2023 NFL Week 5 Writeup

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

BAL -4.5 (-110) | O/U 38 (-110)

1:00 PM

Steelers News & Notes

Humbled by a 20-17 overtime loss to Indianapolis in Week 3, the Ravens rebounded with a vengeance last weekend, outclassing the browns on both sides of the ball in a 28-3 win as 1.5-point road favorites. Lamar Jackson once again demonstrated just how valuable he is to this team by getting in on all the scoring, tossing a pair of touchdown passes and twice carrying the ball into the end zone.

The Ravens defense did their fair share, spoiling Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s NFL debut by picking off the rookie passer three times, and limiting the Browns to just 166 total yards. With the win, the Ravens now enjoy their first road winning streak in divisional play since the 2020 season, and have also won and covered in three of five visits to Pittsburgh.

Baltimore’s scoring offense is in the middle of the pack this season averaging 23.7 points per game thanks to an elite rushing attack that ranks fifth in the NFL with 158 rushing yards per game. That rushing attack is about to get a very tough test in Cleveland facing a Browns rushing defense that ranks second best in the NFL allowing only 52 rushing yards per game.

It would be easy to just let Lamar Jackson to continue to do Lamar Jackson things as the ravens visit a Steelers team currently on the ropes.

However, the Ravens have struggled with Jackson at the helm, losing two of three previous dates, in which Jackson threw four total TDs against six picks and failed to produce a scoring run. Injuries to receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman, both of whom are listed as questionable, do not help matters. And with the Steelers defense eager to constantly harass Jackson, rusher Gus Edwards could be in for a steady diet of carries this weekend after getting the rock a season-high 15 rimes in last week’s win in Cleveland.

• Baltimore are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Baltimore’s last 19 games.
• Baltimore are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against Pittsburgh.
• Baltimore are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against Pittsburgh.

Ravens News & Notes

The Steelers’ early-season woes continued last weekend in Houston, where the team generated just 225 yards of total offense while failing to reach the end zone, and lost starting quarterback Kenny Pickett to a knee injury in the process. Pickett has struggled to spark the Pittsburgh attack while throwing just four touchdowns against four picks through four games.

Those woes continued in Cleveland, where Pickett tossed an interception on the Steelers’ first possession, and then generated just two first downs and 50 total yards on four subsequent first-half possessions. With Pickett at the helm, the Steelers have scored just 15.5 points per game, and the team’s 29th-ranked ground game has yet to find the end zone.

Head coach Mike Tomlin stated on Tuesday that he expects to see Kenny Pickett at practice this week, but if he is unable to go on Sunday, look for Mitch Trubisky to lead the Pittsburgh offense. Trubisky took over for the injured Pickett when the game was already out of reach last weekend.

The 29-year-old made seven early-season appearances for the Steelers last year including five starts, but quickly lost the job to Pickett after failing to toss a scoring pass in his final three starts. With serious question marks under center, the Steelers must find a way to revitalize their ground game. That could mean another big assignment for Najee Harris, who ran for a season-high 71 yards last week, and racked 111 rushing yards when the Steelers visited Baltimore on New Year’s Day.

• Pittsburgh are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 games.
• Pittsburgh are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games against Baltimore.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings

KC -3.5 (-105) | O/U 52.5 (-110)

4:25 PM

Chiefs News & Notes

After losing their season opener, all is good again in Kansas City. The Chiefs have reeled off three consecutive wins and go in search of their seventh straight road win, dating back to last season. They are putting up nearly 400 total yards per game this season, third-most in the league.

Patrick Mahomes, who threw for his 200th career touchdown in a win over the Jets Sunday, is spreading the ball around. They have six different players with 100+ receiving yards this season, including Mr. Swift himself, Travis Kelce, who leads the team with an average of just under 52 per game. Isiah Pacheco has also been huge for the Chiefs. He rushed for 115 yards and a touchdown last week and added 43 more through the air.

Defense. While the offense has gotten much of the glory in recent years, Chiefs management has built themselves one of the top defenses in the league. In fact, through four games, only four teams have given up fewer points than Kansas City so far this season.

Chris Jones leads the team with 3.5 sacks and will be important for him and his teammates to pressure Cousins and take him out of his comfort zone so that he isn’t given too much time to find his favorite target in Jefferson. If they can somehow contain that duo, you can expect the Chiefs to not only win the game but also cover the spread.

• Kansas City are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
• Kansas City are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games.
• Kansas City are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games against Minnesota.
• Kansas City are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games on the road.

Vikings News & Notes

Despite their early season struggles, Justin Jefferson continues to show everybody that he is one of, if not, the best wide receivers in the game. He leads all players at his position with 543 receiving yards, averaging over 135 per contest. He had a season-low 85 yards in last week’s win over the Panthers, but he did catch a pair of touchdowns.

They, of course, came courtesy of Kirk Cousins, who leads all quarterbacks with 11 passing TDs this season. His 1,214 passing yards is also the third-most in the NFL. But with the good, comes the bad, as the veteran pivot has already turned the ball over seven times this season, including four interceptions and three lost fumbles.

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers

SF -3.5 (-110) | O/U 45 (-110)

8:20 PM

Cowboys News & Notes

Dallas was hoping to be without a loss heading into this one but still bounced back nicely from its lone defeat to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3 by trouncing the New England Patriots 38-3 last Sunday in Week 4, covering the spread easily as a six-point home favorite.

The Cowboys turned in a dominant effort on both sides of the ball in handing Patriots head coach Bill Belichick his worst loss ever. In the three Dallas wins, the team has outscored its opponents 108-13 while sharing a common foe in Arizona, which could not duplicate the same upset magic in consecutive games, falling 35-16 at San Francisco.

Dallas lost running back Tony Pollard late in the first half of the last meeting at San Francisco with an ankle injury, and he has been solid this season since recovering from offseason surgery to repair it. Pollard is playing on the franchise tag this year, and games like this are made to prove whether or not he is really worth the money he will command again this coming offseason.

With backup Rico Dowdle suffering a hip injury last week and Pollard’s touches limited in the rout, he should be ready to handle a heavy workload.

• Dallas are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas’ last 8 games.
• Dallas are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games.
• Dallas are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games against San Francisco.

49ers News & Notes

San Francisco rode running back Christian McCaffrey to an easy win last week, as the team did not need more than his three first-half touchdowns to secure the victory. McCaffrey ended up with four scores on the day and has now scored at least one touchdown in a franchise-record 13 straight games, including the postseason.

Purdy also improved to 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS during the regular season as a starter, with the second-year player’s only career loss coming against the Philadelphia Eagles in 2023 NFC Championship Game. He will be looking to improve to 2-0 versus Dallas in this spot.

The Cowboys have been limited offensively with quarterback Dak Prescott under center, and he failed to come through in the last meeting when needed, especially after Pollard left. That said, San Francisco’s defense was the difference then and will be the biggest key again here as Purdy tries to improve to 10-0 in the regular season.

The Dallas defense can be a menace for opposing offenses too but will not be the same unit with star pass rusher Micah Parsons (knee) ailing and without cornerback Trevon Diggs (torn ACL). In addition, the 49ers have won their last 10 games at home, covering the past nine there.

• San Francisco are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco’s last 6 games.
• San Francisco are 16-1 SU in their last 17 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Francisco’s last 12 games against Dallas.