious statement in a 21-14 win over the Miami Dolphins in Germany prior to the bye week, holding them scoreless in the first half of a game for the first time since Week 2 of the 2021 season.

Offensively, the Chiefs did all of their scoring in the first half on a pair of touchdown passes from Mahomes while the defense added a touchdown on a fumble return from Bryan Cook. This despite All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce being held to only 14 yards on three catches – both season lows. It is worth noting that neither Mahomes nor Kelce played at 100 percent against the Eagles in the Super Bowl, and each is healthy now with some extra rest from the bye.

Philadelphia’s secondary has been among the worst in the NFL in 2023 due in part to some key departures from the defense in the offseason. Kansas City must take advantage of that weakness because the opposition also has the league’s top-ranked run defense, giving up just 66.3 yards per game on the ground.

The Chiefs have so many different ways to beat foes in the passing game, from Kelce to rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice, who may be one of their most dangerous weapons down the stretch. If Mahomes works his magic vs. the Eagles again through the air, a win and cover will result.

• Kansas City are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 5 games.
• Kansas City are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games against Philadelphia.