2023 NFL Week 6 Writeup

Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals

CIN -2.5 (-122) | O/U 45.5 (-106)

1:00 PM

Seahawks News & Notes

Seattle needed the extra break so that quarterback Geno Smith could heal up from what was deemed a minor knee injury suffered in a 24-3 rout of the New York Giants in the Week 4 Monday Night Football matchup. The Seahawks covered easily as 2.5-point road favorites and will be underdogs for the first time since upsetting the Detroit Lions 37-31 in overtime on the road in Week 2. They haunted New York quarterback Daniel Jones in their latest game, sacking him 11 times and tying a team record in the process. Jones was also picked off twice – with one resulting in a 97-yard touchdown return – and fumbled once in what was a dismal offensive effort. The Bengals will be a much different challenge.

The one game Seattle won in its last four games away from home as a dog was at Detroit, and combined with the team’s dominant effort at New York, should provide even more confidence. Cincinnati is a tough team but has still struggled at times, and pressuring Burrow will be the biggest key. The Seahawks need to make him feel uncomfortable in the pocket and make sure they blanket Chase as much as possible. Keep in mind, wide receiver Tee Higgins missed last week’s game for the Bengals with a fractured rib, and even if he plays, he will likely be uncomfortable and somewhat limited.

• Seattle are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle’s last 9 games.
• Seattle are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle’s last 10 games on the road.

Bengals News & Notes

Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow finally looked like his former self at Arizona, throwing for a season-high 317 yards and 3 touchdowns with 1 interception. All 3 touchdown passes went to wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who was held without a score through the first four games but erupted for 192 yards on a franchise-record 15 catches. That duo is nearly unstoppable when they are playing like they were last Sunday, and now they will have to face the new “Legion of Boom” secondary in Seattle led by rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon, who scored a touchdown in his last game. The Bengals will need to continue protecting Burrow and giving him enough time in the pocket to succeed. The good news is the Seahawks have dropped three of four on the road as underdogs.

• Cincinnati are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games.
• Cincinnati are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati’s last 8 games against Seattle.

Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DET -3 (-105) | O/U 41.5 (-105)

4:25 PM

Lions News & Notes

Detroit has quietly won three games in a row while the two NFC finalists from last year – the defending conference champion Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers – each improved to 5-0 last week. The Lions are fine with flying under the radar but also need to avoid falling victim to the upset bug as favorites.

They may have been a bit too overconfident leading up to their Week 2 overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks, who beat them 37-31 in a high-scoring affair at Ford Field for the second consecutive year. Since then, Detroit has played much better defensively, holding its last three foes to an average of less than 17 points, including last week’s 42-24 win over the Carolina Panthers.

Like Mayfield, Detroit quarterback Jared Goff has relished the opportunity to silence his critics since replacing Stafford in the Motor City. You can make the argument that Goff was underappreciated while playing with the Rams, and now he has a second chance to win with a very good team in the Lions.

Goff threw three touchdown passes and ran for another versus the Panthers despite not having his No. 1 receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen) due to injury. He must continue to lean on running back David Montgomery (six touchdowns) and take advantage of whatever the Tampa Bay D gives him here.

• Detroit are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games.
• Detroit are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
• Detroit are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against Tampa Bay.
• Detroit are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road.

Bucs News & Notes

Tampa Bay is coming off its best victory of the season prior to the bye, routing the New Orleans Saints 26-9 as a 4.5-point road underdog in Week 4. In fact, two of the team’s three wins have come as an underdog, something that new quarterback Baker Mayfield seems to relish going back to last season when he was a late replacement for Matthew Stafford with the Los Angeles Rams.

Mayfield has been a solid replacement for future Hall of Famer Tom Brady there so far, as the Buccaneers were just 2-2 through their first four games last year and still ended up making the playoffs with a losing record at 8-9. The schedule does get more difficult over the next three weeks though, which means Mayfield will need to continue to perform well in order for Tampa to stay over .500.

Tampa Bay was punched in the mouth by Philadelphia at home in Week 3 and then responded with its best game of the season. Detroit is another top NFC contender that is very well-rounded on both sides of the ball but still trying to shed the moniker of being the same old Lions.

Even with Brady for much of the past few seasons, the Buccaneers have gone 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games because the expectations were a bit too high. Things are different now, and Mayfield has to keep playing at a high level and not make any big mistakes if he is going to help end an 0-6 home skid ATS in this series.

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers

DAL -1.5 (-110) | O/U 50.5 (-115)

Monday at 8:20 PM

Cowboys News & Notes

Dallas had no answers for the San Francisco 49ers on either side of the ball in a 42-10 loss as 3.5-point road underdogs on Sunday night. Dak Prescott went just 14-for-24 with 153 passing yards, one passing touchdown and three interceptions in the loss. Prescott has been underwhelming in 2023 with 1,061 passing yards, five touchdown passes and four interceptions through Dallas’s first five games.

All five games that the Cowboys have played this season have been decided by 12 points or more. Dallas lost to the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco by double digits and defeated the New York Giants, New York Jets and New England Patriots by an average margin of victory of 31.7 points per game.

Los Angeles ranks dead last in the NFL in passing defense this season allowing 299.8 passing yards per game, and they’ve been better than average against the run allowing 104.3 rushing yards per game. Dak Prescott will need to bounce back from his worst game of the season and take advantage of this poor rushing defense to put Dallas in position to win on Monday night.

The Cowboys will also need a bounce-back performance from their defense. Dallas has been strong against the pass this season, but Brock Purdy torched this unit with four touchdown passes on Sunday night. Cowboys backers will need a much better performance against this dangerous Chargers offense.

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas’ last 9 games.
• Dallas are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games.
• Dallas are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against LA Chargers.
• Dallas are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against LA Chargers.

Chargers News & Notes

The Chargers went into their bye on a high note after defeating the Las Vegas Raiders 24-17 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 4. Justin Herbert had an underwhelming day in the passing game going 13-for-24 with 167 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception, but he did rush for two touchdowns and 27 yards on 12 carries.

Unlike the Cowboys who have played in nothing but blowouts this season, all four of the Chargers’ games have been decided by seven points or less. Los Angeles is 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in its last five home games. Austin Ekeler is expected to return from the ankle injury that has kept him out since Week 1 on Monday night.

Through their first four games played this season, the Chargers rank fifth in the NFL in total offense averaging 388.8 total yards per game and seventh in scoring averaging 27.5 points per game. And they’ve managed to do all that with arguably their best weapon on offense, Austin Ekeler, out for the last three games. Ekeler stated this week that there is a “99% chance” that he will play on Monday.

Los Angeles hasn’t played well on defense this season allowing 404 total yards and 26 points per game. That trend of poor defense will likely continue against the Cowboys, so it will be up to Justin Herbert and this high-powered Chargers offense to score enough points at home to pick up the upset win.

• The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers’ last 6 games.
• LA Chargers are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
• LA Chargers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.
• LA Chargers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas.