2023 NFL Week 8 Writeup

New York Jets @ New York Giants

NYJ -3 (-115) | O/U 43.5 (-110)

1:00 PM

Jets News & Notes

The Jets faded in the wake of Aaron Rodgers’ season-ending injury in Week 1, struggling to score in three subsequent losses, but have steadily rediscovered their defensive touch during their current surge. The Jets have allowed just 18.3 points per game over their past four outings, and have effectively contained some pretty good passers over that stretch, allowing just 208.8 passing yards per game and just five total scores while recording five picks. However, the Jets have amassed a dismal track record when coming off a bye, losing 13 of 15 including each of the past eight, and have scored more than 13 points just once in their past six. This team has enjoyed recent success despite a lack of production from quarterback Zach Wilson, who has failed to connect on a scoring pass in three of four outings, and completed fewer than 58% of pass attempts in three of five contests.

If there was ever a time for the Jets to discover a scoring touch, it would be this weekend against the offensively challenged Giants. While Zach Wilson has struggled as expected under center, he has still produced a respectable eight scoring passes over his past eight appearances at MetLife Stadium, and perhaps more importantly, he has tossed just one pick in his past four outings. Breece Hall has generated scoring runs in each of the past two games, and showed his stuff as a receiver in the squad’s Week 6 win over Philadelphia, making five catches for 54 yards. However, veteran rusher Dalvin Cook has yet to meet expectations since arriving in New York, compiling just 155 total yards in six games, including his 14-yeard performance two weeks ago against the Eagles.

• NY Jets are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Jets’ last 11 games.
• NY Jets are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games.
• NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against NY Giants.

Giants News & Notes

• NY Giants are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants’ last 5 games.
• NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants’ last 6 games against NY Jets.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers

JAX -2.5 (-110) | O/U 41 (-110)

1:00 PM

Jaguars News & Notes

The Jaguars held off a late New Orleans Saints rally to earn a 31-24 win on the road on Sunday as 2.5-point underdogs. Trevor Lawrence went 20-for-29 with 204 passing yards, 59 rushing yards and a touchdown pass in the win and Travis Etienne recorded 53 yards and two touchdowns on 14 rushing attempts. Jacksonville is now 4-0 SU and ATS over its last four games.

In their last 12 games against AFC opponents, the Jaguars are 9-3 SU and ATS. Jacksonville has won its last four games by an average margin of victory of 11.3 points per game despite never being favored by more than four points over that stretch.

Jacksonville’s defense has been a bit below average this season allowing 354 total yards and 20.9 points per game. As a result, the Jaguars have leaned heavily on their offense to win. Including last year’s postseason, Jacksonville is 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six games it has scored 21 points or more in and 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in the three games it has scored 20 points or less in.

This trend is likely to continue on Sunday. Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t good enough to keep up with the Jaguars when they are clicking, so a strong performance by Trevor Lawrence and the offense should be enough to get the job done.

• Jacksonville are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
• Jacksonville are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
• Jacksonville are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games against Pittsburgh.
• Jacksonville are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against Pittsburgh.

Steelers News & Notes

Pittsburgh scored 14 points in the fourth quarter to secure a 24-17 upset win as 3.5-point underdogs on the road against the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday. Kenny Pickett went 17-for-25 with 230 passing yards in the victory and scored one of the team’s three rushing touchdowns. Diontae Johnson caught five passes for 79 yards in his return from the injured list.

The Steelers are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games as an underdog. The defense ranks 30th in the NFL in total defense allowing 383.5 total yards per game but has managed to hold opponents to 21.2 points per game to rank 18th in scoring defense.

Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers

SF -5 (-110) | O/U 43.5 (-112)

4:25 PM

Bengals News & Notes

The Bengals entered their bye week on a high note with a 17-13 win at home against the Seattle Seahawks as 3-point favorites on October 15. Joe Burrow went 24-for-35 with 185 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and one interception in the win. Burrow has averaged only 205 passing yards per game through Cincinnati’s first six games, but he has thrown five touchdown passes in his last two starts.

Cincinnati is 2-0 SU and ATS over its last two games since opening the season with a 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS record. The Bengals shook off a 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS start in 2022 to go 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS over their last eight regular season games that year.

Cincinnati ranks 31st in the NFL in rushing this season averaging only 69.8 rushing yards per game. Things aren’t likely to get much better on that front this Sunday facing a 49ers team that ranks third best in the NFL against the run allowing only 79.3 rushing yards per game. If this offense is going to move the ball in San Francisco, it will likely need to be Joe Burrow doing the heavy lifting.

The real key to an upset win however could be the Bengals’ defense. Cincinnati is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the three games it has allowed 20 points or fewer in this season, and keeping San Francisco’s struggling offense in check would bolster the team’s chances at an upset.

• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati’s last 8 games.
• Cincinnati are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games.
• Cincinnati are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against San Francisco.
• Cincinnati are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games against San Francisco.

49ers News & Notes

The 49ers lost to the Minnesota Vikings 22-17 as 7-point road favorites on Monday night, one week after losing to the Cleveland Browns 19-17 as 9.5-point road favorites. Brock Purdy went 21-for-30 with 272 passing yards, one touchdown pass and two interceptions against the Vikings.

Purdy has compiled a 2-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the 49ers’ last two games after recording a 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the team’s 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS start to the season. Wideout Deebo Samuel missed the game against Minnesota with a shoulder injury and will be out again this Sunday. San Francisco is 10-0 SU and ATS in its last 10 home games.

Brock Purdy has been significantly better at home this season than he has been on the road. Purdy has completed 75.6% of his passes with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions in three games at home compared to a 62.2% completion rate, four touchdown passes and three interceptions in four games on the road.

Christian McCaffrey should be in line for a big game against this Bengals rushing defense that ranks 29th in the NFL allowing 142.8 rushing yards per game. Assuming the Bengals sell out to stop the run, Purdy is going to need to be a lot better than he has lately. The second-year pivot will need to take advantage of the Bengals stacking the box to stop the run in order to lead the 49ers to a win and cover.

• San Francisco are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games.
• San Francisco are 17-3 SU in their last 20 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco’s last 5 games against Cincinnati.
• San Francisco are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games at home.