2023 NFL Week 3 Writeup

Buffalo Bills @ Washington Commanders

BUF -6 (-110) | O/U 43 (-110)

1:00 PM

Bills News & Notes

The Bills bounced back from their disappointing season opener with a dominant performance in a 38-10 blowout win over the Las Vegas Raiders as 7.5-point favorites at home. Josh Allen went 31-for-37 with 274 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and no interceptions after throwing just one touchdown pass and three interceptions in Week 1.

James Cook also had a breakout game at running back with 123 rushing yards on 17 carries and 36 receiving yards on four catches. Buffalo enters this road test against the Commanders with a 14-6 SU and 12-7-1 ATS record in its last 20 road games.

When Josh Allen is playing well, this Bills offense is extremely difficult to stop. And with James Cook breaking out to give Buffalo a dangerous rushing attack to go along with its elite passing game, all systems appear to be a go for this Bills offense. On defense, the Bills 264.5 total yards per game allowed and 16 points per game allowed both rank fifth best in the NFL.

So as long as Allen is able to avoid turnovers this Sunday, there’s a good chance that the Bills will win and cover the spread. It will also be important that they don’t take their foot off the gas late given how much resiliency Washington has shown through its first two games.

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo’s last 7 games.
• Buffalo are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games.
• Buffalo are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against Washington.
• Buffalo are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games against Washington.

Commanders News & Notes

After falling into an early 21-3 hole on the road against the Denver Broncos, the Commanders rallied to win the game outright 35-33 as 4-point underdogs. This marked the second straight week that Washington trailed going into the fourth quarter and went on to win the game.

Sam Howell went 27-for-39 with 299 passing yards two passing touchdowns and no interceptions in the win and Brian Robinson Jr. led the rushing attack with 87 yards and two touchdowns on 18 rushing attempts. The Commanders improved to 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog with that upset victory.

• Washington are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Washington’s last 17 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington’s last 6 games against Buffalo.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington’s last 6 games at home.

Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs

KC -13 (+100) | O/U 48 (-110)

4:25 PM

Bears News & Notes

The Bears seized the early lead and managed to keep things close with a 20-yard scoring catch by Chase Claypool midway through the final frame. But the Bears subsequently saw their comeback bid scuttled by a pair of interceptions thrown by quarterback Justin Fields, on their way to a 12th straight defeat.

Pegged as strong 2.5-point underdogs in the contest, the Bears’ 27-17 defeat marked their fifth straight loss by double-digit margins, and consequently their fifth straight ATS defeat. Overall, Chicago has now failed to score more than 20 points in eight straight games while surrendering 31.8 points per game over that stretch. The upside for Chicago is the trend toward low scoring when the team visits Kansas City, with the total failing to top 36 in five clashes since 1981.

In his post-game comments, Justin Fields stated the Bears “definitely have a lot to fix”. While the Bears quarterback did his part to keep things close by tossing for 211 yards and one score, he enjoyed little help. The Bears offensive line allowed Fields to get sacked six times, bringing his season total to 10.

While Fields was constantly on the run, he picked up just three of the team’s 67 total rushing yards and faces a massive challenge to spark the Bears’ ground game against a Chiefs rush defense that has allowed an average of just 106.1 rushing yards and only 11 total TD runs in 19 their past 19 regular season games.

On a positive note, receiver Darnell Mooney has so far avoided the injury report after suffering a knee injury in Tampa Bay, and rookie rusher Roschon Johnson was steady once again while contributing 32 yards on four carries including a 29-yard run that set the stage for a Bears field goal in the second quarter.

• Chicago are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 10 of Chicago’s last 13 games.
• Chicago are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games.
• Chicago are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Kansas City.

Chiefs News & Notes

Shocked by a 21-20 loss to the visiting Detroit Lions on the season premiere of Thursday Night Football, the Chiefs also had their hands full in last weekend’s visit to Jacksonville. The Chiefs did themselves no favors with a pair of early turnovers, and by racking up 94 yards in penalties. But after scoring on the first drive of the second half, the Chiefs’ defense emerged as the star of this team, limiting the Jags to just 75 total yards in the third quarter.

Despite the gaffes and slow start, Patrick Mahomes extended his streak of games without at least one TD pass to 30. But with just 37 total points scored this season, the Chiefs have work to do to overcome some scoring woes that have limited them to 24.2 points per game while going just 1-3 ATS in their past four home dates.

First and foremost, the Chiefs must avoid the sloppy starts and costly penalties that have marked their first two contests. The Chiefs have yet to score in first-quarter action so far this season and have failed to receive much production from their ground game apart from Isiah Pacheco’s 70-yard performance in Jacksonville.

After entering Sunday’s date with the Jaguars with a lengthy injury report, this team needs to quickly return to full health. Travis Kelce returned to action last weekend after missing Week 1 and contributed a TD and 26 receiving yards. Clyde Edwards-Helaire compiled just 17 receiving yards after missing practice all week due to illness but is hoped to be fully recovered by the weekend.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Las Vegas Raiders

LV -2.5 (-115) | O/U 43 (-105)

8:20 PM

Steelers News & Notes

Chastened by a crushing 30-7 loss to San Francisco to open their schedule, the Steelers responded with a big defensive effort in last week’s upset victory over the visiting Browns. Overall, the Steelers have now won and covered in eight of 11 games since last October. And apart from their Week 1 loss to the 49ers, they have kept opposing offense in check, allowing an average of just 17.1 points per game over their past nine outings.

However, with the Steelers attack sputtering, the team has produced mixed results in totals betting, with the OVER currently on a 5-3 run. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has failed to bust out, tossing just two scoring passes against three picks, and compiled a meager 50% completion rate versus the Browns.

The Steelers defense came up big last weekend, opening and closing the game’s scoring with a pick-six by Alex Highsmith and a fumble returned by TJ Watt for the game-winning touchdown. Another bruising effort could be key to the Steelers’ chances against an injury-stricken Raiders attack.

However, Kenny Pickett must find a way to spark the Steelers offense, which has scored just 20 total points over their first two games of the season.

• Pittsburgh are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
• Pittsburgh are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
• Pittsburgh are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Las Vegas.
• Pittsburgh are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games against Las Vegas.

Raiders News & Notes

With Jakobi Meyers sidelined by injury, the Raiders took a big step back in last week’s loss in Buffalo. Meyers led the way with two scoring catches in the Raiders’ 17-16 win in Denver as 3-point underdogs in Week 1, but missed the team’s loss to the Bills due to a concussion that leaves him questionable for Sunday night.

Without Meyers, passer Jimmy Garoppolo completed just 16 passes for 185 yards, one score, and two picks. Receiver Davante Adams is also being evaluated for a possible concussion suffered against the Bills. Those injury woes are bad news for an anemic Raiders offense that has scored more than 17 points just once during their current 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS run.

Much of the Raiders’ hopes for Sunday night hinge on the health and availability of Jakobi Meyers and Davante Adams. If both are ready to return, Jimmy Garoppolo will enjoy ample opportunity to generate offense against a Steelers squad that struggled to defend against the pass early on in their Week 1 loss to the Niners.

Without Adams or Meyers, the Raiders must rediscover their defensive touch after allowing 15 total touchdowns over their past four games.

• Las Vegas are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Las Vegas’ last 5 games against Pittsburgh.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas’ last 7 games at home.
• Las Vegas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh.